MUFG sees ECB on track for June rate cut, with neutral territory in sight by year-end ...Middle East

euro area inflation now facing well-defined downside risks — from weaker domestic demand, falling energy prices, and trade diversionlittle reason to postpone normalising rates back to at least neutral, around 2%

ECB President Christine Lagarde recently acknowledged these risks, which MUFG views as more concrete than ongoing supply-side uncertainties. The analysts also flagged continued ambiguity around the scale and timing of potential fiscal stimulus measures, particularly in Germany, as a factor reinforcing the ECB’s short-term dovish tilt.

By year-end, greater visibility on the fiscal outlook could give the ECB the confidence to call time on the current easing cycle

The next meeting is June 5

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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