EUR/USD is back at its Wednesday high, gold is higher than itsChina has proposed holding a Trump / Putin summitTaiwan's Foxconn says it is open to buying a stake in NissanNew Zealand inflation expectations remained subdued in Q1 2025The Wall Street Journal says Trump’s call for rate cuts defies inflation realityTrump will be signing more executive orders on Thursday, February 13 - reciprocal tariffs?Barclays says a Fed rate cut still expected in 2025, but the risks of no cut is risingAbout 75,000 workers have accepted Trump’s buyout programReserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations: 1yr 2.15% (prior 2.05) 2yr 2.06 (2.12)Hong Kong's 'central bank' says the PBOC will issue yuan sovereign bonds in HKFed likely to stay on hold despite strong CPI, rate cuts expected in Q3PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1719 (vs. estimate at 7.3000)More sticky high inflation data, this time from Japan. Bank of Japan March meeting is liveBank of America: Strong CPI underscores Fed's caution, rate hikes back in discussionUK Housing Market Cools Despite Upbeat Surveyors; Positive Outlook AheadAustralian Inflation Expectations survey for February 2025 4.6% (prior was 4.0%)Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y (expected +4.0% prior +3.8%)Goldman Sachs revises core PCE inflation forecast higher after CPI reportTrump's reciprocal tariffs - more on timingMorgan Stanley hasn't changed its Federal Reserve forecast despite strong US CPI reportThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Survey of Expectations due today can be a NZD moverFed's Waller doesn't comment on his outlook for the economy nor monetary policyNew Zealand data: January Card retail sales -1.6% m/m (prior +2.4) & -0.5% y/y (prior -1)Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 13 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasTrump said he may sign reciprocal tariffs today, or tomorrow
The indications are that Trump is likely to announce reciprocal tariffs on Thursday. The White House schedule has him signing executive orders at 1 pm local time, so perhaps that is the timing? Earlier on it was indicated he may be doing so after his meeting with India's prime Minister Modi:
the two meet at 4.05 pm US Eastern time
the two hold a news conference at 5.10 pm
We’ll see.
If the threat of tariffs is meant to weigh on the EU that was not reflected in the euro today. EUR/USD rose to circa 1.0430, back to its post-US CPI high.
If the threat of tariffs is encouraging ‘safe haven’ flows, well maybe the gold price movement backed this – it rallied to above USD2915.
Conflicting narratives if you are into narratives!
The dollar was offered more broadly. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, CHF all rose.
From Japan we had a further indication of inflation pressures with the January PPI coming in at 4.2%, above expectations (4.0%) and above December (3.9%). The yen didn’t post gains really. USD/JPY is not a lot changed on the session around 154.45 as I update.
NZ data showed subdued inflation expectations.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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