The upcoming election will be the first large-scale test of Nigel Farage’s poll numbers.
Voters across the country repeatedly raise the same concerns: there is lingering resentment toward the Conservatives and dissatisfaction with Labour’s giveaways and tax increases; and the decline of the high street and job insecurity are feeding public discontent in a Britain that feels broken. No wonder Reform is polling well.
All of which has translated into a sense – which Reform is naturally not keen to dispel – that its rise is unstoppable, like a Pac-Man munching through both Labour and Tory support. A poll commissioned by Daniel Friderichs, formerly a senior adviser to Farage’s GB News show, put the party’s support at 30 per cent. Another survey from the More in Common pollsters predicted Reform could be the largest party at a general election based on current polling numbers.
But perhaps we should all take a deep breath before we accept that Farage will be picking out new curtains in Downing Street after the next general election.
“There is no doubt that Reform have been the success story in the polls since the general election,” Joe Twyman, director of Deltapoll, told The i Paper. “But at the same time, there’s a lot of ambitious extrapolation going on among people who either don’t know better, or people who do know better, but it’s in their interests to talk up the strength of Reform.”Twyman said that while there is a lot of “excitement” about Reform’s national performance – and that it is “good for clickbait to say Reform could snatch the Red Wall from Labour” – the electoral reality is more complicated.
“The crucial thing about all polling (including MRP surveys) is that they cannot take account of local factors. Local issues, local candidates and local party machines all play their part in elections, particularly local elections, and that is not picked up in polls.
That’s not to say Labour and the Tories aren’t concerned. Sir Keir Starmer made a point of targeting Farage’s party in a campaign visit on Tuesday. “People talk about Reform, but what have Reform actually got to offer the country beyond moaning about everything? They’ve got no answers,” the Prime Minister said.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch has spent the past few months preparing her Tories for a likely wipeout at the locals: expectation management on steroids.
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“These elections are going to be very difficult for the Conservatives,” Badenoch told the BBC on Tuesday. “Two-thirds of the seats four years ago we won – there’s no way we are going to be able to do that again.” Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Badenoch has “already thrown in the towel”.
“Since last year’s general election, we have won 61 council by-election seats and gained 23 seats – which is more gains than all other opposition parties put together. Reform have won just 14 council by-elections since the general election,” Tory Party Chairman Nigel Huddlestone told The i Paper.
“I think Badenoch’s making all the right noises,” according to Andrew Hawkins, chief executive of pollsters Whitestone Insight. “At the moment, I think it’s more to do with tone, and it’s about making people feel that they’re on their side. The big question is, though, whether people believe what she says given the party’s track record in government, which is just simply going to take time to resolve.”
Reform hopes to give the Tories and Labour a walloping next week. But with just over a week to go, it’s not as clear cut as the headline polling figures would have you believe.
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