No. 11 seed San Diego State is Carolina’s first opponent in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels and Aztecs will compete in the First Four in Dayton Tuesday night, with the winner taking on No. 6 seed Ole Miss in Milwaukee the following Friday. San Diego State finished tied for fourth in the Mountain West Conference and have a 21-9 overall record.
If you aren’t familiar with the Aztecs, here’s a quick breakdown:
Head coach: Brian Dutcher. Dutcher is a two-time Mountain West Coach of the Year, having won the award in consecutive seasons in 2020 and 2021. He has led the Aztecs to two straight Sweet 16 appearances, including a run to the national title game in 2023. Overall, San Diego State has made the NCAA Tournament in six of his eight seasons – though one of the seasons the program didn’t qualify was 2019-20, when the tournament was cancelled due to the COVID pandemic. The Aztecs finished that season with a 30-2 overall record and likely would have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the tournament field.
San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher watches during the first half of the team’s NCAA college basketball game against UNLV on Tuesday, March 5, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Image via Associated Press/Lucas Peltier)
What’s the history? Carolina and San Diego State have met only twice in men’s basketball. The Tar Heels won both times: a 103-92 victory in San Diego on December 29, 1988 and a 99-63 win in Chapel Hill on November 24, 1990. Ironically, current UNC head coach Hubert Davis played in both games, scoring 16 points in the 1990 win. This is the first NCAA Tournament game between the two programs.
Player to Watch: Nick Boyd. The Aztecs’ leading scorer and assister, Boyd was named second team All-Mountain West this season. The crafty senior guard from New York is one of just two Aztecs to start all 30 of his team’s games this season. He also has Final Four experience – just not with San Diego State. Boyd was a member of the Florida Atlantic team which made a memorable run to the Final Four in 2023, ironically losing to San Diego State on a buzzer beater in the national semifinals. This season, Boyd averages 13.4 points, 4.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game. His 35.7 three-point percentage ranks second on the team among players who take at least two per game.
Stats to watch: San Diego State has built a winning culture around tough defense, and this season is no different. The Aztecs’ defensive efficiency rating (measuring how many points a team gives up per 100 possessions) is 93.5, which ranks 13th in the nation on KenPom.com. This season, UNC has played seven games against teams which rank in the Top 13 in defensive rating: Duke (three times), Michigan State, Florida, Kansas and Auburn. It could be a bad omen: the Tar Heels lost all of those games. Another strong metric for the Aztecs: they lead the entire nation in field goal defense. San Diego State opponents have shot just 37.8 percent from the floor this season.
The good news? San Diego State’s offense is well below average for an NCAA Tournament team. The Aztecs’ offensive efficiency rating is 109.8, which ranks 111th in the nation, per KenPom. Only 10 teams in the tournament field of 68 have a worse offensive rating, and all of them are seeded 13th or lower. San Diego State’s adjusted tempo, measuring the average amount of possessions per game, is 66.0, which ranks 245th. The Tar Heels will have to work hard to play their up-and-down, high-scoring brand of basketball – but if they do, it will take the Aztecs out of their game.
San Diego State’s size could present problems for the Tar Heels, whose relative lack of size has been well-publicized this season. The Aztecs’ normal starting lineup includes six-foot, ten-inch forward Jared Coleman-Jones and seven-foot forward Magoon Gwath – the Mountain West’s Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year. That imposing frontcourt has helped San Diego State block 5.5 shots per game, which ranks eighth in Division 1. Though UNC’s recent lineup changes have helped them present a bigger frontcourt, on the season teams playing the Tar Heels average four blocks per game, one of the highest rates in the nation. Gwath’s availability will be an X-factor: he has not played since late February with a knee injury, though college basketball insider Jon Rothstein reports Gwath will likely return to the court in Dayton.
San Diego State's Magoon Gwath (knee) is available for the NCAA Tournament if the Aztecs are selected, per Brian Dutcher.
Has not played since 2/22.
Averages 8.5 PPG and 5.2 RPG.
Gwath was the Mountain West Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year.
Significant Bubble News.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 16, 2025
Linked forever: UNC’s basketball connection with San Diego State is thin at best, but its connection with head coach Brian Dutcher is not. Dutcher was a longtime assistant under former San Diego State head coach Steve Fisher, who led the Aztecs from 1999 through 2017. Dutcher was also on Fisher’s staff at his previous head coaching position: Michigan, from 1989 through 1998. Dutcher was on the bench during the 1993 national title game between the Tar Heels and Wolverines, when Michigan star Chris Webber infamously called a timeout his team didn’t have, resulting in a technical foul which sealed the win for UNC.
What are the odds? As of Monday, UNC is a 3.5-point favorite in the game.
For more information on how to watch the game, click here.
Featured image via Associated Press/Jeff Chiu
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UNC Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament Opponent Breakdown: San Diego State Chapelboro.com.
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