The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are two of the top Stanley Cup contenders in the NHL, but one won’t even see the second round. Here’s a breakdown of this blockbuster opening-round matchup:
Who has the edge?
Forwards
These are two of the best forward groups in the league. Several of Colorado’s key guys have missed big chunks of the season but produced at a prolific rate. After adding Mikko Rantanen, the Stars’ top three lines are balanced and terrifying. Tyler Seguin didn’t play for four months, but returned for the final game of the regular season. Gabe Landeskog didn’t play for almost three years, but could play in Game 1. Who comes out for the captain? The Avs now have 15 NHL forwards. Rantanen is the new bad guy, but Matt Duchene is an excellent villain. This is so, so close, but one side has the MVP. Edge: Avalanche
Defensemen
When will Miro Heiskanen play? How effective will he be? In a series that could be epic in scope but decided by millimeters, Heiskanen’s health could be the whole ballgame. He’s not expected for Game 1, at least. Dallas’ defensive numbers have plummeted without him, even though Thomas Harley is the real deal and could challenge Devon Toews as the third-best defenseman in this series. The Avs have a strong top-six, but will Josh Manson and Ryan Lindgren be ready and at their best? Sam Malinski finished the year strong. The Stars’ forwards pushed the Avs around at times in the series a year ago. Edge: Avalanche
Goaltenders
The 2024-25 regular season was as close as it gets, though Jake Oettinger scuffled a little at the end. Mackenzie Blackwood finished his season sixth in save percentage at .912 among goalies with 30-plus games played. Oettinger was 10th (.909). Blackwood was 9th (2.55) in goals against average, while Oettinger was 12th (2.59). Since Blackwood arrived in Denver, he’s 22-12-3. Oettinger in that span? He’s 22-12-4. So what’s the difference? Oettinger has 45 playoff starts. Blackwood has zero. Will that matter? Oettinger was also great against the Avs in the 2024 playoffs. Edge: Stars
Power play
The Avs are ninth in the league at 24.8%, while the Stars finished 17th at 22.0%. That’s a bit misleading, though, because the Avs scored just three more times with the man advantage (58-55) and yielded three more shorthanded tallies, so both clubs were plus-51 overall. Colorado has the best power play in the league since trading Rantanen (32.2%), but Dallas is sixth since then at 26.5%. That said, the Stars’ power play is only at 20.3% since trading for Rantanen. The Avs have also been generous with shorthanded chances allowed. One shorthanded goal against could swing a game or the series. Edge: Avalanche
Penalty kill
The Stars have one of the best penalty kills in the league, finishing fifth at 82.0%. The Avs were in the middle of the pack, finishing 12th at 79.8%. Again, sometimes just focusing on the percentages can be misleading, though. Dallas allowed 41 power-play goals, while Colorado allowed 42. The Avs were actually fourth in the league on the PK from Dec. 3 through the end of the season — swapping out both goaltenders made a huge difference. The Stars were seventh in that same span, and their goal difference while shorthanded was just two back of Colorado. The Avs have added several guys who kill penalties throughout the season. Will Landeskog get a chance as well? Edge: Even
Coaching
Oh look, another category where it’s splitting hairs. The Avs have collected the third-most points in the NHL over the past eight seasons. They are tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second-longest postseason appearance streak in the league. Bednar has won the Stanley Cup, while Peter DeBoer has not. There’s been some criticism of Bednar’s work in the postseason outside of 2022, but his postseason winning percentage (.605) is tops among current coaches. With all of that said, Bednar is 7-12 against DeBoer in the playoffs. DeBoer has eliminated the Avalanche in 2019, 2021 and 2024 — with three different teams. A series win would be as big for Bednar as anyone in the organization. Edge: Stars
— Corey Masisak, The Denver Post
Five things to watch
1. The return of the captain. Gabriel Landeskog hasn’t played in an NHL game since the Avs beat the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup on June 26, 2022. He went 1,020 days without playing at all because of right knee issues, including several procedures, but returned to game action this month via a conditioning stint with the AHL Colorado Eagles. The expectation is the forward will return to the Avs lineup for the series against the Stars, which would be a huge emotional jolt to the team, and quite possibly a statistical one as well.
2. History between divisional foes. The Stars beat the Avs 5-3 in Dallas on Nov. 29 in the first meeting of the Central rivals this season, but that was when Colorado still had Alexandar Georgiev in net and Mikko Rantanen on the wing. Since changing up the goalie, the Avs won the other two meetings, 6-3 on Jan. 18 and 4-3 in OT on March 16, both at Ball Arena, with the latter featuring Mikko in green. Scott Wedgewood was in net for both of those victories. While Saturday marks the start of a fresh series, can Colorado carry over the head-to-head momentum from the regular season?
3. Avs’ goalie situation. A pair of trades for goalies over 10 days changed the course of Colorado’s season. The Avs acquired Wedgewood from Nashville on Nov. 30 in a deal that sent away goalie Justus Annunen, then got Mackenzie Blackwood on Dec. 9 in a deal that included shipping Georgiev to San Jose. The trades paid off: Blackwood is 22-12-3 with a 2.33 goals against average, while Wedgewood is 13-4-1 with a 1.99 GAA. Coach Jared Bednar has two legitimate options to plug into the net.
4. Nathan MacKinnon’s status. After playing every game last season, MacKinnon was on track to repeat that feat this year before a minor injury sidelined him for the final three games. That cost the Avs center a shot at the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s scoring leader, as Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov edged him in points, 121 to 116. But Bednar said the decision to hold MacKinnon out was made because winning another Stanley Cup is most important to him, so expect to see a refreshed MacKinnon in Game 1.
5. Jekyll and Hyde. Which Avs team will show up against Dallas, and for the entirety of this playoff run? If Colorado plays as it’s capable — with two of the best players in the world in MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar dominating, while getting solid goalie play from whoever’s in net — the team is capable of dispatching the Stars and anyone else who stands in its way. But there have been spurts this season where a different, less focused team shows up. If Bednar can get the best out of the Avs, a title run is wholly within reason.
— Kyle Newman, The Denver Post
Staff predictions
Corey Masisak, Avs beat writer: The Stars are a great team when whole, but the underlying numbers without Miro Heiskanen have been bad. The results — seven straight losses to end the regular season — finally caught up. Jason Robertson was also hurt in Game 82. Remember, the Avs looked quite shaky at the end of last season as well, before bulldozing their way through Winnipeg. There are plenty of reasons why Dallas can win this series, but the recent data says Colorado should prevail. Prediction: Avs in six.
Kyle Newman, sports reporter: Games will be tight, but Colorado’s bold goalie trades in late November/early December will look even smarter in this series. After Nathan MacKinnon got a three-game breather at the end of the regular season, expect the reigning MVP to light this series on fire — with possibly some help in key moments from the captain, Gabe Landeskog. Plus, Cale Makar will continue to prove he’s the best defenseman in the world. Prediction: Avs in five.
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Avalanche vs. Stars schedule: Game times, TV info for NHL playoff series Keeler: Avalanche’s Valeri Nichushkin has trust of Colorado teammates who can’t win Stanley Cup without him Taylor Makar’s breakout season continues with first pro experience Gabe Landeskog returns to Avalanche practice as optimism for Game 1 abounds Avalanche captain Gabe Landeskog rejoins team after conditioning stintTroy Renck, sports columnist: A year later, the Avs are deeper, better in the net and, deep breath, boasting Val Nichushkin. When he plays, the Avs make a strong argument as the best team in hockey. There is no replacing the force and fury he creates with his size and speed. The Avs must play smart, efficient. Dallas is cold and calculated, pouncing on mistakes. Mackenzie Blackwood has never won a playoff game. As long as he doesn’t melt, the Avs will advance in ugly fashion. Prediction: Avs in six.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Mikko, Schmikko. The Finn that really matters is banged up. Dallas d-man Miro Heiskanen was a pain in the Avs’ backside in the playoffs last year. Now he’s just in pain after February knee surgery. Since Heiskanen last played on Jan. 28, the Stars rank among the NHL’s bottom 10 in goals allowed (10th-worst), “expected” goals allowed (second-worst) and “high-danger” chances allowed (sixth-worst). If Blackwood can steal a road game, the eyes of Texas will look elsewhere. Prediction: Avs in seven.
Lori Punko, deputy sports editor: Emotions will be running high as the Avs seek revenge for last year’s second-round exit. Dallas finished the season on a 7-game skid and leading scorer Jason Robertson left the arena in a knee brace after the regular-season finale. Meanwhile, Colorado has had nearly a week of rest and will be buoyed by the return of captain Gabe Landeskog. And let’s not forget that the Avs have something to prove against ex-teammate Mikko Rantanen, who was traded to Carolina and then Dallas. Prediction: Avs in six.
Series schedule
Game Location Date Time TV Game 1 Colorado at Dallas Saturday, April 19 6:30 p.m. TNT, truTV, ALT Game 2 Colorado at Dallas Monday, April 21 7:30 p.m. ESPN Game 3 Dallas at Colorado Wednesday, April 23 7:30 p.m. ESPN Game 4 Dallas at Colorado Saturday, April 26 7:30 p.m. TBS, truTV *Game 5 Colorado at Dallas Monday, April 28 TBD TBD *Game 6 Dallas at Colorado Thursday, May 1 TBD TBD *Game 7 Colorado at Dallas Saturday, May 3 TBD TBD(Click here to view schedule in mobile.)
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