In the chaotic first 100 days since President Donald Trump returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign that has upended parts of the rules-based world order that Washington helped build from the ashes of World War II.
Trump’s second-term “America First” agenda has alienated friends and emboldened adversaries while raising questions about how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a more traditional U.S. president is elected in 2028.
“What we’re seeing is a huge disruption in world affairs,“ said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations. “No one is certain at this point what to make of what’s happening or what will come next.”
Many say that while some of the damage already done could be long-lasting, the situation may not be beyond repair if Trump softens his approach. He has already backtracked on some issues, including the timing and severity of his tariffs.
The fallout has already begun.
The White House rejects the notion that Trump has hurt U.S. credibility, citing instead the need to clean up after what it calls former President Joe Biden’s “feckless leadership” on the world stage.
He said Trump was also “making the Houthis pay for their terrorism ... and securing our southern border that was open to invasion for four years.”
HIGH STAKES
But under Trump, who has been scornful of multilateral organizations and often views global affairs through the transactional lens of a former real estate developer, that world order is being shaken up.
Trump has called the tariffs necessary “medicine” but his objectives remain unclear even as his administration works to negotiate separate deals with dozens of countries.
The administration’s belittling of Europe and NATO, long the central pillar of transatlantic security but accused by Trump and his aides of freeloading off the U.S., has caused deep unease.
“This really is five minutes to midnight for Europe,“ Merz said.
With his blustery style, he has insisted that the U.S. will “get” Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish island. He has angered Canada by saying it has little reason to exist and should become part of the U.S. He has threatened to seize the Panama Canal, which was handed over to Panama in 1999. And he has proposed that Washington take over war-ravaged Gaza and transform the Palestinian enclave into a Riviera-style resort.
Even so, he has offered no details on how the U.S. could acquire more territory, and some experts suggest he may be assuming extreme and even over-the-top positions as bargaining ploys.
“When you demand to take over a part of the Kingdom of Denmark’s territory, when we are met by pressure and by threats from our closest ally, what are we to believe in about the country that we have admired for so many years?” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a news conference in Greenland in early April. “This is about the world order that we have built together across the Atlantic over generations.”
Other governments are also beginning to recalibrate.
Some countries such as Germany and France are looking at spending more on their militaries, something Trump has demanded but which could also mean investing more in their own defense industries and buying fewer arms from the U.S.
South Korea too has been rattled by Trump’s policies, including his threats to withdraw U.S. troops. But Seoul has vowed to try to work with Trump and preserve the alliance it regards as critical against the threat of nuclear-armed North Korea.
A key question is whether some governments will quietly hedge their bets by forging closer trade ties to China, Trump’s number one tariff target.
Beijing has cast itself as a solution for nations that feel bullied by Trump’s trade approach, despite its own record of sometimes predatory practices internationally, and is also trying to fill the vacuum left by his cuts in humanitarian aid.
If Trump holds firm, the next president could try to re-establish Washington’s role as guarantor of the world order, but the obstacles could be steep.
“What’s happening is not yet beyond the point of no return,“ said Miller, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “But how much damage is being done now to our relations with friends and how much adversaries will benefit is probably incalculable.”
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