Barclays: We expect 30% tariffs on China, 10% on other countries in baseline scenario ...0

Key Points:

30% tariffs on China, 10% on other countries in baseline scenario.

Consumer Behavior:

Anticipated consumer concerns—job losses, higher prices, and weaker equities—could drive a rise in savings, reducing consumption.

Europe: 10% tariffs expected; forecast for Q4/Q4 2025 growth is 0.4%.

Global: Q4/Q4 2025 growth seen at 2.5%, with CY 2025 at 2.9%.

Barclays views the anticipated US tariffs as a meaningful drag on global economic momentum, especially in 2025. While not the worst-case scenario, the expected average 15% tariff rate would still mark a sharp protectionist turn. Markets should prepare for slower global growth, more cautious consumer behavior, and potential financial market volatility.

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On this topic, here is a chart from Deutsche Bank highlighting historical tariff levels and where this will shake out.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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