The Russian military on Thursday night launched large-scale missile and drone bombardment on Ukraine‘s energy infrastructure, wounding 10 people, including a child, and disrupting critical heating and water supplies.
The attack came days after Trump paused military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, severely weakening Kyiv’s ability to detect and intercept oncoming missile attacks and locate Russian targets.
“Part of the reason the attack was so devastating is because Ukraine has not been able to use its air defence systems,” Dr Marion Messmer, Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Programme at Chatham House, said.
Firefighter team conduct extinguishing work after civilians injured in Russian missile attack on residential area in Kharkiv, Ukraine (Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Anadolu)
“US Government intelligence for Ukraine has been really important in terms of allowing Ukraine to understand Russian movements, to understand where Russian attacks might come from,” Messmer added. US satellite and detection systems have helped Ukraine “not just preempt and attack but also to be able to counter a target”.
“What do the Ukrainians fire at if they don’t know what’s out there?” he said. “They can’t see beyond the horizon unless they use their own drones for observation, but they haven’t got that many and have been reliant on the Americans to find out where the Russian targets are that they can launch their drones or missiles against.”
Russia ‘encouraged’ by success of bombardment
“Russian drones and missiles will get through Ukrainian ground-based air defence systems because they haven’t been pre-warned.”
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The US intelligence pause also means Ukrainian fighters no longer have access to high-quality radio intercepts to hear Russian communications on the battlefield.
“The Americans were previously using intelligence means to provide warning to the Ukrainians that stuff was on the way and then they could then take defensive manoeuvres.
Russia ‘weakening’ Ukraine’s negotiating position
“It’s not really building up to a ceasefire to essentially conduct these kind of attacks,” Messmer said, reflecting on the overnight missile attack.
“The US actions will have already had a pretty big impact on morale in Ukraine so if there’s also additional severe attacks then that might be an attempt to further undermine morale — but it might also simply be opportunistic.”
Trump in past weeks has appeared to draw America closer to Russia, organising talks with the Kremlin on ending the war and refusing to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine at the UN.
Moscow has been quick to express its delight, with the Kremlin’s spokesman suggesting US foreign policy is now largely aligned with the Russian government.
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