With Liverpool favourites for the Premier League, EFL Cup and Champions League, we asked the Opta supercomputer to work out how likely a treble is for Arne Slot’s side.
No-one at Anfield will admit it just yet, but there is a growing sense of inevitability that Liverpool will be lifting the 2024-25 Premier League title.
Following a week in which wins for the leaders over Manchester City and Newcastle United saw them pull 13 points clear of closest challengers Arsenal, who gained just one point from games against West Ham and Nottingham Forest, Liverpool sit clear at the summit, albeit having played a game more.
Arne Slot’s men have just 10 matches remaining, knowing it’ll take at most 88 points to confirm the title. They already sit on 67. That means seven wins will do it, or six if one of those victories is their home game against Arsenal in May.
They also have the EFL Cup final to look forward to in just over two weeks’ time against Newcastle, while they face Paris Saint-Germain next week in the UEFA Champions League last 16 as favourites to go all the way in that competition as well.
It’s fair to say – shock FA Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle aside – things are looking bright for Liverpool.
If they do manage to wrap the league title up early and reach the latter stages of the Champions League, Slot could be in an ideal position to rest his main players in the league so they’re fresh for their European adventure, which could be a big advantage over others. For example, in Spain, the title race looks like it could go down to the wire.
Can Liverpool go on and win all three trophies, though?
They are already the only English team to have previously won a league title, League Cup and European Cup treble, doing so in the 1983-84 season. Like Slot, this happened under a new man in charge, with Joe Fagan taking over from Bob Paisley to great success. Although unlike Slot, Fagan had previously been at the club for years prior to becoming manager as part of the famous Boot Room under Bill Shankly and Paisley.
We should also mention that while it would be ‘a treble’, most football fans – not least those in Manchester – will argue it would not be ‘the treble’, which is considered to be the league, European Cup/Champions League and FA Cup. Manchester United (1998-99) and Manchester City (2022-23) remain the only English teams to have achieved that honour.
What are the chances that this Liverpool side can repeat the feat of the Reds side of the 80s? Well luckily, as you may be aware, we have the Opta supercomputer to give us predictor numbers for winning things, so we nudged it with a stick and asked it how likely Liverpool are to have a particularly busy trophy parade in June.
Let’s also say that, given the relatively modest expectations of Liverpool for 2024-25 after legendary manager Jürgen Klopp left at the end of last season, replaced by an impressive but lesser-known figure in Slot, even winning only the Premier League title would be considered an excellent achievement. None of this is to belittle the accomplishment of winning any single trophy, albeit there is still a chance they could finish the season empty-handed, which would have to be considered a big disappointment considering their favourable position.
As mentioned, Liverpool are heavy favourites to win a 20th English top-flight title, and second Premier League crown. After their 2-0 victory over Newcastle and Arsenal’s 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest on Wednesday, the Opta supercomputer calculates that Liverpool win the title in a whopping 98.8% of its 10,000 simulations.
Their chances of winning the EFL Cup final against Newcastle are at 70%, while they secure a seventh European Cup/Champions League this season in 18% of sims.
Liverpool still have plenty of tough opposition to get past, though. Newcastle will be extra determined to end their lengthy trophy drought at Wembley on 16 March, while potentially tricky assignments still await them in the league against Everton, Fulham, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Brighton, among others.
In the Champions League, should they beat PSG in the last 16, they will face Club Brugge or Aston Villa in the quarter-finals, then Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Arsenal or PSV in the semis, and Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, Inter or Barcelona in the final, if they make it that far.
With all that in mind and their supercomputer percentages in hand, we can work out the likelihood of Liverpool lifting all three via some relatively simple maths.
There’s obviously plenty that could get in their way, but according to those supercomputer numbers, Liverpool finish the season with three shiny trophies in 12.4% of simulations.
Granted, that’s less than a one-in-eight chance, but it can’t be underestimated that Liverpool are favourites for all three trophies.
Should they reach the Champions League final, it means Slot’s men will have played another 18 games between now and the end of the season, and anything can happen.
Whatever occurs, the odds right now point to it being a summer of celebration on the red half of Merseyside.
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Can Liverpool Win a Treble? What the Opta Supercomputer Says Opta Analyst.
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