While pressures may ease as the winter passes, the health service may well face further challenges.
One former defence adviser said that missile strikes were “beyond the comprehension of most of the UK population” but were a growing risk, and that the country needed to bolster its civil defence preparation.
Last year, the outgoing head of the army called, General Sir Patrick Sanders warned that war with Russia would be a “whole-of-nation undertaking”, while former senior officer General Sir Richard Barrons said conscription could be necessary.
From cyber attacks to demand for blood soaring, or even direct attacks on hospitals, it would have to adapt rapidly. Here, defence and health experts share their advice to ready the NHS for conflict:
“An efficient and adaptable NHS will perform better in a crisis scenario,” said Ed Harding, managing director of the Health Policy Partnership. “Conflict or no conflict, we desperately need successes in alleviating pressures on the acute system, which includes moving services out into the community wherever we can, and supporting that via new roles but also digital options and better data sharing.”
Cutting edge technology could help with this, Mr Harding said, citing a recent advance in echocardiogram heart scans which means they can now be carried out by handheld, mobile devices at the patient’s home, rather than in hospital with long wait times.
“The more practiced we are at this, the more likely we could scale up acute supervision or adapt if hospital infrastructure was overwhelmed or damaged, and in the meanwhile we free up beds for others,” Mr Harding said.
Paramedics carrying elderly woman through University Hospital Coventry ward to be returned back to her nursing home (Photo: Lynsey Addario/Getty)These are currently available on the NHS app or website but may only display recent updates, and patients may have to contact their GPs for longer term records. GPs won’t be able to share health information from treatment at hospitals or other services, unless they have been shared with the patient’s GP.
“We need to ensure a secure and accessible supply of comprehensive patient data to different NHS teams and settings. A good example is better use of Electronic Product Information – whereby we provide more diverse and supportive data to patients on their medication or medical device via their smartphones, so enabling them to manage themselves more effectively.”
2. Boost cyber security
Experts warned this could worsen significantly if tensions rise with Russia, with a senior Cabinet minister warning the UK must prepare “exceptionally aggressive and reckless” cyber warfare.
“Cyber developments can bolster productivity and save millions of hours of staff time. The challenge is that if we adopt AI en masse now, we don’t have consistent, infrastructural foundations at the local level which mean it could open us up to more risk,” Mr Jeffrey said.
Ambulance services in the North East were disrupted by the 2017 Wannacry attack (Photo: Peter Nicholls/Getty)To improve, the central NHS could make local trusts deliver plans for improving their cyber security, better utilise free services provided by the National Cyber Security Centre, and focus on strengthening its supply chain.
“Last year, Synnovis [a pathology laboratory which processes blood tests on behalf of a number of NHS organisations] was the victim of a cyber attack, and this had massive financial repercussions.”
The health service’s digital team provides onsite assessments to help NHS organisations identify vulnerabilities, and brings in an external service to measure cyber risk. It is constantly flagging and responding to cyber alerts, ranking them by threat level and responding according.
“The UK and its allies need their societies and economies to be as productive and their workforce agile,” the health expert said.
A major factor in improving the health of the nation will be tackling obesity, with the rollout of weightloss jabs such a Ozempic likely to be a key tool.
4. Don’t overlook routine care
Lessons can be drawn from the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr Harding said the NHS focused on infectious disease control but “dropped the ball” on long-term health conditions.
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Read MoreAt least 1.5 million NHS operations were cancelled by mid 2021, according to the University of St Mary’s London, while between March and November 2020, referrals for suspected lung cancer were down to 35 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, equating to 18,000 missed people.
There are a series of laws in place which mean the NHS must be able demonstrate that they can deal with critical incidents while maintainingservices to patients, and the service says it has a clear leadership pathway with accountable decision-making in response to any crisis.
5. Integrate health planning with everything else
To prepare the NHS for conflict, health, defence and economic planning should be better integrated, experts said.
One easy step is to include the Health Secretary as a member of the National Security Council, they said.
Medical historian called Dr Martin Moore of the University of Exeter said that lessons in planning could be drawn from the Emergency Medical Service in the late 30s.
It secured blood for transfusions, stockpiles of bandages, and system of air raid preparation among civilians to address potential physical and psychological trauma.
A Welsh Government spokesperson said it would work with the UK Government on plans to ensure the NHS in Wales is as prepared as its counterparts.
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