The second round of the NBA playoffs should feature some good, competitive series. Let’s talk about some old playoff clichés in reference to each team in each matchup.
We know that defense wins championships and the best remaining defensive team will take home the crown.
Except it’s all about spacing in the playoffs, meaning the best shooting team is definitely the favorite. But those contradict each other, so if a good shooting and defensive team match up, it’ll be all about experience, so the more battle-tested team will win.
Unless the other team learned its lesson last year. Then maybe it’s that team’s time.
As you can see, when it comes to the NBA playoffs, there are so many adages that are accepted as conventional wisdom that some of them are bound to be right no matter who wins. These certitudes are often overemphasized, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have meaning.
Every team left in the playoffs has an old NBA adage on its side. Here are the obvious reasons that each team will advance to the conference finals.
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2 years ago Mike Leon, Nicholas McGee, Kyle Cunningham-RhoadsEastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers
Regular-Season Record: Cavs 64-18/Pacers 50-32 Regular-Season Series: Pacers 3-1 Offensive TRACR: Cavs No. 1/Pacers No. 7 Defensive TRACR: Cavs No. 8/Pacers 14th Overall TRACR Rank: Cavs No. 2/Pacers 11th Projected Winner (Win Probability): Cavs 84.1%The Cavaliers will win because… spacing wins in the modern NBA: The Cavaliers are still dealing with questions about whether their lineup construction can win in the playoffs. It features two big men sharing the court together and there are worries about their spacing when push comes to shove.
They have handled this problem with a simple solution; have everyone else on the roster go on a season-long heater from deep. The Cavaliers had eight different players who averaged at least 1.5 made 3-pointers per game and Donovan Mitchell shot the worst from 3-point range among that group at 36.8%.
Overall, the Cavaliers were fourth in 3-pointers made and second in 3-point percentage during the regular season. Spacing isn’t an issue for the Cavs; it’s an issue for their opponents. They often end up dazed on the receiving end of a flurry from outside – just ask the Heat about the start to Game 4.
The Boston Celtics proved how important 3-point shooting was during last season’s title run and the Cavaliers will follow suit and overwhelm the Pacers with their spacing.
The Pacers will win because… they’re equipped for the clutch. The Cavaliers boasted the second-best clutch record in the regular season, per NBA.com, but dig a little deeper and you’ll see the Pacers were the better clutch team. Indiana had a better field goal percentage and 3-point percentage in the clutch and the best plus/minus in clutch situations in the NBA. The Pacers were also the only team to average more free throws in clutch minutes than the Cavaliers this season.
The spacing was great for Cleveland in the regular season and against a Miami Heat team that featured Tyler Herro, who might as well have worn a sign on his back that said, “Attack Me,” but the Pacers should get enough stops to keep things close.
When they do, they have the antidote to Donovan Mitchell’s clutch gene with the maestro that is Tyrese Haliburton. He sets up the offense to get good shots in the half court in almost every clutch possession and the Pacers surround him with fearless players who aren’t afraid to take the big shot. The Pacers have been underrated dating back to last year’s conference finals run and you can underestimate them again at your own peril.
2. Boston Celtics vs. 3. New York Knicks
Regular-Season Record: Celtics 61-21/Knicks 51-31 Regular-Season Series: Celtics 4-0 Offensive TRACR: Celtics No. 3/Knicks No. 5 Defensive TRACR: Celtics No. 4/Knicks 12th Overall TRACR Rank: Celtics No. 3/Knicks 10th Projected Winner (Win Probability): Celtics 78.1%The Celtics will win because… they have the best player in the series. Jayson Tatum was the best player on the last season’s championship team and averaged 31.3 points in the first round of the playoffs. Good luck stopping that.
The Celtics have the best- or second-best depth in the league depending on how you value some of their players compared to what the Oklahoma City Thunder have. And if Tatum is also the best player in the series, it becomes almost impossible to beat the Celtics. Against the Knicks, Tatum is the best player by DRIP, eye test and reputation.
When the Celtics have lost in the playoffs recently, it’s because a player on the other team has clearly been the best player in the series. The Knicks don’t have a player better than Tatum, and that’s a real problem.
The Knicks will win because… Jalen Brunson is a bucket-getter. Maybe Tatum is the best player in the series, but that doesn’t mean he’ll play the best in the series.
When playoff games come down to the final minutes, it won’t be about Boston’s high-octane offense that pings the ball around until someone has an open 3-point attempt. The game will slow down and it won’t be about whose offense looks prettier or what the regular-season efficiency says. It’ll be about who can get a basket in isolation.
We mentioned the Pacers’ excellent team play in the clutch this year, but the individual who won NBA Clutch Player of the Year wasn’t on the Pacers. It was Jalen Brunson and that was before he did this.
JALEN BRUNSON FROM 3 TO WIN IT FOR THE KNICKS KNICKS ARE ADVANCING TO EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIS!!!#NBAPlayoffs presented by Google pic.twitter.com/sGmjcWhNdj
— NBA (@NBA) May 2, 2025Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 4 Denver Nuggets/No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Regular-Season Record: Thunder 68-14/Nuggets 50-32/Clippers 50-32 Regular-Season Series: Thunder-Nuggets 2-2/Thunder (vs. Clippers) 4-0 Offensive TRACR: Thunder No. 2/Nuggets No. 4/Clippers 13th Defensive TRACR: Thunder No. 1/Nuggets 19th/Clippers No. 3 Overall TRACR Rank: Thunder No. 1/Nuggets No. 8/Clippers No. 4 Projected Winner (Win Probability): Thunder 83.3%The Thunder will win because… defensive wins championships. Both of the Western Conference semifinal matchups are yet to be determined, but the Thunder are just waiting to see who their next victim will be. No matter which team comes out of the Nuggets-Clippers Game 7, the Thunder will have a rest and talent advantage.
Despite the saying, defense doesn’t always win championships, but the Thunder aren’t just good defensively. They’re an all-time great defensive team with a defensive efficiency more than two points better than any other team in the league. They’re on pace to finish with the fourth-best defensive TRACR we’ve recorded going to back to the 1986-87 season.
(*Heading Into Friday’s Action)The Nuggets and Clippers both pose unique challenges on the offensive end, but the Thunder defense has been up to every challenge this season. It doesn’t hurt that the Thunder also have the best offensive efficiency in the conference, either.
The Nuggets will win because… they get easy buckets. The Thunder don’t allow many easy buckets, but the Nuggets are better equipped to attack the Thunder defense than any other team in the league.
The best time to attack an elite defense is before it’s set and the Nuggets led the league in fast-break points per game. When the Thunder do settle into a defense, having the best player in the world that commands a double team on almost every possession helps ease the burden off the other players.
The Nuggets led the league in points in the paint and free-throw attempts this year as well. The Thunder have an elite defense, sure, but they don’t have anyone equipped to stop Nikola Jokic. Who does?
Nikola Jokic had 35 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists in his last game against the Thunder on March 8.If Jokic gets the best version of Jamal Murray playing copilot, the Nuggets can beat anyone.
The Clippers will win because… they have the ultimate 16-game player. Draymond Green once said there are 82-game players, and there are 16-game players. The 82-game players get teams through the regular season, but the 16-game players are the ones who matter in the playoffs.
Green is a great example of someone whose value shines more in the postseason, but there might not be a player who exemplifies this credo better than Kawhi Leonard. Health has been the issue for Leonard, but his playoff bonafides have never been in question.
There’s a reason Leonard still rates as a top-five player in the league in DRIP. He’s an efficient scorer in isolation and as a catch-and-shoot player off the ball. He’s also someone who gives opponents nightmares on defense. He’s one of the quintessential two-way players in the NBA.
OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely be named the NBA MVP of the regular season. But Leonard could be the MVP of the playoffs. It wouldn’t be the first time.
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 2 Houston Rockets/No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Regular-Season Record: Wolves 49-33/Rockets 52-30/Warriors 48-34 Regular-Season Series: Wolves-Rockets 2-2/Wolves-Warriors 2-2 Offensive TRACR: Wolves No. 6/Rockets 16th/Warriors 13th Defensive TRACR: Wolves No. 7/Rockets No. 5/Warriors No. 6 Overall TRACR Rank: Wolves No. 5/Rockets No. 9/Warriors No. 6 Projected Winner (Win Probability): Wolves 52.3%The Timberwolves will win because… it’s their time. The typical path to an NBA championship is a bumpy one. Teams take their lumps in the playoffs, learn some lessons, advance further, lose, learn some more lessons and then finally go all the way.
This could be the path for the Timberwolves. They finally got out of the first round last season, making it to the conference finals before losing in five games to the Dallas Mavericks. But they exercised some of those demons by beating Luka Doncic in the first round this year. Rudy Gobert, after a brutal first four games, dominated Game 5 with 27 points and 24 rebounds and enters the second round with his confidence back.
It’s not like the Timberwolves only have the narrative case going for them. They’re in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If they can apply all the lessons they’ve learned the past few years, they’re ready for any team that comes their way.
The Rockets will win because… they’re too young to be nervous. If the Rockets advance, they’re not going to be scared of the Timberwolves because of their playoff equity. They’ll have won three straight games against Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. No one on the Timberwolves is putting fear in them after that.
The Rockets have been up-and-down on offense in the playoffs, but the defense has been tough enough to keep them in games. Amen Thompson is a world-beating defensive player and one of the few in the league who can match Anthony Edwards in terms of confidence.
Jalen Green shook off a tough Game 1 performance to put up 38 points in Game 2. The Rockets are young, but they have enough talent to beat the Timberwolves and enough naivety to ignore any voices that say they can’t.
The Warriors will win because… they are playoff battle-tested. It may seem like it’s the Timberwolves’ time, but how many have seemed to be the team of destiny only to have Stephen Curry and Draymond Green ruin it for them?
Just ask the James Harden-led Rockets. Or the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook Thunder. Or Damian Lillard in his one run to the conference finals with the Blazers.
The Warriors have spent years ruining teams’ peaks. That era seemed like it was ending, but Jimmy Butler, a playoff hero in his own right, has revitalized it. The Warriors are contenders again until proven otherwise.
And with Curry, Butler and Green, that otherwise might never come.
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NBA Playoff Predictions: How Each Team Can Win in the Conference Semifinals Opta Analyst.
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