If you had told any Texas A&M fan before 2024 that the Aggies would have a path to the 12-team College Football Playoff in the regular-season finale, they would’ve been a notch below Johnny Manziel levels of fired-up.
Playoff expectations weren’t real heading into Year 1 of the Mike Elko era. And sure, maybe beating Texas and Georgia in the SEC Championship in consecutive weeks to reach the Playoff wasn’t a realistic expectation, but it was at least a possibility. That will be lost in the shuffle of what turned out to be a disappointing end to 2024. The team that was last to lose an SEC game ended up with 5 losses and without an AP Top 25 ranking in the final poll.
Nobody should be putting Playoff expectations on the Aggies. A program without a Playoff berth and just 2 AP Top-25 finishes during those 11 years is one thing, but the lack of a single 21st-century conference title game appearance is another. If the preseason outlook is “Playoff or bust” for A&M, you’re looking at this all wrong.
But 2 things can be true at the same time. While that’s not where the expectation should be, nobody should be surprised if A&M actually breaks through and gets there for the first time in 2025.
Wait a minute. A Playoff path? For A&M?
Let’s move past the fact that one of Elko’s offseason tasks was teaching a secondary how to defend zone coverage — he admitted that after the bowl game loss — and focus on what the Aggies have working in their favor. They’ve got an 8-win team that ranks No. 6 in percentage of returning production. It’s a team that’ll have continuity at quarterback with Marcel Reed, who’ll operate behind an offensive line with all 5 returning starters. If you recall, offensive line continuity with a veteran quarterback was the backbone of A&M’s 2020 season, which included the program’s best AP Top 25 finish (No. 4) since 1939. All-SEC running back Le’Veon Moss will be working his way back from a torn ACL, but the return of a healthy Rueben Owens is promising for Year 2 of the Collin Klein scheme.
Yes, the loss of Noah Thomas and Jabre Barber will be tough to stomach, but NC State transfer KC Concepcion is a proven star at this level. Even if it’s a thin receiver room, Reed getting a full offseason with the first-teamers will be beneficial after he was inconsistent as a passer in 2024. Only 14.8% of his throws were 20 yards downfield, and he had an adjusted completion percentage of 27.8% on those throws, which was 15th among 16 qualified SEC QBs, and his 46.2% adjusted completion percentage under pressure was also last in the SEC.
That’s part of the reason why A&M doesn’t deserve Playoff expectations in the way that LSU does, despite the fact that we know how that game went last year.
Speaking of that game, which was Reed’s coming-out party, that was part of an SEC home slate that included A&M’s 4 biggest games. That’ll be a different story this year with those games flipped. Four of A&M’s 5 road games are against teams that won at least 9 games, and that’s not including home games against a South Carolina offense that torched the Aggies in Columbia last year and a DJ Lagway-led Florida squad that essentially pulled off the inverse of the Aggies’ finish.
That’s why 7.5 wins (at -152 on FanDuel) is a fair regular season over/under. The most likely scenarios for this A&M team are still 7-5 or 8-4. You know, where A&M finished 10 of its 13 regular seasons since it joined the SEC. Perhaps the single least-surprising result for any SEC team would be A&M finishing with 7-8 regular season wins. I’m fully acknowledging that.
I’m also acknowledging that a team that went 8-4 in the regular season who ranks No. 6 in percentage of returning production with a top-10 portal class and its coordinators back is a strong candidate to … improve by a game and go 9-3. As we learned last year from the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, a 9-3 team from the SEC is going to get legitimate 12-team Playoff consideration.
Look at A&M’s schedule. You’ll see something evident. These 3 games will have A&M as an underdog and it’d be a surprise if anything but an 0-3 mark was the result:
at Notre Dame at LSU at TexasThose are likely 3 preseason top-10 teams for an A&M squad with 2 true road wins vs. Power Conference teams in the last 3 seasons. Even though the Aggies went 1-2 in those games last year — all of which were 4-quarter games — let’s not assume victories in those games. If A&M gets 1 of them, that’s turning heads.
We’ve got that out of the way. Now look again at A&M’s schedule and tell me what other games fall into that camp:
vs. UTSA vs. Utah State vs. Auburn vs. Mississippi State vs. Florida at Arkansas at Mizzou vs. South Carolina vs. SamfordA few things are worth noting.
Yes, Auburn and South Carolina beat A&M last year. Those were also road games. Auburn, who held on in a 4-overtime game after A&M dropped a game-tying score in the end zone to end the game, had a combined 13 points in its previous 2 trips to Kyle Field, while South Carolina is 0-5 in College Station, where the last 3 losses were all decided by double digits.
Reed beat Florida convincingly in his first career start last year in Gainesville, though that game will have a different vibe with DJ Lagway running the Florida offense.
Not only did Mizzou get blown out 41-10 with a healthy Brady Cook last year, but A&M has outscored the Tigers a combined 76-24 during the Eli Drinkwitz era.
And as Arkansas fans know all too well, A&M always finds a way to win that matchup, which it did in 12 of 13 meetings since joining the SEC (I realize that nearly all of those games came in Jerry World and that’s not a true road game like what we’ll start to see in 2025).
My point isn’t that A&M is a lock to win every one of those games. I’ve got questions about the defensive line replacements, the need for a post-spring portal addition at outside receiver and, as Elko would attest to, whether the Aggies can actually understand zone coverage in 2025.
But A&M caught some by surprise in Year 1 by starting off 5-0 in SEC play. It came back down to earth with those 3 SEC losses to end the season. Still, though. Looking back, what about that 5-0 start in conference play felt like an out-of-body experience? And what about winning those 9 games in 2025 would include an out-of-body experience? Having an elite defensive mind like Elko find answers? Having an offense that posted the most points per game in SEC play improve in Year 2 in the scheme?
Some will misconstrue that as a declaration that the Aggies are Playoff-bound, and this is nothing more than a typical optimistic preseason schedule projection. That’s not the case. When I do my A&M Crystal Ball in August, there’s a good chance that 8-4 will be the prediction and nobody will think twice about it.
Just don’t dismiss the possibility that Elko, who isn’t Jimbo Fisher or Kevin Sumlin, established more of a Year 1 developmental foundation than outsiders realized. Improvement is never truly imminent in the SEC, though it helps to have the returning pieces that Elko has.
If that results in A&M finally earning that first Playoff berth, nobody should need to pick their jaws up off the floor.
Texas A&M hasn’t earned College Football Playoff expectations, but don’t be stunned if first bid awaits in 2025 Saturday Down South.
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