The 69-year-old corporate lawyer and investment banker is now set to become Germany’s next chancellor, replacing the lacklustre Olaf Scholz, whose social democrat SPD party saw a catastrophic collapse in support.
The election results already showed how unsettled the country is.
Alice Weidel, federal chairwoman and AfD candidate for chancellor, celebrates with Björn Höcke, who leads the AfD in Thuringia (Photo: Getty Images Europe)The AfD’s xenophobic rhetoric has echoed a growing anti-immigration mood across Germany – and Europe – but its extreme policies mean that all the other mainstream parties have ruled out partnering with it in a coalition. While the AfD’s vote marks a record for the far-right in Germany since the Nazi era, it is down from earlier this year, when it won controversial support from tech titan Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance.
Scholz’s partners in the so-called Traffic Light coalition also suffered: the Greens were down two points to 12.7 per cent, and the free-market FDP fell from 11.7 per cent in 2021 to 4.9 per cent, below the five per cent threshold needed to enter parliament. Indeed, the combined Traffic Light vote fell from 52 per cent to 33.5 per cent.
With the parliamentary arithmetic finely balanced, it is possible that the Greens are brought in too, for another three-party government – but Merz will hope to avoid that complication, having seen how the rancorous traffic light coalition fell apart in acrimony.
With the far right surging, Germany's elections will be pivotal for Europe
Read MoreThe German economic model is creaking. Industrial manufacturing, so long a driver of both domestic and European growth, is struggling, while exports are under pressure, particularly cars. US President Donald Trump is promising tariffs on European imports and has singled out German cars. Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) are even competing with German models, which have been too slow to switch to electric. And the country is still adjusting to the end of cheap gas from Russia, in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
Germany’s response will be crucial. Merz has committed to boosting defence, but he needs to change both German and European Union budget rules to ensure the massive spending rules. This will mean tightening spending elsewhere, and Merz will have to brace Germans for the tough years ahead.
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