New figures reveal that the number of people receiving pension credit is set to fall from 1.37 million in 2025/26 to 1.21 million in 2029/30 – a drop of 155,000.
Pension credit acts as a so-called passport benefit, unlocking additional support such as cold weather payments, free TV licences for over-75s, and winter fuel payments, so lower claims mean many older people are missing out on these benefits.
The fall in claimants comes at the same time as the pension-age population is rising, meaning the proportion of pensioners receiving this vital support is likely to shrink even faster.
According to Government figures, the total number of pensioners on a state pension will rise from 13.1 million this year to 13.3 million in 2029/30.
“But what may not be appreciated is that as fewer and fewer pensioners are entitled to pension credit in future, this will mean fewer pensioners retaining help with their winter fuel payments.
Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, said it is likely that fewer pensioners would qualify for the benefit because pension incomes are rising, partly due to the triple lock on the state pension.
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The triple lock increases the state pension each year by the highest of inflation, earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent.
“The sting in the tail is that there will be lots of people who just miss out on pension credit, who will also miss out on the winter fuel payment following Rachel Reeves’s decision to means test the benefit,” he said.
Government push for pension credit
An expected drop in recipients comes amid a Government push in recent years to increase take-up, including high-profile campaigns, a dedicated “Pension Credit Day of Action”, and letters encouraging pensioners to apply.
Recent figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that more than 250,000 new pension credit applications were submitted in the 12 months to February 2025 – a marked rise compared to previous years, suggesting the campaign to raise awareness has had some short-term impact.
However, this increase in applications has reported to have led to delays.
Towards the end of last year, campaigners claimed some pensioners were waiting up to four months to receive a decision.
While claims can be backdated by up to three months, charities warned that the lag risked leaving many in limbo during the coldest periods of the year – especially those on the edge of eligibility who may not realise they qualify.
The Chancellor faced a fierce backlash, including from MPs in her own party, after she scrapped universal winter fuel payments in July last year, limiting the payments to those on pension credit.
With the number of claimants forecast to shrink, there are fears many vulnerable pensioners could be left without essential help in the coming winters.
“These stark figures should prompt the Government to think again about energy support for pensioner households before the next winter hits us.”
“These are the poorest pensioners in the country and have been totally forgotten by the dreadful decision to remove winter fuel payments from those pensioners living on far less than pension credit recipients.”
The DWP has been contacted for comment.
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