It was a sharp move on a report -- later confirmed -- that Trump won't be initiating any tariffs to begin his term. The main lesson in that -- and I think we've learned this before -- is that Trump's bark is worse than his bite. There was fear this would be a more-unhinged version of Trump but so far he's looking like the same guy.
1) Noting to upset the stock market
A tariff war is a big risk to equities and so long as countries can credibly threaten to retaliate, then tariffs may never be fully implemented. Stanley Druckenmiller today said he thinks the US could get away with a 10% across-the-board tariff. I'm not so sure but it will depend on how other world leaders respond.
The front row of Trump's inauguration didn't feature powerful lawmakers or allies. It featured his family and the top tech titans, including Zuckerbeg, Bezos, Pichai and (of course) Musk. Tim Cook was earlier seated at churce with Zuckerberg and Bezos.
3) Energy is a real priority
Trump will declare an energy emergency and use all necessary resources to build critical infrastructure
That's a tradeable theme that's not new but I still believe it's early and I believe it bodes well for everyone involved in any kind of energy, whether foreign or domestic.
The administration document says "President Trump will take bold action to secure our border" and that will include sending troops and deportations of 'criminals'. There is nothing here on mass deportations and that aligns with the idea that Trump doesn't want to upset the economy. The bottom line is that an underclass of illegal, low-wage workers is good for business.
The launches of $TRUMP and $MELANIA are a low point for the President and for crypto in general, including the decision by Robinhood to list the Presidential grift. It's starting to look like it will be open season on financial fraud, which is a troubling development for anyone who believes in capital markets. I fear the signals it's sending particularly for young people who looking to work hard and invest. I'm not sure that's the path to prosperity in this economy.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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