BMO: Tariff escalation means too early to call a 'risk' bottom ...Middle East

While markets still operate on the assumption that Trump is leveraging aggressive tariffs as a negotiating tactic aimed at securing meaningful concessions from Beijing, there is little evidence to suggest that a breakthrough is imminent. In fact, BMO notes that recent developments suggest a lengthier and more uncertain path toward any durable agreement between Washington and Beijing.

In BMO’s assessment, if the bulk of these new tariffs remain in place, the "best worst-case" scenario would be a period of stagflation—characterised by stagnant growth and sticky inflation. The more severe downside risk would be a deeper economic recession, as real consumer spending begins to falter under the weight of higher prices and diminished purchasing power.

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ps. Globex has reopened for evening trade, S&P 500 and NASDAQ eminis have extended their falls:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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