The NBA world reacts to the shocking deal sending Luka Dončić to Los Angeles and Anthony Davis to Dallas.
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Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić.
When NBA decision-makers filled out the annual GM Survey four months ago, those four players received votes for the question of who GMs would want to start a franchise with.
The Dallas Mavericks had one of those four guys, the 25-year-old who received the most votes on that question in 2021, the guy who led them to the NBA Finals just eight months ago.
And then they traded him late Saturday, not to the highest bidder, but to the only team they talked to … without getting all of the Los Angeles Lakers’ top assets.
Stunning.
Plus-Minus Players of the Week
Teams of the Week
Make It Last Forever: Portland (3-0) — Are the Blazers good? Something Just Ain’t Right: Orlando (0-3) — The Magic’s guys are back, but their offense is not.* * *
East vs. West
The West is 145-110 (.569) against the East in interconference games after going 16-14 last week.Schedule strength through Week 15
Toughest: 1. Washington, 2. Toronto, 3. Golden State Easiest: 1. New York, 2. Cleveland, 3. Memphis Schedule strength is based on cumulative opponent record.* * *
Movement in the Rankings
High jumps of the week: Portland (+4), Golden State (+3) Free falls of the week: Orlando (-6), Atlanta (-4), Sacramento (-3)* * *
Week 16 Team to Watch
San Antonio — The Spurs have lost nine of their last 12 games, but got a talent upgrade with the addition of De’Aaron Fox, who should join them with some opportunities to get back in the Play-In mix in the West. The annual rodeo trip begins with games in Memphis, Atlanta, Charlotte and Orlando.* * *
Previously…
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league has averaged 112.9 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes this season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, contact him via Bluesky.
#1
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last Week:1
Record: 38-9
OffRtg: 116.5 (6) DefRtg: 104.2 (1) NetRtg: +12.3 (1) Pace: 100.5 (8)
The Thunder blew a 14-point lead at Golden State on Wednesday, getting clobbered in the second half. But they returned to do the clobbering against the Kings over the weekend.
Three takeaways
The loss on Wednesday was just the Thunder’s third (they’re 37-3) in a game they led by double-digits, their first (after 25 straight wins) since Nov. 19. They still rank as the best defensive team (8.7 fewer points allowed per 100 possessions than the league average) in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, but they allowed the Warriors to score 68 points on 49 possessions (1.39 per) after halftime. With a 36-31 opening period against the Kings on Saturday, the Thunder haven’t lost the first quarter in their last 12 games. For the season, they’re a plus-19.0 per 100 possessions in the first quarter, easily the best mark for any team in any period. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 13 points in the first quarter on Saturday, but Aaron Wiggins (starting in place of Jalen Williams) finished with a career-high 41. Wiggins (true shooting percentage of 58.7%) has seen a big drop in efficiency from last season (66.4%), but has been a big part of what would be the best bench (aggregate NetRtg of plus-6.7) in the 29 seasons of play-by-play data.The last time the Thunder saw the Bucks, they got crushed in the Emirates NBA Cup final in Las Vegas. They scored just 81 points on 97 possessions, their worst offensive performance of the season by a huge margin. The first of two meetings that count toward the regular season standings is in Oklahoma City on Monday when the Thunder will have a rest advantage. They’ll be at a disadvantage in Memphis over the weekend, Game 2 of their second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days.
Week 16: vs. MIL, vs. PHX, vs. TOR, @ MEM
#2
Houston Rockets
Last Week:2
Record: 32-16
OffRtg: 114.2 (11) DefRtg: 108.8 (4) NetRtg: +5.5 (6) Pace: 99.0 (19)
The Rockets began Week 15 with a big win in Boston, and they ended it with a pair of losses, including one to the Nets.
Three takeaways
The loss to Brooklyn (as well as their loss in Memphis two nights earlier) came without Alperen Sengun (calf contusion). The Rockets had some success (12-6) without Sengun at the end of last season, but have dropped their first two games without him this year. Though the offense wasn’t very good on Saturday, the bigger issues over the two losses were on the other end of the floor, with the Grizzlies and Nets combining for 132 points in the paint. For the season, 51% of their opponents’ shots have come in the paint, with that being the league’s highest opponent rate. But they rank third in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (54.2%), having seen the league’s fifth-biggest drop from last season. Before their loss to Brooklyn, the Rockets’ last five games were all within five points in the last five minutes. They now rank fourth in total clutch games, with their win in Atlanta on Tuesday giving them as many clutch wins (they’re 17-10) as they had all of last season (17-23). Only the Pistons and Cavs have seen bigger jumps in clutch winning percentage.After losing to the Nets in a single home game, the Rockets are back out on the road for a second-straight four-game trip, also the first four games of their second (and final) stretch of five in seven days. Sengun is listed as questionable for their visit to Madison Square Garden on Monday.
Week 16: @ NYK, @ BKN, @ MIN, @ DAL, vs. TOR
#3
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Week:3
Record: 40-9
OffRtg: 121.9 (1) DefRtg: 111.4 (8) NetRtg: +10.5 (2) Pace: 100.5 (7)
The Cavs have followed their three-game losing streak with four straight wins, building their lead over the Celtics back up to six games in the loss column.
Three takeaways
The offense wasn’t the issue over the losing streak, and the Cavs have scored more than 130 points per 100 possessions in each of their last three games, giving them 12 games of more than 130 per 100 for the season. The Nuggets are next with nine and there are three teams — the Bucks, Magic and Wizards — who haven’t scored more than 130 per 100 in a game at all. The Cavs scored 2.3 more points per 100 possessions than any other team while ranking in the bottom 10 in both free throw rate (23rd) and offensive rebounding percentage (22nd). Shooting remains the most important thing in this league and they’re the most effective shooting team in NBA history (59.0%) by a healthy margin, topping the Pacers’ mark of 57.8% last season. Ten of the 11 Cavs who’ve attempted at least 100 shots have an effective field goal percentage above the league average (54.1%). The one exception is Sam Merrill, who tied his career high with 27 points (shooting 9-for-13 from 3-point range) as the Cavs clobbered the short-handed Mavs on Sunday. That game also marked the return of Caris LeVert from a seven-game absence, though the Cavs are still without Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade. Bench minutes have remained strong with Ty Jerome and Georges Niang both having big games last week.The top two teams in the East split their first two meetings, with the Cavs coming back from a 12-point, fourth-quarter deficit in the game in Cleveland. The third meeting of four is back at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Tuesday.
Week 16: vs. BOS, @ DET, @ WAS
#4
Boston Celtics
Last Week:4
Record: 35-15
OffRtg: 118.6 (3) DefRtg: 109.7 (5) NetRtg: +8.9 (3) Pace: 97.9 (25)
The Celtics didn’t necessarily need to turn their season around, but maybe they rediscovered their mojo by turning one game around.
Three takeaways
The Celtics were seemingly cruising through another sub-standard performance on Sunday, falling into a 26-point hole late in the third quarter in Philadelphia. They had lost their previous nine games that they trailed by double-digits in the second half. But they then outscored the Sixers by 34 points (54-20) over the final 14:45, with that being tied for the largest comeback (to win) for any team this season. Coach Joe Mazzulla loves it when his team has to overcome obstacles, so this was probably his favorite game of the season. The Celtics shot an unsustainable 12-for-16 from 3-point range over that 14:45, but their offensive possessions were more purposeful (like they were in last year’s playoffs) and they also locked down Tyrese Maxey (0-for-5 shooting) as they made the comeback. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum played the entire second half on Sunday, while Al Horford didn’t see the floor over the final 24 minutes. Kristaps Porziņģis was also on the bench for much of the comeback, with Luke Kornet at the five. The Celtics’ preferred starting lineup is still struggling and has been outscored by 1.4 points per 100 possessions in its 262 minutes this season.If the last 15 minutes in Philly on Sunday were a turning point in the season, it was great timing, because the Celtics will visit the first-place Cavs and third-place Knicks this week. They lead New York by two games in the loss column with three meetings remaining.
Week 16: @ CLE, vs. DAL, @ NYK
#5
Memphis Grizzlies
Last Week:5
Record: 33-16
OffRtg: 117.8 (5) DefRtg: 110.8 (7) NetRtg: +7.0 (4) Pace: 104.6 (1)
The Grizzlies’ six-game winning streak came to an end with a 37-point loss in New York last Monday, but they responded with quality wins over the Rockets and Bucks, climbing into second place in the West.
Three takeaways
The Grizzlies came back from five points down with less than two minutes left against Houston on Thursday and then pulled away in the final few minutes in Milwaukee. They’ve now won their last four games that were within five points in the last five minutes, having held their opponents to just 11 points on 28 clutch possessions. They still have a losing record (10-11) in clutch games for the season, but now rank third in clutch defense. The overall defense hasn’t been great of late, with two of the Grizzlies’ three worst performances on that end of the floor coming in the last 10 days. Rebounding has been an issue, with the Knicks, Rockets and Bucks totaling 77 second-chance points over their three games last week. This would be the third straight season that the Grizzlies rank in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding percentage.The Grizzlies have the West’s toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with only three of their 11 February games against teams currently below .500. Two of those three are this week, and they’ll host the Spurs on Monday, having scored 131.2 points per 100 possessions (the best mark for any team against San Antonio) as they’ve won the first two meetings.
Week 16: vs. SAS, @ TOR, vs. OKC
#6
New York Knicks
Last Week:6
Record: 32-17
OffRtg: 119.6 (2) DefRtg: 113.0 (15) NetRtg: +6.6 (5) Pace: 98.0 (24)
The Knicks are 2-1 on their stretch of four straight home games against top-five teams in the West, beating the Grizzlies and Nuggets comfortably, but losing to the Lakers on Saturday.
Three takeaways
As has been the case most of the season, the Knicks have won with elite offense. They scored more than 124 points per 100 possessions over the five-game winning streak that preceded the weekend loss to L.A., with their wins over the Kings and Grizzlies being the worst defensive games for those teams all season. Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart combined for 77 assists and just 16 turnovers over the five games and the Knicks have seen the league’s biggest jump in assist/turnover ratio from last season (1.84, 23rd) to this season (2.13, fifth). As has been the case most of the season, the Knicks have lost with sub-par defense. The Lakers scored 128 points on 99 possessions on Saturday (even though they had just three offensive rebounds), and New York has allowed more than 123 per 100 in each of its last four losses. OG Anunoby suffered a foot sprain in the loss to the Lakers. He’s listed as questionable for Monday, when the Knicks’ stretch of 12 of 14 at home comes to an end with a visit from the Rockets, so it doesn’t seem like a long-term injury. But it’s another sign that, with the trade deadline three days away, this team could probably use (at least) one more player that coach Tom Thibodeau can trust.Though they’ll head to Canada after the game against the Rockets, the Knicks will be back at Madison Square Garden for a marquee matchup with the Celtics over the weekend. They haven’t seen the champs since opening night when Boston was 29-for-48 from 3-point range with a little less than nine minutes left (before missing their final 13 attempts from deep).
Week 16: vs. HOU, @ TOR, vs. BOS
#7
Denver Nuggets
Last Week:7
Record: 30-19
OffRtg: 118.1 (4) DefRtg: 114.0 (20) NetRtg: +4.1 (7) Pace: 101.2 (5)
After losing the first three games, the Nuggets salvaged their five-game trip with wins in Philadelphia and Charlotte.
Three takeaways
The Nuggets shot just 7-for-37 (19%) from 3-point range in Charlotte on Saturday but were a plus-14 in the restricted area and a plus-5 at the line. Teams were previously 1-36 when shooting less than 20% from deep, with the only other win (the Lakers vs. Minnesota) having come on opening night. Denver leads the league by a wide margin in point differential in the restricted area (plus-7.5 per game) and ranks second in free throw differential (plus-3.0 per game). The Nuggets are one of three teams – the Thunder and Rockets are the others – with a winning record (18-15) when getting outscored from beyond the arc. They lost Russell Westbrook to a hamstring issue in the Philly game, the Nuggets played only eight guys (with no DeAndre Jordan) in each of the weekend wins, and bench minutes were not good either night. They’re back home now, but those last two games of the trip were the first two games of their second stretch of five games in seven days.The good news is that the rest of that five-in-seven stretch will come against the struggling Pelicans (x 2) and Magic. The Nuggets will be home for seven of their next eight games, a stretch that takes them past the All-Star break.
Week 16: vs. NOP, vs. NOP, vs. ORL, @ PHX
#8
Indiana Pacers
Last Week:8
Record: 27-20
OffRtg: 114.8 (8) DefRtg: 114.0 (19) NetRtg: +0.8 (13) Pace: 100.7 (6)
The Pacers’ offense didn’t suffer any jet lag upon its return from Paris, and they continue to have the league’s best record (11-2) in 2025.
Three takeaways
The Pacers have ranked in the top five on both ends of the floor since Jan. 1. But it was their offense that took over as they beat the Pistons and Hawks last week. Though they had two different starting lineups, they got off to great starts both nights, scoring 80 total points on 53 first-quarter possessions (1.51 per), with the three players who started both games — Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner — combining to shoot 10-for-14 on first-quarter 3-pointers. Siakam, named an All-Star reserve last week, is now averaging 20.5 points on a true shooting percentage of 61.6%, his highest mark in the last six seasons (since the year he won a title with Toronto). His 3-point percentage (41.5%) is the highest mark of his career by a wide margin, and so is his field goal percentage in the paint (64.8%), making his paint shots a little more valuable than his 3-pointers. The percentage of his shots that have come in the paint is the lowest of his career, but still more than half (52%). After Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin missed the Pacers’ win over Detroit, they were both back against Atlanta on Saturday, though Aaron Nesmith was on the floor (and hit a huge 3) down the stretch after they blew an 18-point lead. The regular starting lineup has allowed just 100.6 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among the 19 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes.Among teams that are not in the bottom 10 in the league, the Pacers have the worst record (10-7) against the bottom 10 (teams at least five games below .500). They’ll begin a four-game trip with a back-to-back (their first of 2025) in Utah and Portland.
Week 16: @ UTA, @ POR, @ LAC, @ LAL
#9
LA Clippers
Last Week:9
Record: 28-21
OffRtg: 111.2 (20) DefRtg: 107.8 (2) NetRtg: +3.4 (8) Pace: 98.9 (20)
The Clippers went 2-2 on a four-game trip and are holding on to sixth place in the West.
Three takeaways
Kawhi Leonard still hasn’t logged 30 minutes in a game yet, but he’s played in six straight and played his first fourth-quarter minutes of the season last week. He was even on the floor for a little bit of clutch time as the Clippers won close games in San Antonio and Charlotte, holding the Spurs and Hornets scoreless on four total clutch possessions. The Clippers have climbed out of the bottom 10 on offense, scoring 0.04 more points per 100 possessions than the 21st-ranked Sixers. Their win over the Spurs was the sixth time they’ve scored more than 125 points per 100 possessions, with offensive rebounding being a big part of three of those efficient performances. They were a plus-15 on second chances in the San Antonio game, the second time in January that Ivica Zubac had at least 20 points and 20 rebounds. With Leonard playing more, the Clippers’ starting lineup has eclipsed the 100-minute plateau, and it’s outscored opponents by 38.5 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among the 62 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes. But the Clips were without Norman Powell (hip soreness) in Toronto on Sunday, when they allowed the Raptors to score 19 points on their first 12 possessions and shoot 13-for-25 from 3-point range.The Clippers will close their pre-break schedule with a four-game homestand that includes a huge game against the Lakers on Tuesday and rest-advantage games against the Jazz and Grizzlies.
Week 16: vs. LAL, vs. IND, vs. UTA
#10
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last Week:10
Record: 27-22
OffRtg: 113.1 (14) DefRtg: 110.0 (6) NetRtg: +3.1 (9) Pace: 97.7 (26)
The Wolves had their first five-game winning streak of the season but were without Anthony Edwards (illness) and Julius Randle (groin injury) on Saturday and lost to a team (Washington) that had dropped 16 straight.
Three takeaways
The winning streak was the Wolves’ best five-game stretch of offense this season, with their 138 points on 94 possessions in Utah on Thursday being the second most efficient game for any team this season. Edwards averaged 31.5 points (on 53% shooting) and 7.3 assists over the five games, which included a critical victory in Phoenix on Wednesday. The loss to Washington was the first game that Edwards missed this season and (statistically) the Wizards’ second-best defensive game of the season (103 points on 100 possessions). Overall, the Wolves have scored 8.7 more points per 100 possessions with Edwards on the floor (114.3) than they have with him off the floor (105.6), with that being his biggest on-off differential on offense in his five years in the league. Over those five years (and including Play-In and playoff games), Edwards has played in 380 (96%) of a possible 397 games. The only players who’ve played more total minutes than him this season are three of the Knicks’ starters.The Wolves’ loss to the Wizards on Saturday was the start of a five-game homestand that ends with their fourth meeting against the Blazers, to whom they lost twice in November. They’ll have a rest advantage against the Bulls on Wednesday, currently 7-2 in rest-advantage games.
Week 16: vs. SAC, vs. CHI, vs. HOU, vs. POR
#11
Los Angeles Lakers
Last Week:12↑
Record: 28-19
OffRtg: 113.9 (13) DefRtg: 114.1 (21) NetRtg: -0.2 (15) Pace: 98.2 (23)
The Lakers remain blessed. For some reason, they were the only team the Mavs contacted about trading Luka Dončić, who gives them another elite franchise cornerstone for the next several years.
Three takeaways
Dončić and LeBron James are seemingly in the same mold, but with the latter now 40 years old, Dončić gives the Lakers a lot more (consistent) juice off the dribble. They currently rank 27th with 37.9 drives per game, but Dončić ranked third among individuals with 17.8 per game last season. Those drives create open and in-rhythm 3-pointers, which should help a team that has ranked 18th in 3-point percentage (36.0%) over the last three seasons. Only Tyrese Haliburton has assisted on more 3s per game over that timeframe than Dončić (3.7), with the Mavs shooting 38.9% from deep off his passes (according to Second Spectrum tracking) and 36.5% otherwise since the start of the 2022-23 season. The Lakers need a center in the short term, though even with Davis, they haven’t had a great paint defense this season. They rank 17th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (56.9%) and 27th in the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come in the paint (50%), and those numbers weren’t much different (57%, 49%) when Davis was on the floor.It’s unclear when Dončić will play for the Lakers, who will play a huge game at the Intuit Dome on Tuesday. They lost there 15 days ago, getting clobbered on the glass and trailing by as many as 26 points.
Week 16: @ LAC, vs. GSW, vs. IND
#12
Milwaukee Bucks
Last Week:11↓
Record: 26-21
OffRtg: 114.2 (10) DefRtg: 112.2 (11) NetRtg: +2.0 (10) Pace: 100.1 (12)
The Bucks slid out of the top four in the East after losing three straight games for the first time since early November.
Three takeaways
They’ve allowed an amazing 131.9 points per 100 possessions over the losing streak, with the three losses marking three of the Bucks’ four worst defensive games of 2024-25. Rebounding was a consistent issue, but the Spurs also made 24 3-pointers while committing just six turnovers as they scored 144 points on 104 possessions on Friday. With rebounding issues and an inability to force turnovers, the Bucks have had 52 fewer shooting opportunities than their opponents over their last five games. They now rank 26th in shooting-opportunity differential, with a discrepancy of 3.2 per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 or more points in the paint in both games of the Bucks’ Utah-Portland back-to-back last week, giving him six for the season. That’s tied for the third most games with 30-plus points in the paint for any player in the 29 seasons for which we have shot-location data, trailing only Shaquille O’Neal’s 11 in 1999-00 and Antetokounmpo’s nine last season.Their loss to the Grizzlies on Sunday was the Bucks’ lone home game in a stretch where they’re playing seven of eight on the road, and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in Oklahoma City on Monday. With their loss in Portland last week, they’re 0-3 when playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road.
Week 16: @ OKC, @ CHA, @ ATL, vs. PHI
#13
Dallas Mavericks
Last Week:13
Record: 26-24
OffRtg: 114.8 (9) DefRtg: 112.9 (13) NetRtg: +1.8 (11) Pace: 100.2 (10)
The Mavs have some young talent (including newly acquired Max Christie) in their rotation. But in the next seven weeks, Klay Thompson will turn 35, Anthony Davis will be 32 and Kyrie Irving will turn 33. The time to win is now.
Three takeaways
The Mavs can be terrific defensively with Davis playing alongside either of the Mavs’ two young centers. Daniel Gafford (46%) and Dereck Lively II (54.4%) rank first and ninth, respectively, in rim protection among 58 players who’ve defended at least 150 shots at the basket. If the Mavs keep them both beyond the deadline, Davis will eventually (when Lively is healthy) get his wish and likely be a full-time power forward. But there will be spacing issues on offense, with Gafford and Lively a combined 0-for-3 in their careers from 3-point range and Davis shooting just 26% on 3-pointers over the last five seasons. The Lakers’ comp for the Mavs’ two centers is Jaxson Hayes and L.A. scored just 104.2 points per 100 possessions in 159 total minutes with Davis and Hayes on the floor together over the last two years. The Mavs might also seek some off-the-dribble creation between now and Thursday’s trade deadline. They’ve ranked sixth in drives per game (P.J. Washington has been attacking more) since the last time Luka Dončić played, but have scored just 105.6 points per 100 possessions with Irving off the floor over that stretch.Davis suffered an abdominal strain on Tuesday, so it’s possible that he won’t make his Mavs debut until after the All-Star break. Dallas’ toughest games between now and then are meetings with the Celtics and Rockets this week.
Week 16: @ PHI, @ BOS, vs. HOU
#14
Phoenix Suns
Last Week:15↑
Record: 25-23
OffRtg: 114.0 (12) DefRtg: 114.8 (22) NetRtg: -0.8 (17) Pace: 98.7 (21)
The Suns have improved over the last month and got a good win over the Clippers last Monday. But they haven’t been able to push themselves into the top six in the West, losing a big game against the Wolves on Wednesday, and then coming up empty in Portland over the weekend.
Three takeaways
The Suns shot 22-for-47 (47%) from 3-point range on Monday, outscoring the Clippers by 36 points from beyond the arc. It was the seventh time (first since Dec. 13) that they took more than half of their shots from 3-point range, but it wasn’t the start of a trend. The Suns rank 11th in 3-point rate (43.3%) for the season, but are 22nd (40.0%) over the last seven weeks, down from sixth (46.4%) prior. Over their last five games, the Suns have been outscored by 67 points (114-47) on fast breaks. According to Synergy tracking, they rank 28th in the percentage of their possessions (16.3%) that have been in transition, though that rate is a small jump from last season (15.9%, 26th). Tyus Jones ranks third in the league with 8.0 hit-ahead passes per game, according to Second Spectrum. With their loss in Portland on Saturday, the Suns are just 2-7 (.222) in the second game of back-to-backs and 23-16 (.590) with rest. That’s the league’s biggest such differential, and they have two more back-to-backs before the All-Star break.The Suns will get another shot at the Blazers on Monday and finish their four-game trip in Oklahoma City two nights later. They were without Beal and Durant when they had their worst offensive game of the season (83 points on 96 possessions) there in November.
Week 16: @ POR, @ OKC, vs. UTA, vs. DEN
#15
Miami Heat
Last Week:16↑
Record: 24-23
OffRtg: 111.8 (18) DefRtg: 111.8 (9) NetRtg: +0.0 (14) Pace: 97.5 (27)
The Heat have suspended Jimmy Butler for a third time and there are three days left until the trade deadline, with Miami in a tight race for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the East.
Three takeaways
Before last Monday, Bam Adebayo had gone 11 games without scoring 20 points. But he had 26, 21 and 30 as the Heat went 2-1 last week, capping that run with the game-winning buzzer-beater in San Antonio on Saturday night. The 3-point-shooting experiment hasn’t worked particularly well for the eighth-year big, but Adebayo has shot a career-best 44.3% from mid-range (up from 34.4% last season), including 9-for-16 over those three games last week. When you take the drop in league-average efficiency into account, the Heat are a slightly better offensive team (1.1 points per 100 possessions below average) than they were in 2023-24 (1.3 per 100 below). But they’re still a below-average offensive team for what would be the eighth time in the last 10 seasons. They need to be very good defensively to win: they’re 18-1 when they’ve allowed 107 points per 100 possessions or fewer and 6-22 (with eight straight losses) when they haven’t. The Heat’s three wins over the last nine days have come against Brooklyn, Orlando and San Antonio (without Victor Wembanyama). All three games were decided by single digits. With their 20-point loss to Cleveland on Wednesday, they’re 0-6 since Jan. 1 against teams that are currently over .500.Their win in San Antonio began a stretch where the Heat are playing nine of 10 on the road, but they won’t be playing any of those over-.500 teams this week. The next stop on their current, four-game trip is their first of three meetings with the Bulls.
Week 16: @ CHI, @ PHI, @ BKN
#16
Golden State Warriors
Last Week:19↑
Record: 24-24
OffRtg: 111.7 (19) DefRtg: 112.0 (10) NetRtg: -0.3 (16) Pace: 99.5 (17)
The Warriors have been within one game of .500 after each of their last 14 games and still haven’t won more than two straight since mid-November.
Three takeaways
The Warriors got a quality, rest-disadvantage win last week, holding the Thunder to just 109 points on 101 possessions. Oklahoma City is in the top five in both transition points scored and allowed, but transition points were 28-10 in favor of Golden State on Wednesday, according to Synergy tracking. The Warriors have seen the league’s biggest drop in transition points allowed from last season. Despite the advantage in transition points, the Warriors were still outscored in the paint on Wednesday, and have been outscored in the paint in nine of the 11 games over Draymond Green’s absence. The last two opponents have done their best to take Stephen Curry out of the Warriors’ offense. The win over the Thunder and a loss to the Suns on Friday were the 12th and 13th time this season that Curry has registered a usage rate below 25%, with Golden State now 5-8 in those games. The 13 are already three more (relatively) low-usage games that Curry had last season, and his overall usage rate (27.0%) is his lowest in the last 12 years.The Warriors are trying to get something done at the deadline because it was reported over the weekend that Jimmy Butler isn’t interested in them long-term. Their six-game homestand wraps up with a visit from the Magic on Monday, and they’ll then play 12 of their next 14 games on the road.
Week 16: vs. ORL, @ UTA, @ LAL, @ CHI
#17
Sacramento Kings
Last Week:14↓
Record: 24-24
OffRtg: 115.2 (7) DefRtg: 113.7 (17) NetRtg: +1.5 (12) Pace: 100.1 (11)
So much for the Kings’ post-coaching-change resurgence. Sacramento has lost four of its last five games (its worst five-game stretch of defense this season) and traded De’Aaron Fox on Sunday.
Three takeaways
Fox’s numbers weren’t much different than they were the last two seasons, but the Kings just weren’t been as good with him running the offense. They were outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions (scoring just 108.9 per 100) in his 537 minutes on the floor without Domantas Sabonis. Fox’s time of possession (as a percentage of his total time on the floor) had dropped pretty significantly over the last two years, from 20% in 2022-23 to 15% this season. But he still led the team in possession and the Kings’ rotation is now without a real point guard. So we can expect Sabonis (third in elbow touches per game) to be even more of a hub than he has been. Zach LaVine arrives having the best season of his career and bringing a big upgrade from beyond the arc, with the Kings being one of four teams that rank in the bottom 10 in both 3-point percentage (34.5%, 24th) and 3-point rate (39.6%, 22nd). Among 43 players who’ve averaged at least 20 points per game, Sabonis (20.8, 67.6%) and LaVine (24.0, 63.7%), rank first and sixth in true shooting percentage.The Kings were 0-6 against the Pelicans last season but escaped New Orleans with a two-point win in December. The last three ’24-25 meetings are all set to be played in the next 11 days, with the first (Saturday) being one of just two home games in this stretch where the Kings are playing 10 of their final 12 pre-break games on the road.
Week 16: @ MIN, vs. ORL, @ POR, vs. NOP
#18
Detroit Pistons
Last Week:18
Record: 25-24
OffRtg: 112.0 (16) DefRtg: 112.9 (12) NetRtg: -0.9 (18) Pace: 99.5 (16)
The Pistons lost the last three games of a five-game trip but returned home to beat two teams — Dallas and Chicago — that made big trades over the weekend.
Three takeaways
With losses in Cleveland and Indiana last week, the Pistons are 3-11 against the top five teams in the East, allowing 119 points per 100 possessions over those 14 games. On Wednesday, the Pacers shot 19-for-38 from 3-point range and had 31 free throw attempts as Detroit allowed more than 130 points per 100 for the second time this season. The Pistons themselves have made no more than 12 3s in their last nine games. Their starting lineup, with Ausar Thompson in Jaden Ivey’s spot, has taken just 28% of its shots from 3-point range, the second-lowest rate among 56 lineups that have averaged at least 10 minutes in five games or more.Their win over the Bulls on Sunday began a stretch where the Pistons are playing eight of nine games against teams currently below .500. The lone exception is a visit from the Cavs on Wednesday, when the Pistons will have a rest advantage. They’ve scored just 98.5 points per 100 possessions as they’ve lost the first two meetings with Cleveland.
Week 16: vs. ATL, vs. CLE, vs. PHI, vs. CHA
#19
Portland Trail Blazers
Last Week:23↑
Record: 20-29
OffRtg: 109.9 (25) DefRtg: 115.5 (26) NetRtg: -5.6 (26) Pace: 99.0 (18)
It appears that the Blazers are a good team now. They’ve won seven of their last eight games, with only one of the wins having been within five points in the last five minutes.
Three takeaways
The Blazers rank second defensively (104.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) over the 7-1 stretch. Three of the games have come against teams — Charlotte and Orlando (x 2) — that rank in the bottom three offensively, but they also held the Suns (who came in with the 11th-ranked offense) to just 108 points on 103 possessions on Saturday. Their opponents have shot just 29.1% from 3-point range over the eight games, and the Blazers have also held them to just 51.8% shooting in the paint, the third-lowest opponent mark over that stretch. The Blazers also rank 10th offensively over these last 15 days, with the last four games (124.4 points scored per 100 possessions) having been their most efficient stretch of the season by a healthy margin. Seven guys have averaged double-figures over the four games, led by Deandre Ayton, who scored 24 points on 11-for-12 shooting against his old team on Saturday.The Blazers have three games left on the first of two seven-game homestands. Another win over the Suns on Monday would make them the third team to match its win total from last season (21-61) and also give them a .500 record at the Moda Center.
Week 16: vs. PHX, vs. IND, vs. SAC, @ MIN
#20
San Antonio Spurs
Last Week:21↑
Record: 21-25
OffRtg: 112.3 (15) DefRtg: 113.8 (18) NetRtg: -1.5 (19) Pace: 99.7 (15)
The Spurs haven’t been very good over the last month, but they’ve now got themselves a long-term running mate for Victor Wembanyama, having acquired De’Aaron Fox for four* first-round picks.
* Only three, really. One of the four is the Hornets’ first-rounder this year, which will become two second-rounders if it lands in the Lottery (which it will).
Three takeaways
The Spurs have scored 11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Chris Paul on the floor (115.2) than they have with him off the floor (104.0). Paul and Fox will probably play some together, but Fox will surely be running the offense when Paul isn’t and should lift that off-the-floor number quite a bit. The 27-year-old Fox isn’t the passer that Paul is, but his quickness will bend the defense a lot more. He ranks sixth in the league with 16.0 drives per game, and he’s shot 58.7% in the paint, his second-best mark in his eight seasons in the league. The Spurs are only two games in the loss column behind the eighth-place, 25-23 Suns, but have played a West-low 46 games, so they’ve got more to make up in the wins column. The Warriors are the only team of the five in front of them who have an easier remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage.It’s rodeo time in San Antonio and the Spurs, who are one win from matching their total from last season (22-60), will go into the All-Star break with a six-game road trip. They’ve allowed 131.2 points per 100 possessions as they’ve lost their first two meetings with the Grizzlies, who they’ll visit (with a rest advantage) on Monday.
Week 16: @ MEM, @ ATL, @ CHA, @ ORL
#21
Philadelphia 76ers
Last Week:22↑
Record: 19-29
OffRtg: 111.2 (21) DefRtg: 114.9 (23) NetRtg: -3.7 (23) Pace: 97.3 (28)
The Sixers are still without Paul George and Joel Embiid, and they suffered a brutal collapse on Sunday, blowing a 26-point lead with less than 15 to go against the Celtics. But they’re still in a much better place than they were a few weeks ago.
Three takeaways
After winning four straight games, the Sixers have lost two in a row. But they were close games against good teams (Denver and Boston) and they rank sixth offensively (121.6 points scored per 100 possessions) over the six-game stretch. Eric Gordon has been on fire from 3-point range, Kelly Oubre Jr. has been crashing the glass, and Guerschon Yabusele had two huge games (49 total points) over the weekend. Tyrese Maxey has led the way, of course. He had seven straight games of 28 points or more on 50% shooting or better before the Celtics locked him down (taking him from 9-for-16 to 9-for-21) in the final 15 minutes on Saturday. He still scored efficiently against the champs by going 11-for-11 from the line, and he’s now 77-for-80 (96%) from the stripe over the last 25 days. The Sixers rank second in free throw rate with Embiid (10 attempts per game over his career) having played in only 13 of their 48 games.The Sixers’ six-game homestand concludes with a second straight Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back in which they’ll host Dallas and Miami.
Week 16: vs. DAL, vs. MIA, @ DET, @ MIL
#22
Toronto Raptors
Last Week:24↑
Record: 16-33
OffRtg: 110.3 (23) DefRtg: 115.3 (25) NetRtg: -5.0 (24) Pace: 100.2 (9)
After winning eight of their first 39 games, the Raptors have won eight of their last 10.
Three takeaways
The Raptors only rank 21st offensively over this 8-2 stretch, but only the Clippers (who the Raptors just beat on Sunday) have allowed fewer points per 100 possessions over the last three weeks. The last seven games have all come against teams in the bottom half of the league offensively, but it’s still a huge defensive improvement for a team that ranked 28th on defense through Week 12. The win over the Clippers on Sunday was the Raptors’ first victory (in six games) with their desired starting lineup, which has still played just 85 total minutes together. Immanuel Quickley returned from an eight-game absence over the weekend and shot 8-for-13, but played less than 33 total minutes over two games. The door to the SoFi Play-In Club is wide open for both the Sixers and Raptors should they want to compete for a playoff spot. Toronto has been playing the best among the teams currently seeded 8-12, and it also has the league’s easiest remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage.But it doesn’t get easy until the end of the month, and five of the Raptors’ six games before the All-Stare break are against five of the top six teams in the league. They’re currently 1-11 against the top six, with the one win having come against the team – Boston – that they’re not facing in the next 10 days.
Week 16: vs. NYK, vs. MEM, @ OKC, @ HOU
#23
Orlando Magic
Last Week:17↓
Record: 24-26
OffRtg: 106.9 (29) DefRtg: 108.6 (3) NetRtg: -1.8 (20) Pace: 96.6 (29)
After picking up a big win over the Pistons nine days ago, the Magic lost the first three games of a six-game road trip, sliding below .500 and into eighth place in the East.
Three takeaways
The offense remains ugly. The Magic had a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead in Miami last Monday, but they scored just 26 points on their final 38 possessions as they lost in double-overtime. Then they scored less than a point per possession against two bottom-five defenses in Portland and Utah. Since Christmas, the Magic (101.8) have scored 2.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league’s second-worst offense (that of the Wizards) over that stretch. The offensive numbers have been even worse (93.6 points scored per 100 possessions) in 128 minutes with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the floor together over the five games since the latter’s return. Banchero has shot just 33% (including 5-for-28 from 3-point range) over that stretch.They’ll play four more games against the West this week, finishing their six-game trip and then returning home to host the Spurs on Saturday.
Week 16: @ GSW, @ SAC, @ DEN, vs. SAS
#24
Atlanta Hawks
Last Week:20↓
Record: 22-27
OffRtg: 110.3 (24) DefRtg: 113.4 (16) NetRtg: -3.1 (21) Pace: 104.1 (2)
Two weeks ago, the Hawks were 22-19 and in sixth place in the East. They’ve since lost eight straight games, falling to ninth and Jalen Johnson is out for the season.
Three takeaways
The first six games of the losing streak were more about the offense that now ranks 24th, a huge disappointment given how good the Hawks have been on that end of the floor over the last four years. Even with some improvement over the last two games, the Hawks have shot just 30.2% from 3-point range over the streak, with De’Andre Hunter (who had a great look at a go-ahead 3 go in and out vs. Houston on Tuesday) just 12-for-49 (24%). The Hawks have been one of the league’s most improved defensive teams this season, but have allowed more than 129 points per 100 possessions over the last two games. That includes 79 on 53 (1.49 per) over the two first quarters, falling into big holes both nights. Neither the Cavs nor the Pacers shot great from 3-point range, but they were a combined 65-for-87 (75%) in the paint. The losing streak coincides with Onyeka Okongwu starting, though the Hawks have been much better with him on the floor (minus-3.0 points per 100 possessions) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-18.6) over the eight games.It’s a bad time for the Hawks to be playing poorly because they have a lot of important games in the 6-11 tier in the East this month. They’re 0-2 against the seventh-place Pistons, who they’ll visit (with a rest advantage) on Monday.
Week 16: @ DET, vs. SAS, vs. MIL, @ WAS
#25
Chicago Bulls
Last Week:26↑
Record: 21-29
OffRtg: 111.8 (17) DefRtg: 115.3 (24) NetRtg: -3.4 (22) Pace: 103.9 (3)
The Bulls got a couple of pretty good wins last week, but seemingly pulled the plug on competing for a Play-In spot in the East by trading Zach LaVine (and getting their own 2025 first-round pick back) on Sunday.
Three takeaways
The Bulls have beat Toronto (a team that could take that final SoFi Play-In spot from them) twice without LaVine, ending the Raptors’ five-game winning streak (with good minutes from their bench) on Friday. But overall, they were outscored by 8.7 points per 100 possessions (scoring just 105.1 per 100) in 973 minutes with LaVine off the floor. The Bulls went 174-242 (.418) with LaVine in uniform over his 7 1/2 seasons in Chicago, winning a single playoff game. His was seemingly their hardest contract to trade (though he made it easier by having a career year), so more deals could be coming. There have been four instances of a team scoring at least 80 points in the paint this season, and the Bulls have been the opponent in three of the four, with Detroit shooting 40-for-61 in the paint on Sunday. There’s a pace factor there (more possessions lead to more points), but the Bulls’ have also allowed the most points in the paint per 100 possessions (53.9).The Bulls are home for four of their final five games before the All-Star break, though they’ll be at a rest disadvantage when they visit the Wolves on Wednesday.
Week 16: vs. MIA, @ MIN, vs. GSW
#26
New Orleans Pelicans
Last Week:25↓
Record: 12-37
OffRtg: 109.5 (26) DefRtg: 117.8 (28) NetRtg: -8.2 (29) Pace: 99.8 (13)
It’s been a brutal season for the Pelicans, who took their hardest hit on Friday, when Dejounte Murray was lost to a torn right Achilles.
Three takeaways
Murray didn’t play a single minute alongside both Brandon Ingram (who’s now missed the last 25 games) and Zion Williamson (who’s played in only 13). The Pelicans didn’t have all of their top six guys — Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Ingram, Trey Murphy III and Williamson — once this season. They’ve had five of the six only twice and on average, they’ve had 3.1 of them per game. An Achilles tear doesn’t offer the Pelicans the opportunity to just start fresh next fall, as it’s likely Murray (who has a player option in 2027-28) won’t be back until 2026. The good news is that they have their own Draft pick (and likely the Bucks’ pick as well).The Pelicans take a five-game losing streak into a tough four-game trip, where three of the games are in Denver (x 2) and Oklahoma City. They’re 1-11 against the top seven teams in the West, with the one win having come against the Nuggets without Nikola Jokić.
Week 16: @ DEN, @ DEN, @ SAC
#27
Utah Jazz
Last Week:28↑
Record: 11-36
OffRtg: 110.9 (22) DefRtg: 118.2 (29) NetRtg: -7.3 (28) Pace: 99.8 (14)
The Jazz put an end to an eight-game losing streak (their longest of the season) on Saturday, but remain alone in last place in the Western Conference.
Three takeaways
The Jazz have been healthy for the last two games, just the third and fourth times since Christmas that Lauri Markkanen and John Collins have both been available. The Jazz are just 5-9 when they’ve started a frontline of Markkanen, Collins and Walker Kessler, but they’ve now outscored opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions in the trio’s 263 minutes on the floor together. The Utah offense has been at its best (112.6 points scored per 100 possessions) with Collin Sexton on the floor. Sexton led the Jazz in their win over the Magic on Saturday, scoring 22 points and dishing out eight assists. His numbers have been pretty consistent across his three seasons in Utah, over which he has an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%, up from 50.4% over his four seasons in Cleveland.The Jazz will now face the Pacers’ eighth-ranked offense for the first time, and their visit to Phoenix on Friday will begin a stretch of seven straight games against teams with winning records.
Week 16: vs. IND, vs. GSW, @ PHX, @ LAC
#28
Brooklyn Nets
Last Week:29↑
Record: 16-33
OffRtg: 108.8 (27) DefRtg: 115.6 (27) NetRtg: -6.8 (27) Pace: 96.5 (30)
After a seven-game losing streak (with an 0-4 homestand), the Nets went on the road and picked up a couple of wins in Charlotte and Houston.
Three takeaways
The two wins were the Nets’ first two victories (they were previously 0-12) without Cam Johnson, who’s now missed 12 of the last 15 games. The effect of Johnson (and Cam Thomas, who’s missed 29 of the last 31) has been on offense, and it’s been the other end of the floor where the Nets have shown some improvement of late. They’ve allowed 107.1 points per 100 possessions over their last six games (fourth best over that stretch), down from 119.3 over their previous 12. It’s helped that the opponents have shot just 33.2% from 3-point range over the last six, but the Nets have also seen a reduction in the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come from beyond the arc, while also defending the paint better and fouling less. They’ve allowed just 91.7 points per 100 possessions in 102 minutes with Day’Ron Sharpe on the floor over the six games. They’ve also been turning teams over a lot. This team still ranks in the bottom five on both ends of the floor, but it ranks eighth in opponent turnover rate (15.4 per 100 possessions), having seen the league’s second biggest jump from last season (12.9 per 100, 24th).The Nets will go into the All-Star break with a five-game homestand, their longest of the season. It starts with another game against the Rockets, and they’ll have a rest advantage on Tuesday, with Houston at Madison Square Garden the night before.
Week 16: vs. HOU, vs. WAS, vs. MIA
#29
Charlotte Hornets
Last Week:27↓
Record: 12-34
OffRtg: 108.0 (28) DefRtg: 113.0 (14) NetRtg: -5.0 (25) Pace: 98.4 (22)
The Hornets are 1-5 on their nine-game homestand, with a 21-point loss to the Nets included.
Three takeaways
With their four-game losing streak, the Hornets are 1-15 without LaMelo Ball (1-14) or when he’s played fewer than 10 minutes (as he did before turning his ankle against the Lakers last Monday). They’ve scored just 103 points per 100 possessions over those 16 games and just 102 per 100 in their 1,192 total minutes with Ball off the floor. Their 83 points on 90 possessions on Wednesday were, statistically, Brooklyn’s best defensive game of the season. Miles Bridges is 5-for-32 (16%) from 3-point range over the four-game losing streak and is now below 30% for the season. His 29.5% from deep would be the worst mark for a player averaging at least six 3-point attempts per game since Kobe Bryant shot 28.5% on 7.1 attempts in his final season (2015-16). Over the four-game losing streak, the Hornets have been 52.5 points per 100 possessions better with Moussa Diabaté on the floor (plus-16.6) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-35.9). For the season, Diabaté is now a plus-71 in 726 minutes for a team that’s 12-34.The homestand continues with the Hornets’ third meeting with the last-place Wizards. Ball was in the lineup for both of the first two games, but he shot 7-for-31 from 3-point range as Charlotte lost them both.
Week 16: vs. WAS, vs. MIL, vs. SAS, @ DET
#30
Washington Wizards
Last Week:30
Record: 7-41
OffRtg: 104.1 (30) DefRtg: 118.4 (30) NetRtg: -14.3 (30) Pace: 102.6 (4)
The Wizards ran their losing streak to 16 games before getting a win in Minnesota (their first road victory since October) on Saturday.
Three takeaways
The Wizards still rank last on both ends of the floor and, though the Orlando offense has been much worse than theirs since Christmas, are closer to climbing out of the basement on defense. They’ve scored just 108.9 points per 100 possessions over their three wins since Christmas, with the win on Saturday (when the Wolves were without Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle) being the fifth time they’ve held their opponent under 105 per 100. With Alex Sarr missing the last 3 1/2 games, Jonas Valančiūnas has been in the starting lineup and Richaun Holmes has been getting minutes off the bench. With the vets manning the middle, the Wizards haven’t been fouling as much, with three of the last four games being the seventh, eighth and ninth times they’ve had an opponent free throw rate below 20 attempts per 100 shots from the field. The Wizards have played the league’s toughest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage and, even with the win over the Wolves, are 2-29 against the 16 teams currently over .500.Now, they finally get a little bit of schedule relief, with 21 of their final 34 games against teams currently at or below .500. Four of their seven wins have come against the Hornets and Hawks and they’ve yet to face the Nets, with games against all three of those teams this week.
Week 16: @ CHA, @ BKN, vs. CLE, vs. ATL
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