Leicester City are drifting towards relegation after one of the worst runs of form the Premier League has ever seen. Here, we break down the numbers behind that spell.
In some sense, Leicester City are lucky Southampton have been as bad as they have this season.
The south-coast club have given challenging Derby County’s record as the worst Premier League team ever a good go, and in doing so, have rather taken the heat off Leicester.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side do have seven more points to their name than Southampton (though the former Manchester United striker can’t claim to have contributed much towards that, as we’ll come to), but after picking up 14 of their 17 points before 8 December, they have in recent months produced one of the worst runs of form the Premier League has ever seen. And it deserves attention.
Following Monday night’s 3-0 defeat at home to Newcastle United, Leicester have lost 15 of their last 16 league games, as well as each of their last eight in a row without scoring a single goal. Only Crystal Palace in January 1995 have ever endured a longer run of losses without scoring in the history of the competition (nine games).
Their win over Tottenham on 26 January is the only bright spot in a long, long list of defeats. It was also, more than two months ago, the last time Leicester managed to score a goal.
That game came on the road, though, and part of what has made this season so disappointing for Leicester fans is just how bleak things have been on home soil.
The Newcastle loss meant Leicester became the first team in the history of the top four tiers of English football to lose eight consecutive home league games without scoring. That really is an astonishing achievement.
The last time their home fans saw the team score a Premier League goal was when Bobby De Cordova-Reid netted a stoppage-time equaliser in a 2-2 draw against Brighton. Since then, Leicester have conceded 21 goals without netting even once.
Every other Premier League side has scored at least four home goals since Leicester last did. Twelve teams have scored at least 10 in that time.
While being way below par, however, Leicester may also count themselves a tad unfortunate. They have had 81 shots in those eight games since their last goal and have produced 6.54 expected goals, but have failed to find the net even once. Their underperformance compared to their xG in that time is the worst in the league, hinting at a serious lack of quality and confidence, and – if we’re being generous – a bit of bad luck.
They even ‘won’ the xG battle in two of those home games – against the two Manchester teams – though only just on both occasions (1.3 to 1.27 vs City; 1.05 to 0.91 vs United). They lost those games 2-0 and 3-0, respectively.
They have not been helped by a leaky defence, having allowed their opponents 13.5 xG in those eight games. However, four teams (Southampton, Tottenham, Ipswich and West Ham) have conceded more xG in that time, and maybe the fact that they have shipped 21 goals from chances worth 13.5 xG will add to the feeling of misfortune.
But there’s no denying they have been historically bad since Van Nistelrooy was brought in in the winter. He was supposed to stop Leicester’s slide towards the bottom of the table, but his stint has been little more than a complete disaster.
He has averaged just 0.37 points per game and has taken the club from 16th in late November to 19th in early April. They are 15 points adrift of safety with just 21 left to play for. Relegation is a near certainty.
Van Nistelrooy’s future is surely up for question now. With Monday’s defeat to Newcastle, he became only the second manager in Premier League history to lose eight successive home games in the competition, after Daniel Farke in September 2021 with Norwich City. His four-game caretaker spell in charge of Manchester United, in which he oversaw three wins and a draw, feels like a long, long time ago, so it’s hard to imagine him getting another opportunity at this level any time soon.
With or without him, though, Leicester City are heading straight back to the Championship. They will need to do things very, very differently if they are back in the top flight again any time soon.
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