Last year, the most interesting conspiracy theory held that the Pentagon rigged the entire 2024 NFL season so the Chiefs could appear in the Super Bowl and Taylor Swift could help Democrats get re-elected in 2024. (Oops.) This year's football truthers have a less esoteric theory for why the Chiefs are definitely going to win the Super Bowl: Follow the money. They make a compelling case, but they're wrong.
Is it even possible to fix an NFL game?
It's definitely possible to fix a football game—not like they fix professional wrestling matches, but it could happen, and happen without players, coaches, trainers, and team owners having to agree to a predetermined outcome. You could, theoretically, fix a football game with a handful of crooked referees.
Evidence that the referees are helping Kansas City
Here are a few of the questionable calls in this weekend's very close playoff game between The Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills:
Remember that definition of "catch?" This is not an example of one:
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.And speaking of the refs deciding where the ball is spotted, in the below clip, The Bills are either just over or just behind the first down line. One ref immediately says first down. The other disagrees. Decision: Chiefs. Even though a close reading shows it was, in fact, a first down. This was the second first down the Bills earned in the same set of downs, by the way. The third down call was BS too:
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.It wasn't just the final game of the playoffs, either. Throughout the season, fans have been pointing out how tackles against Patrick Mahomes are called as "roughing the passer," despite not being particularly rough. Check out this "massive hit" in the Chief's playoff game against the Houston Texans. (Video only available on YouTube.) Note the incredulity in the voices of the commentators and note Mahomes' obvious flop. Here's another flop, just because it's funny:
It's hard to watch the Chiefs this season and come to any conclusion but "the fix is in." The sheer number of tight games where the Chiefs managed to eke out a last-minute victory, often with the help of a favorable call is evidence enough—11 games in one season that were won with a one-score margin of victory? It sure looks like cheating—unless you're a Chiefs fan.
Putting extra importance on events that confirm our biases and ignoring the ones that don't is human nature. Believe it or not, rabid sports fans might not be collectively checking themselves for confirmation bias as rigorously as they should be. How many roughing-the-passer calls are made against other running quarterbacks? Someone is probably keeping track, but fans aren't too interested in a comparative analysis.
Always consider the motive
As for the "storyline" argument, I'd be very surprised if the NFL believes that the people who watch football are excited to see the freaking Chiefs win another Super Bowl. I have no evidence except vibes, but if the idea is to produce a compelling narrative, the NFL needs better writers. The Chiefs winning three in a row is a lame story compared to "The always-terrible Washington Commanders, led by a rookie quarterback, manage to win the Super Bowl against all expectations," or even "Holy crap, the Detroit Lions are good this year?"
Referees are people, just like us
Referees and line judges are as prone to unconscious bias as anyone else. They make mistakes. Could it be that the officials are a little more likely to call penalties that favor the most famous player in the league? Sure, especially since he flops around like a damn soccer player. But are they doing it on purpose? Unlikely.
Thankfully, the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 will answer the question of NFL rigging once and for all. If the vastly superior Philadelphia Eagles lose to the overrated Chiefs, we'll all know that the fix is in.
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