The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.
Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed.
Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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