AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The cold phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) known as La Niña is now officially over with ENSO Neutral (neither La Niña or El Niño) taking over for the near future.
The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center marked an end to what was a short and weak La Niña that was very late to begin in the first place.
The rest of spring, summer and even into fall are likely to fall in the ENSO Neutral phase, where connections between the atmosphere and the weather in your back yard may not be as frequently talked about.
ENSO Forecast (CPC/NOAA)It is fairly well documented the connections that La Niña or El Niño can have in the winter time.
La Niña typically mean warmer and drier winters in Central Texas, whereas El Niño winters are cooler and wetter.
But now that we're in an ENSO Neutral spring, what could that mean for our rainfall?
Spring so far...
This spring so far in Central Texas has been warm and dry. March 2025 ended as the 4th warmest on record in Austin with only limited rainfall.
Our drought has continued to worsen, with much of the area experiencing "extreme" drought or worse.
Drought Monitor latestSeason to date we've only had 1.95" of rain at Austin's Camp Mabry and we're already halfway through meteorological spring. We should have picked up 4.09" of rain since March 1 through April 15.
Rain during the first half of springMay through the first half of June is typically our wettest part of the year and is still to come. Just how hot our upcoming summer will be may hinge on how dry (or wet) we end this spring.
What could an ENSO Neutral spring mean for rain?
History isn't always the perfect predictor of the future, but it can help for pattern recognition. So what can previous ENSO Neutral spring seasons (March-May) tell us about what might be favored for the rest of this spring?
ENSO Neutral spring seasons & rainfall
I looked at the last 10 ENSO Neutral spring seasons and how much rain fell at Austin's Camp Mabry:
2023 (10.12") 2020 (14.73") 2017 (6.56") 2014 (10.25") 2013 (10.42") 2010 (7.33") 2009 (7.65") 2007 (15.21") 2006 (15.71") 2005 (8.15")An average spring in Austin (March-May) has 10.34" of rain. Looking at the last 10 ENSO Neutral spring seasons, six out of 10 were drier than normal. Not particularly telling of a trend in such a sample size...so let's keep digging.
ENSO Neutral spring seasons following La Niña & rainfall
We can narrow the data down more than that and find the spring seasons (March-May) that were ENSO Neutral AND came immediately after a La Niña winter (December-February) to more accurately reflect the 2025 setup.
Here are those years and the rainfall at Austin's Camp Mabry:
2023 (10.12") 2009 (7.65") 2006 (15.71")With just three years satisfying the criteria, I looked back even further for additional years that fit. Here's are some of the other more recent years with ENSO Neutral spring seasons coming after La Niña winters:
2001 (9.28") 1996 (4.32") 1984 (3.82") 1965 (13.19)Summary
Of the last seven times where an ENSO Neutral spring season had followed a La Niña winter, only two of those seven were wetter than normal and five were dry. While still a limited sample size, we're able to gather a little more of a connection between this current pattern and spring rainfall.
Spring rain when spring season is ENSO Neutral after La Niña winterBottom line, this doesn't bode well for this spring season, which is already starting off drier than normal.
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