Don’t count on Trump’s volatility saving Ukraine ...Middle East

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The pair are a study in contrasts that goes far beyond appearance and style. The American leader was born into great wealth, has been accused of cowardice by faking an injury to avoid being drafted into another war, shreds national interests on the altar of his vanity and is despised around much of the world.

Perhaps this is why Donald Trump seems to loathe Volodymyr Zelensky: he sees a reflection of his own weaknesses when he looks at the Ukrainian leader, puncturing his fragile ego. Afterwards, Zelensky said their talks had the “potential to become historic”. Only time will tell if this 15-minute discussion on the fringes of the Pope’s funeral marked a real breakthrough in the duo’s bumpy relationship or was simply another dramatic piece of theatre in the West’s disturbing betrayal of Ukraine. Sadly, I fear it is the latter – although I would love to be proved wrong.

It is horribly telling when a White House admonishment of Russia for slaughtering civilians is so unusual that it sparks flickers of hope the US President might not be a total Kremlin patsy. Yet his words only came at the tail end of a typically tedious blast on social media against The New York Times and blaming his predecessors for a war that supposedly would not have happened on his watch.

Perhaps he has become so frustrated by Vladimir Putin’s intransigence and the brutality of Russia’s killing machine that the White House will lash out and finally impose the sort of sanctions that might cripple Moscow’s ability to wage war. Some officials and analysts in Kyiv have clung to this hope: the belief that Trump’s fury and volatility might ultimately come to assist their fight for survival.

It would get to keep most of the land it has grabbed – about one-fifth of the country – along with US recognition of its rule over Crimea and lifting of sanctions, while Ukraine would be barred from joining Nato, have no real security guarantees and hand over natural resources to Washington.

In Trump’s fetid mind, however, accepting a carve-up allows the world’s great powers to get back to business. So he is assisting the aggressor by seeking to help Russia restore its finances and rebuild a shattered military that has become stuck in a bloodstained quagmire – while punishing the victim, ignoring war crimes and sweeping aside any suggestion of reparations.

Yet behind Ukraine’s rhetoric, there has long been acceptance they might need to accept some temporary loss of land while rebuilding their country.

square IAN BIRRELL

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One member of Zelensky’s team told me they had held such peace discussions early in the war, while I began to hear talk of the “German model” early last year. “There are many different ways in which we could return our territories,” said the mayor of one major city. “There are examples through history such as German reunification. It is crucial at this point of time for us to build a modern, economically strong and flourishing country that is able to bring those lands back.”

But this idea depends on protection from Moscow as they showcase the strength of countries freed from repression – which even Nato membership would no longer guarantee given the current mood in Washington. Instead we see efforts to enforce a putrid deal that accepts countries can seize and ethnically cleanse land belonging to others, undermining the settlement that has delivered prosperity and stability on our continent since the Second World War. 

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