Can Ruben Amorim’s side get over the line at Old Trafford again in the UEFA Europa League? We look ahead to Thursday’s quarter-final second leg with our Man Utd vs Lyon prediction and preview.
Man Utd vs Lyon Stats: The Key Insights
Manchester United overcame Lyon inside 90 minutes in 47.9% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. United remain unbeaten across their 11 Europa League games this season (W6 D5). Rayan Cherki’s 11 goal contributions in the 2024-25 competition is the most of any player.Manchester United once again face a winner-takes-all encounter at Old Trafford as they prepare for the visit of Lyon in Thursday’s UEFA Europa League quarter-final second leg.
As was the case against Real Sociedad in the previous round, Ruben Amorim’s side will have home advantage as they attempt to reach the last four in this European competition.
These two sides shared a 2-2 draw at the Groupama Stadium in the first leg. Leny Yoro‘s first goal for United cancelled out Thiago Almada‘s free-kick, before Joshua Zirkzee thought he’d struck an 88th-minute winner. But Rayan Cherki ultimately snatched a stoppage-time leveller.
André Onana was at fault for both Lyon goals after his war of pre-match words with Nemanja Matic, and the United goalkeeper was subsequently left out by Amorim in Sunday’s 4-1 hammering by Newcastle United.
Replacement Altay Bayindir made a mistake for Bruno Guimarães goal in that chastening defeat and is expected to drop back out for Onana’s return on Thursday, when United will hope to extend their 11-game unbeaten run in the competition (W6 D5). Not since reaching the UEFA Champions League final in 2010-11 have the Red Devils began a European campaign by avoiding defeat in as many opening games.
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At the other end of the pitch, Rasmus Højlund has recorded 12 goal contributions for United across European competition (10 goals, 2 assists) since the start of last season. Only Mohamed Salah (80) and Bukayo Saka (88) have a better minutes-per-goal contribution ratio than the Denmark international (96) among Premier League players to have recorded 10 or more in that period.
Amorim can also call upon the ever-reliant Bruno Fernandes, who teed up Zirkzee’s late header in France. The United captain now has 18 assists in UEFA’s second-tier competition, the joint most by any player since its rebranding in 2009 (level with Dries Mertens).
However, Lyon have their own star attacking threat. Cherki has recorded 11 goal contributions across his 11 Europa League games this season (3 goals, 8 assists). That’s the highest tally in the competition this term, while no player has ever recorded more assists in a single campaign (also Diego in 2011-12).
Cherki was also on target, along with Alexandre Lacazette and Georges Mikautadze, as Lyon climbed to fourth in Ligue 1 with Sunday’s 3-1 victory at Auxerre. That win was in keeping with Paulo Fonseca’s side’s form on the road in Europe, given they are unbeaten across their last 12 away Europa League games (W9 D3) since a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta in December 2017.
That being said, Lyon have failed to progress from all nine of their prior ties between 1964 and 2019 when drawing the first leg on home soil in the knockout stages of a major European competition.
As for team news, Zirkzee limped out of the Newcastle defeat with a hamstring strain, joining Jonny Evans, Matthijs de Ligt, Amad Diallo and Lisandro Martínez as absentees for United. Ernest Nuamah is out for the rest of the season for Lyon, while Malick Fofana has missed the last four games due to a knee issue.
Man Utd vs Lyon Head-to-Head
United won both prior clashes with Lyon at Old Trafford in major European competition, though they were so long ago that they’ll have little bearing on this. They managed a 2-1 victory in November 2004 and 1-0 triumph in March 2008.
However, United have lost each of their last two home European games against French opposition – both against Paris Saint-Germain (2-0 and 3-1 in February 2019 and December 2020).
They were unbeaten across their prior 14 matches against French sides between 1965 and 2017 (W10 D4), though.
Lyon will still be confident given they have lost just one of their last nine European games against English sides (W4 D4), a 3-0 defeat to West Ham during the 2021-22 Europa League.
Man Utd vs Lyon Prediction
United have a 63.1% chance of reaching the semi-finals in Opta’s tournament predictions, far greater than Lyon’s 36.9% likelihood of progressing at Old Trafford.
Indeed, Amorim’s side ran out as victors in 90 minutes across 47.9% of 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Lyon still hold a 26.1% chance of winning in normal time, with the draw – which would mean extra-time and possibly penalties – rated at 26.0%.
Man Utd vs Lyon Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man Utd vs Lyon Prediction Opta Analyst.
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