The lack of upsets may have made the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament less fun, but now the best teams from March Madness are left competing in the Final Four.
The final weekend of March Madness isn’t always the best. But this year, it should be.
This weekend is the culmination of very few upsets and all the No. 1 seeds winning their bracket for the first time since 2008. Upsets are fun and give us Cinderellas to root for, but too often those Cinderellas see the clock strike midnight later in the tournament and we’re left with a blowout as one team outclasses another.
But this year? This year, we ate our vegetables. We watched the four best teams in the country show their mettle and leave no doubt as to who should remain alive heading to the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Sure, that meant less chaos and fun in the earlier rounds, but now, hopefully, we’ll get the dessert we’ve been eyeing since the meal started.
We have a Final Four in which all the teams have at least a 20% chance of taking home the championship, per TRACR. Duke has looked like the best team, but could easily be taken out by the great defensive Houston team. Florida beat Auburn two months ago, but that’s no guarantee of success the second time around.
We have two semifinal games Saturday night that are truly up in the air. Hopefully, they will live up to the hype.
Here’s what will decide who advances to Monday night’s championship game.
The championship-winning probabilities of the Final Four teams.Florida vs. Auburn
Out of all the games in the tournament, this feels the most appropriate.
The SEC was the best conference all season, shattering the record for the most teams from one conference in the NCAA Tournament with 14. Auburn and Florida were the best of the bunch, with Auburn taking advantage of a slow start by the Gators in conference play and winning the regular season title with a 15-3 record. Florida responded by winning the conference tournament after Auburn lost in the semifinals to Tennessee.
The Gators handed the Tigers their second loss of the season on Feb. 8, winning 90-81 at Auburn. So these teams are intimately familiar with each other as well.
Neither team is going to be surprised by what the other one does. Games like this often come down to how adaptable a team can be on both ends. Star forward Johni Broome isn’t going to get the easy looks he’s had in some games this season. Auburn didn’t do a good enough job of containing Walter Clayton Jr. the first time around, but you better believe coach Bruce Pearl will have his team’s focus on the dynamic senior guard on Saturday.
Broome or Bust?
Johni Broome’s struggles were a big reason why Florida upset Auburn earlier this season. Broome scored 18 points on 8-of-19 shooting and will need to be better for Auburn to gain its first championship game appearance.
You’d expect one of the best players in the country to bounce back, particularly after his great game against Michigan State in the Elite Eight. He probably will have better numbers simply because of his talent, but it’s not as simple as asking him to hit shots he missed. Auburn will have to be better prepared as a team for the defense Florida deployed against Broome.
Auburn does a good job getting Broome the ball with room to operate. Room for Broome isn’t the same as “space” for other players; he doesn’t get the ball without a defender on him often because he demands too much attention. It means getting him the ball in situations where it’s hard for other defenders to help on him. Auburn will take its chances with Broome in a one-on-one matchup without help any day of the week.
The normal help rules don’t apply to the 6-foot-10 Broome on the post, as Michigan State found out. If a defense doesn’t commit to the help shortly after he gets the ball, it might as well not help at all because Broome is the best player in the nation at maneuvering away from where other teams send help.
Broome is more than a post-up player, too. He loves to slip the screen on pick and rolls or roll to the free throw line or farther back to try and get the ball in a favorable matchup before any outside help arrives.
The Gators know this and will emphasize not letting Auburn’s guards get the ball to Broome in these situations. When Broome’s defender steps up to corral the ballhandler, whoever is defending the ball handler will try to get between the ball and Broome and make it impossible to get the pass to him when he pops.
Auburn’s guards have to do a better job of taking advantage of these situations. They need to continue to penetrate and force the issue. Broome also needs to mix in more rolls all the way to the basket. He’s not the typical dive center, but he needs to do more diving to keep Florida’s defense honest.
Board Games
Both of these teams are good at offensive rebounding and subpar at defensive rebounding. Combine that with how good both defenses are, and second chances could be the difference in the game.
Auburn won the offensive rebounding battle in the first game 15-11, but both teams had plenty of opportunities. If one side focuses on rebounding as a team defensively, it will be a huge advantage. There will always be some rebounds that get away from the defense with how relentless each team attacks the offensive glass, but cleaning up simple missed box outs can go a long way.
Sometimes, players can get so focused on the macro concepts on defense that they forget to do simple things. But the game is often decided on simple things. Defensive rebounding is going to be a huge factor in this game.
Win Probability: Florida over Auburn (53.7%)
Houston vs. Duke
The other semifinal matchup is a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immoveable object.
Duke was the nation’s best offensive team during the regular season and has been even better in the NCAA Tournament. Ditto to Houston’s defense. Now, we’ll see which side can impose their will on the other.
The Line of Action
It’s exciting enough that this is the best offense against the best defense generally, but even more exciting when you drill down on the specifics at the 3-point line.
These are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. Houston had the highest 3-point percentage among major conference teams and Duke was fourth. When you factor in that Duke was also top-10 in 3-point attempts, you could argue the Blue Devils were the best shooting team in the country. Houston was tied for 17th in attempts among major conference teams, which is still a reasonably high volume as well.
In the tournament, Houston’s shot the ball well on 3s at 39.1%, second-best among the teams that made it to the Elite Eight. But Duke is lapping the field, shooting 47.3%.
Defensively, Houston is allowing teams to shoot just 24% on 3s in the tournament, though. The Cougars’ defensive discipline was on display against Purdue. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad (and the Blue Devils, for that matter) will allow a decent amount of 3-point attempts, but force their opponents to shoot a low percentage from behind the arc, a style of defense that has worked for a lot of teams this season.
Houston will need every ounce of its trademarked discipline to disrupt Duke’s offense. It’s easy for a defense to say it wants to make sure to close out on shooters and force the Blue Devils into bad shots. It’s a lot harder when Cooper Flagg demands extra bodies in the post, Khaman Maluach is setting hard screens and you’re trying to win a race of recovery against a team moving the ball like a blur around the perimeter.
Tyrese Proctor has frequently found himself at the end of the line of Duke ball movement, and that’s been bad news for Blue Devils opponents. Proctor is shooting a blistering 64.0% on 3-pointers in the tournament and 41.2% on the season. He’s a master of the pump fake and relocation, which comes in handy when the defense is scrambling.
The cat-and-mouse of the help-and-recover will be the thing to watch. If Houston can help inside and on drives without tilting the defense so much that it can’t get back to shooters, they’ll have a chance of slowing down Duke. But if we see a lot of scrambling defenders desperately trying to close out last minute, the Blue Devils will get the shots they want, and they’ve been drilling those shots at an unparalleled clip as of late.
On the other side of the ball, Houston’s strategy has been about finding the hot hand. Houston’s three starting guards can all make a scrambling defense pay, so there’s nowhere for teams to help from on the perimeter that won’t get exposed. The Cougars make an opponent pick its poison, but all three doses are lethal.
Against Gonzaga, L.J. Cryer hit 6 of 11 3-point attempts. Milos Uzan hit 6 of 9 3s against Purdue. And Emanuel Sharp hit 4 of 10 against Tennessee.
Duke might want to help as little as possible and force Houston to beat it inside the arc. That’s a strategy that can hurt, too, as Gonzaga saw firsthand when J’Wan Roberts had 18 points and five assists against it. But Roberts needed 18 shots for those 18 points and Duke is better equipped to handle these matchups without a ton of help.
Ultimately, this game seems likely to come down to 3-point shooting. Duke is the favorite for a reason, but there isn’t a team better equipped to stop Blue Devils’ 3-pointers and match them on the other end than Houston.
Win Probability: Duke over Houston (56.1%)
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Final Four Predictions: Who Will Win Florida vs. Auburn and Houston vs. Duke? Opta Analyst.
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