Former Cal star and WNBA All-Star Layshia Clarendon breaks down the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament and shares which teams are poised for a deep run.
It’s that time of year. March, and the madness is electric.
I recall the joy of Selection Sunday my senior year, holding hands with my teammates, staring up at the screen waiting to hear our name called. We screamed as the California Golden Bears were revealed as the No. 2 seed, the highest in school history. Our gritty, fun loving, eclectic group danced all the way to the 2013 Final Four.
One of my proudest sports accomplishments.
March is about joy, living in the moment, and most importantly, intense college basketball competition. It doesn’t matter what you did up to that point. Win or go home isn’t just a fun sports saying. The pressure is paramount. Getting an opportunity to dance in March is what the college season is all about. The women’s game has grown tremendously over the last decade and has exploded in recent years with a variety of talent and storylines.
Can Dawn Staley and the 2023-2024 national champion Gamecocks repeat? What noise can Iowa make without Clark and Martin? Is Texas Overrated? Is it Final Four or bust for USC? What underdogs will emerge and steal our hearts?The star power will be on full display with the likes of Juju Watkins, Flau’jae Johnson, Hannah Hidalgo, Paige Bueckers, Kiki Iriafen, Lauren Betts, Madison Booker, MiLaysia Fulwiley, Ta’Niya Latson, Aziaha James, Kiki Rice and many more.
There are so many things to consider, especially when you factor in the scoring of our Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket, which rewards you for nailing upset picks.
The scoring system is based on our supercomputer running simulations of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. If you pick a team that has a 70% chance of advancing past the first round and that team wins, you’ll receive 30 points (100% minus the percentage chance your selection will advance). If it has a 45% chance of advancing past the second round to the Sweet 16 and again advances, you’ll get 55 points. If it has a 20% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and you get that pick right, you’ll get 80 points. With that in mind, I’ve highlighted some upset picks that could get you plenty of points if they come through.
Selection Sunday should be a national holiday. We’ll get to working on that. In the meantime, here are my absolutely biased opinions.
Regional 1 – Spokane
My 2 Cents: UCLA, fresh off a Big Ten conference tournament win over USC, is the heavy favorite. The combo of Kiki Rice and Lauren Betts anchors the Bruins. Betts finished in the top five in the Big Ten in scoring defensive, rebound, and blocks. If we look ahead at the National championship game. UCLA versus South Carolina could be a buzz-worthy matchup in Tampa.
NC State could make a deep run but the big question for me is Aziah James’ health. She was getting buckets versus Duke in the ACC tournament and it seemed like NC State’s game to lose when she took a hard fall along the baseline. She did return in the second half but the team could not recover.
NC State with a healthy version of her is lethal. Saniya Rivers boasts WNBA talent. Zoe Brooks is a consistent combo guard. NC State’s guard play is phenomenal but the team is extremely young and vulnerable inside. NC State’s greatest asset is breaking people down 1-on-1 which can also be the team’s greatest weakness at times when ball movement is key.
Dark Horse: Florida State. Ta’Niya Latson is a walking bucket and doesn’t get enough national attention. Combine that with what Makayla Timpson can do inside and that makes for a dangerous duo. I think the Seminoles have the toughness and just enough star power to take on LSU.
First Round
No. 1 UCLA over No. 16 UC San Diego No. 9 Georgia Tech over No. 8 RichmondNo. 5 Ole Miss over No. 12 Ball State No. 4 Baylor over No. 13 Grand CanyonNo. 6 Florida State over No. 11 George MasonNo. 3 LSU over No. 14 San Diego State No. 10 Harvard over No. 7 Michigan State No. 2 NC State over No. 15 Vermont
Second Round
No. 1 UCLA over No. 9 Georgia TechNo. 5 Ole Miss over No. 4 Baylor No. 6 Florida State over No. 3 LSUNo. 2 NC State over No. 10 Harvard
Sweet 16
No. 1 UCLA over No. 5 Ole MissNo. 2 NC State No. 2 6 Florida State
Elite Eight
No. 1 UCLA over No. 2 NC State
Regional 4 – Spokane
My Two Cents: USC vs. UConn in the Elite Eight seems like something that should be happening in the Final Four. It is the JuJu vs. Paige rematch. Back in December, USC came out on top and Juju won the head-to-head matchup against Paige. While Juju finished with 25 and Paige 22, Watkins’ overall stats were more impressive and efficient across the board. What I’m most excited to see with this potential matchup is how UConn game plans against the Trojans.
Geno Auriema and the Huskies, who won the Big East tourney, are hungry for revenge and a trip to the Final Four. USC failed to make it to the Final Four last season and is riding the wave of putting USC back on the women’s basketball map as the historical powerhouse it is.
But here’s the plot twist; March is about our hearts. I’m a California Golden Bear, and USC has been a deep-seeded rival for years in the Pac-12. I’m going with my Bears, with one of the best 3-point shooting duo’s in the country, to take down USC on their home court. And picking Cal to win in the second round could give me 89 points compared to the 22 points I’d get for going chalk with USC. So the scoring rewards me following my heart.
Worst case, JuJu vs. Paige rematch. I’ll settle for that if needed. I’m calling Iowa over Oklahoma and looking forward to seeing Hannah Stuelke and Raegan Beers go at it.
First Round
No. 1 USC over No. 16 UNC GreensboroNo. 8 California over No. 9 Mississippi State No. 5 Kansas State over No. 12 FairfieldNo. 4 Kentucky over No. 13 LibertyNo. 6 Iowa over No. 11 Murray StateNo. 3 Oklahoma over No. 14 FGCU No. 10 South Dakota State over No. 7 Oklahoma StateNo. 2 UConn over No. 15 Arkansas State
Second Round
No. 8 California over No. 1 USC (Please basketball Gods!)No. 4 Kentucky over No. 5 Kansas StateNo. 6 Iowa over No. 3 Oklahoma No. 2 UConn over No. 10 South Dakota State
Sweet 16
No. 4 Kentucky over No. 8 CaliforniaNo. 2 UConn over No. 6 Iowa
Elite Eight
No. 2 UConn over No. 4 Kentucky
Regional 2 – Birmingham
My Two Cents: South Carolina. Dawn Staley. That’s it. Perhaps the committee thought the previous national champions needed a bit of motivation in giving the Bruins the No. 1 overall seed. A chip on the Gamecocks’ shoulder, perhaps. March is March so nothing is promised but it looks like South Carolina’s Final Four opportunity to lose. What Dawn has built from the ground up while delivering sustained success should absolutely be heralded.
I’m picking Vanderbilt as a sleeper to upset No. 2 Duke. Shae Ralph has led the team to back-to-back tournament appearances, she knows end of game situations well and they could make some noise. Duke, while solid defensively, has struggled at times to consistently knock down open shots. The Blue Devils are led by one of the great basketball minds in Kara Lawson. I want this game to come down to a nail biter of timeouts, great drawn up plays but ultimately players on the court being the deciding factor. When you factor in Vandy potentially getting me 62 points with a win over Duke in the Predictor Bracket, I think it’s worth taking a shot on the Commodores.
Also, North Carolina could give South Carolina a run for its money. The Tar Heels have solid guard play with Reniya Kelly’s midrange game, Lexi Donarski’s 3-point shooting, and overall toughness with Alyssa Ustby. They’re also extremely well coached by Courtney Banghart.
First Round
No. 1 South Carolina over No. 16 Tennessee TechNo. 9 Indiana over No. 8 UtahNo. 5 Alabama over No. 12 Green BayNo. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Norfolk StateNo. 6 West Virginia over No. 11 WashingtonNo. 3 North Carolina over No. 14 Oregon State No. 7 Vanderbilt over No. 10 Oregon No. 2 Duke over No. 15 Lehigh
Second Round
No. 1 South Carolina over No. 9 Indiana No. 5 Alabama over No. 4 Maryland No. 3 North Carolina over No. 6 West Virginia No. 7 Vanderbilt over No. 2 Duke
Sweet 16
No. 1 South Carolina over No. 5 Alabama No. 3 North Carolina over No. 7 Vanderbilt
Elite Eight
No. 1 South Carolina over No. 3 UNC
Regional 3 – Birmingham
My Two Cents: TCU had an awesome year and with Madison Conner, Hailey Van Lith, and Sedona Prince they’re boasting an impressive Big 3 right now. Prince is a large target down low but can also step outside, making her a unique weapon. I would love to see a Texas vs TCU Matchup in the Elite Eight but I don’t think it’s going to happen because of the Fighting Irish.
They did not finish the season on a high note, ending on a 3-2 record heading into Selection Sunday after being so dominant. Sometimes those losses are just what you need to remind you that rankings of the past don’t matter. You’ve got to show up every single night. Unfortunately, watching Texas play South Carolina gave me pause about them.
Is it fair to measure the Longhorns up against the defending champs? Absolutely. Because at some point, Texas can’t only hang its hat on defense. It will only take the Longhorns so far. There are too many high-octane players and programs out there. You’ve got to score. Madison Booker cannot do it alone and the team’s offensive production is too unpredictable. Maybe the Longhorns actually have the biggest chip on their shoulder. I’m actually going to call it a 3-way tie between Texas, Notre Dame and TCU. They all have a lot to prove under the bright lights of March.
First Round
No. 1 Texas over No. 16 High PointNo. 8 Illinois over No. 9 CreightonNo. 5 Tennessee over No. 12 South FloridaNo. 4 Ohio State over No 13 Montana StateNo. 6 Michigan over No. 11 PrincetonNo. 3 Notre Dame over No. 14 SF AustinNo. 7 Louisville over No. 10 Nebraska No. 2 TCU over No. 15 FDU
Second Round
No. 1 Texas over No. 8 IllinoisNo. 5 Tennessee over No. 4 Ohio State No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 6 MichiganNo. 2 TCU over No. 7 Louisville
Sweet 16
No. 1 Texas over No. 5 TennesseeNo. 3 Notre Dame over No. 2 TCU
Elite Eight
No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 1 Texas
Final Four
No. 1 UCLA over No. 2 UConn No. 1 South Carolina over No. 3 Notre Dame
National Championship
No. 1 UCLA over No. 1 South Carolina
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March Madness 2025: Layshia Clarendon’s Expert Women’s NCAA Tournament Picks Opta Analyst.
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