We thought the President had fallen out with Zelensky, only for a Vatican conversation between them to lead to an economic deal. We thought Trump’s team was stable compared to his first administration, only to find his National Security Adviser ousted after 100 days.
Now the surprise talks between the US and Iran on its nuclear capabilities – around which there have been positive atmospherics – may have been derailed by an outburst from the US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, when he issued a very public warning to Iran over its support for the Houthis in Yemen, that it would “pay the consequence at a time and place of our choosing”.
So, how to make sense of the nuclear diplomacy between US and Iran today?
Whilst Western media not unreasonably focuses on Iran’s regime governance domestically, its destabilising activity, and its backing of militant groups in the region, Iran sees a hostile and threatening US and Europe, who largely backed Saddam Hussein against them in the war of the 80s which may have cost over a million Iranian lives, and where chemical weapons were used by Iraq with no one in the west raising an eyebrow.
The US is leading a coalition carrying out air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen (Photo: Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu/ Getty)As for the US, I was one of the foreign ministers representing the so-called P5 +1 at a private UN meeting in 2017, called by Frederica Mogherini to seek to persuade the US not to abandon JCPOA and witnessed the first ever meeting between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
I also recall a pertinent conversation in Rome at a conference with Brian Hook, Trump’s Iran envoy during his first term, about maximum pressure. I asked him, “what if that doesn’t work?” And he said “Maximum pressure”, and I said “yes, I know, but still ….” “Maximum pressure.” There was no plan B.
Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani during his first term (Photo: AP)
The Gulf states are growing richer, better armed, and more self confident, and they are no longer prepared to be a potential battleground for a war between Israel and the US, and Iran, which would be catastrophic for a region whose economic success depends on stability. At the same time as some reached out to Israel, in the Abraham Accords, arguing for a vision of the Middle East which included Israel, they were also reaching out diplomatically to Iran, making the point that they would increasingly set their own policy choices. Just two weeks ago, the Saudi Defence Minister, and brother of de facto Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), visited Tehran.
Could Trump have been as appalled as many others at the carnage in Gaza? The shocked reaction of Netanyahu to the announcement made by the President in front of him on 12 April that talks were to take place between the US and Iran suggests maybe he was. Were the talks evidence that Trump’s administration, and business interests, are listening to Arab voices on Iran, rather than Israel’s?
square IRAN InterviewI was a nuclear weapons inspector - Iran could have a bomb in six months
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Make no mistake – the region does not want a nuclear Iran, not just for itself but for the inevitable consequences of nuclear proliferation. But an attack on Iran, if a clear alternative is available, is the least best option. Iran might seek what retaliation it could, and, in messaging terms, on social media and driven by countless millions, do not be surprised if the actions of the US were not characterised as being in support of a free and safe world, but simply acting as the arm of Israel, and repeating US errors of the past. It might not land well.
Despite hostile rhetoric from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Trump administration has yet to provide a clear and convincing answer to the question of what to do about Iran.
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