After all of the hoopla, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are back where they started with a tied series.
The team that wins Game 5 in a 2-2 series goes on to win the series very frequently, over 80% of the time historically. The Nuggets know from experience that it doesn’t always happen that way though. Against the Portland Trail Blazers in 2019 and against the Minnesota Timberwolves last year, the Nuggets won Game 5 at home and lost the next two games to be eliminated from the playoffs. There’s no relaxation if the Nuggets win. On the flip side, there’s no guarantee of elimination if they lose Game 5. The series has reset. Best two of three.
Let’s talk basketball.
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Los Angeles: James Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac
Key Bench Players
Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and DeAndre Jordan played in Game 4.
Los Angeles: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum, and Ben Simmons played in Game 4.
Notable Injuries
Denver: Michael Porter Jr. – PROBABLE (left shoulder sprain), Russell Westbrook – QUESTIONABLE (left foot inflammation), DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Los Angeles: None
Key for the Nuggets – A Series Reset or a Continuation?
All three of David Adelman, Jamal Murray, and Christian Braun were asked about a 2-2 series going to Game 5 and how much it resets expectations.
Adelman: “It’s a reset. I’ve said that throughout the series. This next game tomorrow will be completely different than the first four.”
Murray: “I mean, it’s both. I don’t know, it’s like, you win a game and everybody’s mind shifts, and then you lose the game and everybody’s mind shifts…as a player, you don’t have that luxury, you’re just even keel. You believe in what you believe.”
Braun: “Maybe a little bit of both. I think that you kind of look at it as now it’s 0-0 in a way, and now we’ve got two games to their one at home. That’s kind of how I look at it. At the same time…there’s been a lot of different adjustments made. You’ve kind of got to look back at the series and understand that there has been a lot that has happened.”
The players have learned and downloaded a lot of new information in how to approach each other, so in that sense, this is a continuation of what’s already happened. Still, things are going to change again, and resetting expectations to simply winning two of the next three games is a natural reaction after the emotional twists and turns of the first four games.
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Kris Dunn
It’s quite simply time for Jamal Murray to have a game.
In the first three matchups, he was solid in a lot of ways. He made some clutch shots, and he was perhaps the only guy other than Nikola Jokic to bring it for Game 3. That didn’t translate in Game 4, and Murray’s execution throughout the night wasn’t where Denver needs him to be to get more wins in this series.
Dunn has been fantastic as an overall defender in this series. Individually on Murray, there have been some opportunities Murray has missed. Murray’s maintaining 53.2% True Shooting on the series. That number has to go up if the Nuggets want to advance to the next round.
Series Adjustment – David Adelman finding bench minutes
The Nuggets played all five of their starters 42+ minutes in Game 4. It’s clear how gassed they were at the end of the game when the Clippers made a major comeback, but the Nuggets managed to survive. If that game went to overtime, they might not have.
I asked Adelman about finding time for bench players yesterday, and he countered with a different line of thinking: “I think the challenge of rotation is more so, when do you give our starters a break to get them back in?”
Between Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, DeAndre Jordan, Zeke Nnaji, Vlatko Cancar, and Dario Saric, the Nuggets have to find at least 40 combined minutes of time in Game 5. The starters can each average 40 minutes, but those last couple of minutes might make a difference by the end of a game. If Russell Westbrook plays, this equation certainly becomes easier.
Number of the Day – Rim Protection
This isn’t as much of a single number as it is a concept. Nikola Jokic has been a pretty good rim protector in this series. Full stop.
Playoffs Rim Protection Landscape Opponent Rim FGA Opponent Rim FG%
Who’s impressed/disappointed you the most defensively? pic.twitter.com/EUCVb1RtoR
— Hoopology (@hoopologyxx) April 28, 2025
It’s very often that we see Jokic in the bad quadrant in one of these graphics, getting attacked in the paint and finishing at a low level. Yet, Jokic has done a pretty good job individually in this series defending shots around the rim. The Clippers have attacked Jokic a lot, but he’s defending the rim at a pretty solid level, especially in comparison to where many expected him to be.
We knew Jokic would amp up the defensive intensity in the playoffs. How much he has to give, and how focused he is on every detail throughout the game, often get better over time. Jokic’s defense is always the subject of much debate, but for as much burden as he carries in the playoffs offensively, he seems to be faring well thus far.
Nugget who should have a good game: Christian Braun
The last time I predicted Braun would have a good game didn’t go so well for the Nuggets (Game 3) so let’s see if it works out better this time around. Braun is starting to figure some things out about James Harden throughout this series, and while Harden has a million counters, Braun’s learning and improving every playoff rep he gets. It’s an important reminder that Braun just turned 24 a few days ago. He has young legs, and in a series like this one, relentlessness plays well at Mile High.
I would expect Braun to make a larger impact in transition tonight, as well as with cuts. If he can get a three-pointer or multiple to go down, he could be the critical piece of Game 5.
Game 5 Preview: What to Watch for in Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers Mile High Sports.
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