On Thursday morning, Elliotte Friedman dropped a loaded written version of his “32 Thoughts” and there are some good Blackhawks-centric nuggets in there. Here’s what got my attention:
Blackhawks trade buzz
I noted in my bullets this morning that there were 14 teams represented in the press box scouting the Blackhawks-Oilers game. Friedman notes a light schedule and the looming two-week break meant there was plenty of attention in Chicago and LA. The Blackhawks had a scout at the Kings-Canadiens game.
“A three-game Wednesday means massive scout concentration, with plenty of attention at Edmonton/Chicago and Montreal/Los Angeles. There was interest in Connor Murphy a year ago, but injuries ruined his season. He’s healthy now, so plenty of eyes on him — along with Ryan Donato and Seth Jones.”
Another couple notes on the Rantanen/Hall trade:
“The Rantanen deal could have been a four-way. The Hurricanes called around to see if anyone else would get involved. I assume that was to eat some of Taylor Hall’s salary.”“The NBA’s Utah Jazz were the middleman in the massive Doncic deal. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported that Jazz president Danny Ainge didn’t know Doncic nor Anthony Davis were involved “until about an hour before it was completed … But by then it was too late to do much about it.”
Kind of funny it happened a week after the Blackhawks were criticized for not getting more out of eating part of Rantanen’s salary. I asked around about this: should the Blackhawks have changed their minds, or asked for more? “How do you feel about breaking your word?” was the general response.
One thing everyone understood: GM Kyle Davidson wasn’t told specifics because Colorado demanded secrecy from Carolina. A couple executives said that, in this situation, you know what you’re being asked to retain, so you’re guessing who it could be. And, they bet Davidson was given a higher number than actually needed, to make it harder to guess who it was. Apparently, that’s a regular tactic.”
So… maybe, just maybe, Blackhawks fans still losing their minds over how the Rantanen/Hall trade do indeed need to hit the pause button. Maybe.
Future contract negotiations
First, Friedman dropped this fascinating anecdote from almost 20 years ago for the Blackhawks:
When Marc Bergevin became Montreal’s GM, he explained one of his core philosophies: know when you are ready to hit home runs.
He worked for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2006, when they had the opportunity to trade for Chris Pronger. They declined, the right decision because the draft pick that turned into Patrick Kane would have gone to Edmonton.
“Hit singles,” he said, “until you are good enough to hit home runs.”
Several years into his tenure, Bergevin modified his outlook.
“Those kinds of players aren’t available often. If they are, you have to look at it.”
I think those two quotes — which I put in bold for a reason — are what Blackhawks fans need to keep in mind right now. In trades and free agency, Davidson has been more focused on collecting draft capital to accelerate the rebuild and, when bringing in veteran players, hitting singles (and doubles occasionally). But we’re nearing the point that swinging for the fences starts to become more of a reality.
The second quote is precisely why the Blackhawks should — and reportedly will — be significant players this summer if the right players hit the free agent market. “Those kinds of players” is what we’re talking about when guys like Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner are available. The Blackhawks have to look at them. And I expect they will.
Friedman also writes about another factor in future negotiations: percentage of the cap ceiling being a component in contract negotiations.
Players/agents have made it their strategy, and it’s a smart one. When he signed, McDavid’s percentage was 15.72, which remains highest overall. (Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Matthews are the others above 15.) This tactic has spread from superstars to everyone up and down the roster.
One exec said last week that negotiations with a solid, appreciated player on his team — but not one of their top guys — halted because this tactic took things where the organization wouldn’t go. Like most contract conversations, it comes down to leverage, but teams will try to limit percentage arguments to top players. We’ll see.
Friedman notes that a seven-year deal at a $14M cap hit for Rantanen would be $98M gross. Assuming a $95.5M cap ceiling, a $14M AAV would start at 14.7 percent of the ceiling and go down from there (again: the cap is going up quickly in the coming years). Let’s also keep in mind — and Friedman mentions this — that Connor McDavid (and Cale Makar) will need new deals in the coming years so the marker for highest AAV is only going to continue going up and up and up…
If we use McDavid’s percentage of the ceiling when he signed as a benchmark, that’s roughly a $15M AAV at the $95.5M ceiling for next year. In the years that follow? The AAV only goes higher. So, with that in mind, is it crazy to think a team like the Blackhawks might offer a player like Rantanen or Marner a cap hit in the $15-16M range? I don’t think it is at all. And, while the number would be unprecedented at the time of signing the deal, it would likely be eclipsed in the coming years and wouldn’t feel as massive as the cap continues to go north.
Written 32: t.co/Np8lMkWby2
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) February 6, 2025 Read More Details
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