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The Tar Heels are beginning ACC tournament play in the losers’ bracket.
Carolina is in a very unusual position going into today’s game against Notre Dame in the second round of the ACC tourney.
The loser of this game goes home to start preparing for next season. UNC has only been in that situation five times since the NCAA expanded to more than one team from each conference in 1975. Dean Smith and Bill Guthridge had teams that never missed the Big Dance after that year. Matt Doherty did not make it in his second and third seasons. Roy Williams missed it once (2010) and would not have made it in 2020 if COVID hadn’t wiped out the end of that season. Hubert Davis’ 2023 team didn’t make it.
Unfortunately, the loser today will play their last game of this season. Notre Dame, at 15-17, won’t be invited to the NIT. Carolina likely won’t play in the NIT since the transfer portal opens March 24, and Hubert needs new players.
So, for both, it is a do or die game.
But, if the latest data is to be believed, the Heels could play their way back onto the NCAA bubble by winning today and beating Wake Forest in Thursday’s quarterfinals. One poll says Carolina has a 61.5 percent chance of making the NCAA tournament with two more wins. Of course, by upsetting Duke in the Friday night semifinals, that would be 100 percent.
Though they may be slightly favored in both, the Tar Heels did not play like that in their one-point games against each during the regular season. At South Bend, the Heels looked like a sure loser until Elliot Cadeau made that memorable four-point play in the final minute and then stopped Markus Burton’s drive for the winning layup as the buzzer sounded. In the game at Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem that had 13 lead changes, Wake Forest held off a late charge to beat UNC 67-66.
Since then, the Deacons went 5-6 to fade from NCAA contention. The Irish lost 10 more times but have won five in a row after beating Pitt Tuesday. Burton averaged 29 points in his last five regular season games. So getting past Notre Dame is no piece of cake even though the Tar Heels won six straight before losing to Duke last Saturday.
The 5-11 Burton plays bigger than that and has two backcourt running mates in Matt Allocco and Braeden Shrewsberry (the coach’s son) with good size. How Hubert Davis decides to play defense against that perimeter will be important, as will how the Tar Heels handle two post players taller than Ven-Allen Lubin and Jae’Lyn Withers.
If they play as well as they have in recent weeks, the Heels should live to play again Thursday. And, if that’s the case, we’ll talk more about Wake Forest and Deacons star Hunter Sallis tomorrow morning.
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Featured image via Todd Melet
Art Chansky is a veteran journalist who has written ten books, including best-sellers “Game Changers,” “Blue Bloods,” and “The Dean’s List.” He has contributed to WCHL for decades, having made his first appearance as a student in 1971. His “Sports Notebook” commentary airs daily on the 97.9 The Hill WCHL and his “Art’s Angle” opinion column runs weekly on Chapelboro.Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our newsletter.
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