December inflation data was very goodlooking at 12 month indicators it does not look like we've made a lot of progress on inflationif numbers continue like this is reasonable to think rate cuts could come in H16 of 8 months have been on target and reasonable to think that trend will continueif there is a surprise like last year Fed will need to stay on hold, optimistic disinflation will continueLooks like inflation is getting back to trendI don't think March can be completely ruled out Could see record sooner than the market expectsThree or four cuts could be possible this year if the data cooperates (the market is pricing in around 39 basis points cuts this year)The strong jobs report was a makeup from weaker earlier readsWhen look at all the indicators, the jobs market is solid, it is not boomingTariffs may not lead to higher inflation; does not see them as having a huge inflation effect.I think inflation is going to to continue tocome in toward the targetI may be more optimistic than my colleagues at the Fed
Wallers comments were more dovish. Yield s have dipped with the tenure now trading at 4.659% that's up 0.6 basis points.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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