Trump began his comeback with a bang – issuing dozens of executive orders intended to reshape the American administrative state. But Westminster breathed a sigh of relief when he held off from launching a full-blown tariff war which would inevitably hit the UK economy.
The Prime Minister is hoping to visit the President in the White House in the coming weeks, although no date has been set for the trip. But in the meantime Starmer will be unable to ignore the DC circus, given the massive impact that decisions taken by Trump will have on Britain.
In a briefing the day before, another spokesman battled to avoid hitting out at Trump’s close ally Elon Musk following claims he had delivered a fascist salute at a post-inauguration rally. The spinner would say only that “it’s for the individual to defend his own actions”, – but was then forced to clarify: “The Prime Minister would not be happy with a member of his Government doing a Nazi salute.”
The President has threatened to pull out of Nato, ending the decades-long security guarantee provided by the US to Europe, if other member states do not increase their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP – a huge increase from the current target of 2 per cent, which many countries still do not meet.
Trump signed a slew of executive orders on his return to the White House Photographer: Ben Curtis Provider: APThere are opportunities for the UK Government from the return of Trump. Talks on a free-trade deal were put in to the deep freeze when Joe Biden took power, but Whitehall officials are preparing to dust off the negotiating playbook for a possible restart.
Full access to the NHS
But experts have warned that the US will demand full access to the NHS on areas such as drug pricing and patents if the UK wants to secure a “full fat” deal.
Her comments were echoed by Liam Byrne, Labour chair of the Commons business and trade committee, who said that while it was unclear what shape the trade talks would take, the NHS is something US pharmaceuticals will demand to be on the table.
“But the bottom line to that is they’re seeking freedom to sell more US medicine at higher prices to the NHS. And the NHS is obviously a monopoly buyer, so has real power to drive prices down. I’m sure Big Pharma will make that case to Trump. Whether he would put that front and centre we have to see.”
David Henig, a trade expert at the European Centre For International Political Economy, warned the UK against watering down its own standards or taking too soft a line on tech to avoid tariffs, warning it could jeopardise the Brexit reset: “The UK government needs to be ready with both the offer of specific deals and retaliatory tariffs given the sheer unpredictability of Trump – but make sure not to compromise the UK regulatory approach or relations with European trade partners in particular.”
The climate may be even trickier territory: Trump, who has shown little interest in tackling global warming, immediately withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement. Adair Turner, who formerly led the UK’s Climate Change Committee, said this week that “you are living in delusion land” if you do not believe that the President’s actions will harm the global fight against higher temperatures – estimating that Trump’s return will add at least 0.2 degrees to the minimum possible level of temperature increases over the coming years.
He predicted that the UK would work more closely with other powers – not only the EU but also China, India and Brazil – to fill the gap, adding: “It’s about how that global leadership comes together and shows a moral example.”
This time it’s different
She warned: “It is difficult, there are not easy answers to the US stepping back from what has been quite a significant role from some of this architecture.” Meanwhile Byrne was more upbeat about the prospects of his party’s leader navigating the tricky balance of getting close to Trump while also insuring the UK against a US withdrawal from the geopolitical front line.
“He can absolutely find a middle path and and that’s what he will do, and it’s perfectly possible,” the Labour veteran said. “So ultimately, we have to bring together trade policy and economic security. That’s what UK grand strategy has always done at its best over the last four centuries, and we’ve just got to reinvent that for new times.”
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