Trump inflamed divisions with US allies in the world’s most powerful military alliance by falsely blaming Ukraine for its war with Russia, telling Volodymyr Zelensky “you should have never started it”.
But by sidelining Ukraine, Europe and Nato from US discussions with Russia about ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, and then echoing a false Russian narrative about the conflict, Trump has stepped “into uncharted territory”, experts believe – and Europe and Nato may pay the price.
Zelensky cancelled a visit to Saudi Arabia scheduled for Wednesday after it hosted the US-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war (Photo: Mert Gokhankoc/Getty)Perhaps the starkest rift with previous administrations’ policies were remarks on Friday by Vice President JD Vance, who indicated the differences between the US and Europe had shifted beyond debates over military burden-sharing, touching instead on deeper societal issues and questioning the alliance’s fundamental values.
Now questions are mounting over the stability of the Nato alliance, its effectiveness, and what comes next.
Deepening fissures
Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, said: “It’s dangerous. And it creates the cracks and fissures in the Nato alliance that would-be adversaries like to exploit.
Trump’s overly friendly attitude towards the Russian president has sparked fears in Europe of a potential “dirty deal” to end the war in Ukraine on Moscow’s terms, excluding Kyiv from the negotiation process.
US Vice President JD Vance accused Europe of abandoning the values of democracy by excluding the far right and restricting free speech (Photo: IAN LANGSDON/Getty)Kyiv has said it will not accept any deal imposed without its consent.
The Kremlin has denied Moscow was behind the attack.
Trump told European allies that after he makes a deal, they will have to take the lead on funding and supporting any security arrangements.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, “Nato has awoken itself and transformed itself….but we’ve still a long way to go,” Arnold said.
“And if you start to take that away, then Nato struggles to operate as a collective organization. The Europeans are quite fragmented in a lot of this. They’re quite focused in on the Russian threat, but it’s not the only threat that these countries face.”
Even if Trump is using his threats as a negotiating tactic, “it’s certainly not helpful,” Rizzo said.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will to hold discussions on ending the Ukraine war. (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/Getty)Moreover, Denmark’s security “has been fully anchored on US guarantees for decades,” he said. The US is also Denmark’s closest ally in the Arctic, which makes the situation quite difficult.
“What could Nato do? It will be very little in terms of concrete steps. The big thing will be the political fallout,” said Gad. “This would trigger an existential crisis for Nato.”
Exploitation by Russia, China and Iran
Nato operating without its key ally is a “silly thought,” Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters in Brussels earlier this month.
“So, for so many reasons, we have to stay connected,” he said. “And I know that the same thinking is still prevalent in the US, including in the White House.”
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Read More“I mean, broadly speaking, they’d be buoyed by that,” said Arnold. “And every time that these things happen, you know, the Russians will be on hand to just make these issues slightly bigger, slightly more difficult, in a way of trying to destabilise and really go after Nato politically, rather than militarily.”
Fuelling Moscow’s military machine
As the US role in the world’s most powerful military alliance grows increasingly uncertain, Trump is now proposing to reinstate Russia into another – the group of the world’s leading economies, the G7.
Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 following its initial invasion of Ukrainian territory. Sanctions imposed by the EU and the US after the 2022 invasion have strained Russia’s economy, although Moscow has managed to sustain its military efforts.
“Enabling Russia back into the sort of financial fold without any real concessions on their side is very worrying. Because it would mean that the Russians are able to sort of help their economy get out of its current trajectory.
“So it’s actually quite dangerous to try and normalize financial relations with Russia. Because it just basically means that they’ll have more money to buy more military equipment,” further increasing the threat to Europe.
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