Before today, I was a little (superficially) confused as to why the Toronto Blue Jays hadn’t yet extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Surely, if they had the money to pursue Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, they’d have the funds to extend their own homegrown superstar bat, right?
Guererro Jr. may not belong in that elite S-tier of hitters (Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez), but he’s arguably just a half-step down (in terms of the bat), alongside guys like Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. Plus, he’s only 25! So why not just keep and build around him?
Well, as it turns out, there’s a pretty good reason why it hasn’t happened (yet).
Just before Christmas, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Blue Jays had re-engaged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a potential extension. But at the time, Rosenthal didn’t share many specifics. He knew that $400M was seen as a starting point from Guerrero’s perspective, but the range drifted as far north as $600M. Plus, we didn’t know much of anything on Toronto’s thinking. Were they even close? How serious were these efforts?
Fortunately, after a new report today, we have a little more detail all around – from Guerrero’s asking price, to Toronto’s current offer, to the timing of a deal, and even which team Guerrero Jr. is thinking about in free agency. So let’s dig in.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Sky-High Asking Price
At USA Today, Bob Nightengale reports that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays are “at least $100M apart (in their negotiations), with Guerrero seeking at least $450M.”
Oooookay, then. My apologies to the Blue Jays.
If Toronto is in the range of $340-$350M on their extension offer to Guerrero, they should feel pretty comfortable with their effort. Again, Guerrero Jr. is one of the best young hitters in the game, no question about it, and he may even prove wise to decline that sort of offer (like Soto did with the Nats). But I do not think the Blue Jays are lowballing him here, all things considered.
Yes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was elite in 2021 (166 wRC+) and last season (166 wRC+), with an even crazier second half (217 wRC+). But he was definitely not that guy in 2022 (132 wRC+) or 2023 (118 wRC+). So there’s at least some question as to whether he is (A) an elite, MVP-caliber hitter (160 wRC+ range) or merely (B) an All-Star-caliber bat (130 wRC+ range). Throw in the important fact that he plays first base – and not exceptionally well – and, yeah, $350M seems pretty fair.
Let’s also not pretend like that’s a ridiculously low offer. A $350M contract would place Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fourth all-time, between Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper. On its face* and if it’s accurate, that is a real, fair offer from the Blue Jays.
*Don’t forget that an offer in Canada could be worth less than an offer in certain U.S. states, relative to the tax impact, plus there’s always a chance that the deal is so heavily deferred as to not actually be worth close to $350M. We just don’t know.
© Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY SportsOn the flip side … the circumstances are ideal for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to bet on himself. According to Baseball Reference, Guerrero has already made $42.3 million throughout his big league career and he’s about to make another $30ish million (via arbitration) in 2025. This is not a guy that needs to lock in his life-changing money while he still can. He already has.
And seeing what Juan Soto just got at a similar age this winter likely has him drooling. If Guerrero delivers another 160 wRC+ (or higher) campaign in 2025, he may yet get his $450M+ deal (in addition to the $30M he’ll bag in 2025). And if he doesn’t, he’s young enough and has already earned enough to take a short-term/opt-out heavy deal if he wants to try again at the big money.
So what about timing? And is there any preference in free agency?
According to Nightengale, these negotiations have an expiration date. And if the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. don’t find common ground on an extension by spring training, that’ll be that. He’ll test free agency after 2025.
And when he does test free agency, Nightengale also reports that “he would love to be with the Red Sox,” which is apparently why the Red Sox are being sheepish in their pursuit of Alex Bregman (Bregman is a third baseman who would push Rafael Devers to first if he signed in Boston). So the clock is ticking, and other teams may already be adjusting their plans with Guerrero Jr. in mind.
One final thought: This entire story is notable to us, Cubs fans, because the Cubs have a player, Kyle Tucker, in the same tier of hitter as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is also one year away from free agency. Tucker is about two years and two months older than Guerrero, so it’s not quite apples-to-apples, but their stories and upcoming free-agent journeys are definitely intertwined. I expect the Cubs will try to extend Tucker before Opening Day and/or before free agency, but I think the odds of that effort succeeding are pretty low.
That’s not so much a comment on the willingness of the Cubs front office to do what it takes, but rather the realities of being a 27-year-old star bat just one year from free agency. The urge to bet on yourself is likely very strong.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( REPORT: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Asking Price, Free-Agent Team Preference, More )
Also on site :