Can Pep Guardiola’s side reach a third straight FA Cup final? We look ahead to Sunday’s semi-final at Wembley with our Man City vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview.
Man City vs Nottingham Forest Stats: The Key Insights
Manchester City beat Nottingham Forest across 90 minutes in 53.5% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in more goals in the competition proper than any other player (28 – 10 goals, 18 assists) since his FA Cup debut in January 2016. Forest are the first team to manage three penalty-shootout victories in a single campaign in the competition.Nottingham Forest and Manchester City will put their Champions League qualification hopes aside as they meet in the FA Cup semi-final on Sunday.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side and Pep Guardiola’s City are embroiled in an enticing top-five race in the Premier League, but their focus turns to this last-four clash at Wembley Stadium.
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2 days ago Matt Furniss, Oliver Hopkins, Ryan BensonForest’s route to this stage has been far from simple, having battled to a goalless draw in the quarter-final against Brighton before winning on penalties at the Amex Stadium. They also edged past Ipswich Town and Exeter City via the same method, making Nuno’s side the first team to win three penalty shootouts in a single FA Cup campaign.
Nuno’s side also lost on penalties to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup, with Chelsea in 2021-22 the only top-flight team to contest five penalty shootouts in a single campaign. However, they’ve won all five of their matches to go to penalties in this competition – no team have a better 100% ratio (Macclesfield Town and Stevenage also 5/5).
That penalty prowess has helped them reach the semi-finals for the 13th time in their history, though this is Forest’s first last-four appearance since reaching the 1990-1991 final when they lost to Tottenham under the guidance of Brian Clough.
Sunday will mark only Forest’s second appearance at Wembley since its reopening in 2007, previously beating Huddersfield Town 1-0 in the 2022 Championship play-off final. In stark contrast, this will be Man City’s 28th game at the ‘new’ Wembley as a neutral venue, with only Chelsea playing there more often (30).
City will be aiming to reach the FA Cup final for a third consecutive year, a feat they’ve never previously achieved. Guardiola’s side made their way to the EFL Cup final in four consecutive seasons between 2017-18 and 2020-21, too, and would be the first side to reach the showpiece of both major domestic trophies three seasons running.
Man City hammered Salford City and edged past Leyton Orient and Plymouth Argyle before their 2-1 comeback win over Bournemouth in the last eight. That tees them up for a seventh consecutive appearance in an FA Cup semi-final, winning three, including the last two in a row, and losing three of the previous six.
Kevin De Bruyne will hope this isn’t his last Wembley appearance in City colours, with his exit confirmed for the end of 2024-25. Since his debut in the FA Cup in January 2016, the Belgian has been involved in more goals in the competition proper than any other player (28 – 10 goals, 18 assists).
Ryan Yates scored the winning penalty against Brighton and has had a hand in eight FA Cup goals in 13 games for Forest (4 goals, 4 assists) since the 2021-22 campaign, which is five more than any other player. He will be suspended, however, along with Neco Williams, after accumulating two yellow cards in this competition.
That will be a massive blow to Nuno, who will aim to become the second Portuguese manager to reach the FA Cup final after José Mourinho (beat Manchester United with Chelsea in 2007 and lost to Chelsea with Manchester United in 2018).
Ola Aina and Taiwo Awoniyi are also doubtful for Sunday’s clash due to injury. Meanwhile, for City, John Stones, Ederson, Erling Haaland, Nathan Aké, and Rodri will all miss this semi-final due to injuries, having sat out of Tuesday’s last-gasp victory over Aston Villa.
Man City vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
Callum Hudson-Odoi‘s strike seven minutes from time snatched a 1-0 victory for Forest the last time these two sides met in the league on 9 March at the City Ground.
Forest last defeated City twice in the same campaign in 1989-90 (twice in the league, once in the Full Members Cup).
However, Nuno may fancy his chances considering City have lost four of their five FA Cup meetings with Forest (W1), most recently a 3-0 home loss in the third round in 2008-09.
Guardiola’s side did claim all three points in the reverse Premier League meeting, though, with Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku all on target in a 3-0 win back in early December.
Man City vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed Manchester City to win across 90 minutes, with Guardiola’s side triumphant in 53.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Forest hold just a 23.5% chance of victory in normal time despite their superior Premier League position this term.
Meanwhile, the draw was ranked at 23%, though Forest may not mind that too much given their extra-time, and penalty shootout, heroics so far this FA Cup campaign.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man City vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: FA Cup Semi-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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