Southampton’s Tyler Dibling will be linked with Premier League clubs when Saints are relegated, but would that be the best move for his development?
It took Tyler Dibling less than seven minutes in his first Premier League start to produce a moment of quality that the uninitiated would come to see as him in a nutshell.
The then-18-year-old relatively nonchalantly moved towards a Mateus Fernandes pass inside his own half, but as the ball arrived at his left foot, he let it run before suddenly dashing after it. Diogo Dalot took the bait and Dibling was away, gliding through the Manchester United half all the way to the penalty area.
The closer he got to the box, the more his touches of the ball became delicate so as not to invite a challenge. As he broke into the area, the recovering Dalot was brushed off again and then moved to Dibling’s right, allowing for the youngster to drop his shoulder and curl a left-footed effort goalwards.
Had André Onana not thrown himself to his right and pushed the effort away, Dibling almost certainly would’ve opened his Premier League account. But regardless of his first goal not arriving until the following weekend against Ipswich Town, the Southampton teenager’s performance felt like an arrival.
He gave Dalot the runaround that afternoon, especially before half-time. In the 27th minute, he drew a free-kick from the Portugal international to the right of the United box after darting beyond him for a second time.
Then, the third such instance saw Dibling win a penalty off the United defender, who clumsily lunged in in desperate fashion after the agile winger left him for dead and purposefully made his way towards goal.
Of course, the story of that match ended up being turned on its head as Cameron Archer missed the penalty and United scored their first goal of a 3-0 win just two minutes later. But it was an important day nonetheless for Dibling, whose reputation has continued to grow pretty much ever since.
A couple of months later, then-Southampton boss Russell Martin literally laughed off the idea that United themselves might try to snap Dibling up for £21 million in the January transfer window.
“I’m not sure you’ll get his left foot for that,” he said.
Suffice to say, reports and rumours relating to apparent interest in him or Southampton’s valuation of him have been frequent over the intervening months, and with relegation all but a certainty for Saints, those will probably only become even more intense in the coming weeks.
The latest stories pertain to numerous publications suggesting Southampton value Dibling at £100m. Now, before we go any further, the idea that any club would pay that much for him – regardless of whether Saints actually value him that highly or not – is complete nonsense. It simply won’t happen, nor should it. It’ll simply be a reflection of the typical posturing that goes on between clubs and agents at this time of year.
Either way, Dibling will command a hefty fee if he leaves in the summer, with his technical talents undoubtedly making him a very interesting proposition for many clubs. And there’ll be plenty of coaches convinced they can take him to another level as well.
There’s a solid foundation of a player there already, of course. His ability on the ball coupled with his obvious confidence and bravery ensure he has a lot going for him as a wide player.
“He’s such a calm and confident boy in the nicest way,” Martin said of him in September. “As long as he maintains his sense of self, his character and his personality – and that’s up to us to help him do that along with his family – then I’ve got no worries about him.”
Dibling’s clearest strengths lie in his ball carrying. Blessed with impressive close control, courage on the ball and an agility that belies a fairly languid on-pitch manner, he’s a threat both in tight spaces and with acres to run into.
As such, Dibling tends to carry the ball over much longer distances than many other players. For instance, this season the average distance of his ball carries is 13.5 metres; among the 42 wingers who’ve played at least 900 minutes in the Premier League, only three rank higher than him.
Similarly, he carries the ball 206.4m on a per-90-minute basis, which is the seventh furthest among the same group of players.
Of course, carries as a metric in isolation can be somewhat misleading, and simply moving with the ball for at least 5m isn’t itself a sign of amazing talent. But Dibling’s carries frequently see him engage defenders, which not only paints a positive picture of his daring nature but also highlights a desire to take responsibility.
So, among the same group of wingers as mentioned before, he ranks third on a per-90 basis for carries with a take-on (3.1), only behind Mohammed Kudus (3.2) and Jérémy Doku (6.7). So not only is he happy to take on possession, but this attitude is coupled with the ability to evade those who try to stop him.
In fact, he’s already more comfortable than most in this respect, as he’s recorded 14 instances of beating multiple opponents in a single carry, which again only Kudus (17) and Doku (18) can better.
And it cannot be said that he doesn’t offer progression or a desire to get into dangerous positions in these scenarios.
For example, we’ve already highlighted carries combined with take-ons and how he ranks very high in terms of frequency, but beyond that, those forays see him progress the ball by 9.1 metres on average; that’s roughly the same as Kaoru Mitoma and Doku, and behind only Iliman Ndiaye (9.8m) and Marcus Rashford (9.2m) among those same wingers this season.
And on top of that, only four wingers – all of whom play for established big clubs in Manchester City and Liverpool – have recorded more take-ons that drive possession into the box than Dibling (7).
There is a perception among some fans, however, that Dibling’s output has diminished somewhat over the past few months.
In his first 13 Premier League appearances of the season, he averaged 3.7 dribbles, 0.76 shot-ending carries and 3.5 progressive carries of at least 10m. In his most recent 13 appearances, those figures have dropped to 2.7, 0.46 and 2.5, respectively.
That doesn’t automatically mean he’s playing poorly, but those declines do coincide with more questions about his form and effectiveness.
It doesn’t help that he hasn’t scored since December and isn’t yet an especially reliable creator.
While ‘assists’ isn’t always the best barometer of creativity, Dibling’s zero in that column is somewhat mirrored by what some might feel is an underwhelming total of open-play chances created of 17 – and one of those was credited despite technically being a mishit shot.
There are 31 nominal wingers/wide forwards in the Premier League this season who’ve laid on more chances to teammates than Dibling, and nearly half of them have played fewer minutes.
Of course, you have to remember that he’s playing in the worst team in the division, and that obviously has an impact. But his minimal creative output isn’t just indicative of the generally lower quality of his teammates.
Expected goals (xG) assisted is a metric that measures the xG total of shots taken following chance-creating passes. Dibling’s 1.25 xG assisted in open play means the average xG value of the chances he’s laid on has been just 0.08, which is the fifth lowest among wingers to have played at least 900 minutes.
Essentially, for the most part, the passes he plays before a teammate gets a shot away aren’t being played into very dangerous positions.
Granted, that could still mean he’s found teammates in threatening areas only for them to fail to get a shot away. However, that’s where expected assists (xA) comes in. It’s a model that measures the likelihood a given pass will become an assist, rewarding players who pass into dangerous positions regardless of whether the receiver takes a shot or not. However, Dibling’s 1.18 xA is the seventh lowest among those same wingers and wide forwards.
Nevertheless, at Premier League 2 level last season, he laid on 2.4 open-play chances on a per-90 basis, which was bettered by only five players who played at least 400 minutes. So, that should offer some encouragement.
Similarly, he’s shown he isn’t afraid to have a crack at goal himself, regardless of the distance. After all, 44.4% (12/27) of his shots have been from outside the area this term, which is well above the average (30%) for the 113 players to have registered at least 25 attempts. Several of them have gone close, however, and many of these instances offer additional insight to Dibling’s belief, which must be seen as a strength at his age, even if there’s also a hint of selfishness on some of those occasions.
On the subject of age, it cannot be ignored that Dibling only turned 19 in February, so it’s perfectly natural that there are gaps in his game. Developing decision-making might even occur subconsciously simply through playing more, and that will almost certainly aid his creativity.
But that does make the idea of leaving Southampton at this point seem questionable. While he’s proven he can acquit himself perfectly well in some respects in the Premier League, he’s obviously also got plenty of developing to do. Would a move to, for argument’s sake, Man Utd or Tottenham provide him with a better opportunity to progress in his own time than staying with Saints in the Championship?
He’s already left Southampton once before, joining Chelsea as a 16-year-old. But a variety of factors influenced an inability to settle, and he went back the other way without a fee being exchanged about six weeks later.
Some Premier League clubs may be able to offer an effective developmental environment, but opting for stability and dropping down a division might ultimately be the smartest move. The Championship has been a very rewarding proving ground for many up-and-coming players over the past decade in particular, with the league’s intensity and physicality valuable in shaping well-rounded talents.
While there’s never a guaranteed right answer in such scenarios, Dibling of all people should recognise the value of stability. Right now, he’s a talented player with significant potential but still with a lot of room for growth, so playing every week in the Championship next term arguably offers a greater chance to develop than rushing to stay in the Premier League.
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Tyler Dibling: Already a £100m Player or a Prospect Who’d Benefit From a Season in the Championship? Opta Analyst.
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