Those who say it sceptically tend to take the view that the new Tory leader has not made enough of an impact to date – where is the policy? Where are the PMQs slam dunks? Those who ask it in an upbeat manner are hoping you will agree that Kemi Badenoch has hit the ground running: look how she can grab the news agenda with even a brief media appearance.
But on the flip side, her team have landed some key punches. The decision last week to force a vote on holding a public inquiry into grooming gangs bruised Labour and was a factor in causing some of Starmer’s MPs to reconsider their position after a weekend in their constituencies. Others point to her willingness to stand up to the Tory party rather than attempt to be a Tory-lite version of Nigel Farage’s Reform party. “There’s some serious work to do for the party but it’s also fair to say that if you had offered us this landscape in July, we would have taken it,” says a former minister.
At one point it looked as though the local elections in May would be the main battleground. However, Badenoch has been gifted a light reprieve thanks to the Labour government. Changes to local government mean some councils have been able to delay the votes by a year. This has led to frustration in Nigel Farage’s Reform party as they accuse the two main parties of dodging democracy for fear of losing to Reform.
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Read MoreHowever, the more immediate problem is that Badenoch cannot afford for the Tories to be a third party. This week The Spectator’s data hub, too, found that the Tories are now running behind Reform and Labour on a poll of polls metric – taking the averages.
This is what the shadow front bench were told at last week’s Cabinet meeting would be the focus, with decisions on policy offerings at the next election coming much further down the line. While this has been interpreted by some as meaning no policy at all for years, there is still scope for new stances and positions on policy. “What we are not doing is writing a manifesto for four years’ time now,” explains a Badenoch ally.
Instead, what Badenoch will come up against if she is not careful are calls for a deal of some sort with Reform. “A lot of Tories who don’t understand politics will do the straight maths and say if you add up the Reform and Tory vote, you beat Labour,” says a party old hand. “They’ll then say Reform and the Tories agree on more than they disagree on so some kind of deal needs to be done.”
Yet Tories on the right are already whispering about what type of arrangement might be possible. Would it simply be a plan for tactical voting or something more formal? If Badenoch wants to avoid these debates, she must show she can beat Farage on her own terms.
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