The First Minister is facing calls to make clear that the plan pushed by his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon to make self-ID easier for transgender people is now dead.
Failing to make a clean break with Sturgeon on the issue could prove “hugely dangerous” going into next year’s election, pollsters, political pundits and SNP sources told The i Paper.
The case initially revolved around a challenge by For Women Scotland against the Scottish Government’s policy of including trans people in gender quotas – but widened to encompass the legal definition of a woman.
However, the First Minister said he would have to take time to consider how it impacts on the public guidance on gender issued by his ministers.
At the time it was approved by MSPs, a YouGov poll found 66 per cent of Scottish voters opposed the bill. The then-Conservative UK Government blocked the legislation, arguing that it interfered with reserved Westminster powers.
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SNP MSP Michelle Thompson, a leading supporter of Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, who made clear she was against the self-ID legislation, told The i Paper that the Swinney Government “must now drop self-ID entirely”.
Thompson warned the party would be out of step with voters if it did not change course. She said polling showed most voters “are concerned about the cost of living crisis and the NHS … not gender ideology”.
A SNP source warned Swinney that failing to change course now would be “disaster” for the SNP – hurting its chances of winning the 2026 Holyrood election and its attempts to revive the Scottish independence cause.
They added: “The problem is you can’t get independence without widespread support. It would reduce the chances [of support] if certain groups of people thought this kind of ill-thought-out legislation would be typical in an independent Scotland.”
Swinney’s Sturgeon problem
Prof Mitchell said the issue would not “quietly disappear” and would remain a major headache for Swinney.
“He faces the dilemma of deciding whether to take sides with Sturgeon and most of the Cabinet, who consist of Sturgeon appointees who remain loyal to her, or with Kate Forbes.”
Maciver also said it was unlikely Swinney would ever say he regretted his support for Sturgeon’s self-ID policy – given his recent comments. But the SNP leader can at least change Government guidance and abide by the Supreme Court’s decision, he said.
“If Swinney was seen to double down on the Sturgeon approach it would be highly dangerous. It would be a political problem going into the election. For that reason, I don’t he will [double down on the Sturgeon approach].”
Caption: John Swinney is being warned he must U-turn on Nicola Sturgeon’s pursuit of introducing gender self-ID (Source: PA)“He will be trying to keep this issue out of the election, because there is no good outcome for them on it.”
Former SNP MP Joanna Cherry called on Sturgeon to apologise for her stance. She also urged Swinney to “step up to the plate” and make sure guidance across the public sector was “re-written”.
Helen Belcher, chair of TransActual, called on Swinney to appeal the “clearly biased ruling”, and urged both UK and Scottish Government to develop a whole new approach to equalities law.
However, the Equality and Human Rights Commission has said it would not offer its own updated guidance for all services, including NHS and prisons, until the summer.
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