What's interesting about that is that seasonal adjustment is always a backwards-looking exercise and with those three years now in the data set, the pendulum could swing in the other direction.
Before adjusting for seasonal patterns, around half of all price increases take effect during the first quarter of the year, said Detmeister. “Because that’s where most of the price changes are occurring, that’s where your biggest forecast misses—the biggest surprises—are going to be,” he said.
CPI seasonal factors will be revised with the January release. Based on historical data, we think these revisions will be modest.
The report is due at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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