Notre Dame and Georgia will face off in the final College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Jan. 2.
The teams will meet with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Notre Dame took care of business against Indiana in its Playoff opener, 27-17. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will be making their Playoff debut on Wednesday night. Georgia earned a first-round bye after defeating Texas in the SEC Championship Game.
Here’s a look at the betting odds for Notre Dame vs. Georgia as well as a breakdown of the game:
Notre Dame vs. Georgia betting odds
Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:
Spread: Notre Dame +1 (-112) | Georgia -1 (-108)
Total: Over 45.5 points (-110) | Under 45.5 points (-110)
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Notre Dame has a very strong offense overall, but the Fighting Irish were a bit 1-dimensional this season. They rank 9th nationally in Game on Paper’s EPA-per-rush metric, but outside of the top 50 in EPA-per-pass.
The running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price were excellent this season as they both rushed for roughly 7 yards per attempt. Love is a special talent, as he’s shown late in the year with 337 yards on just 28 carries against Army, USC and Indiana.
Transfer QB Riley Leonard got off to a slow start this season as a passer — he didn’t throw his first TD for the Fighting Irish until Week 4. But since then, he’s averaged 7.5 yards per attempt and has a TD-to-INT ratio of 17-4. Notre Dame has gone 10-0 in those games as well.
If there’s one thing to worry about with this Notre Dame offense, it’s perhaps a lack of significant tests. Leonard has not had to attempt a pass in any game where the Irish trailed in the 2nd half since their disastrous loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. On one hand, that speaks to how dominant Notre Dame has been for the past 4 months. On the other hand, how will Leonard perform as a passer if the game demands production from him through the air?
It’s stunning to say this considering we’re talking about a Kirby Smart-led defense, but the Bulldogs have endured a down year on that side of the ball. Georgia is outside the top 50 in EPA-per-rush allowed and EPA-per-pass allowed, according to Game on Paper. That stands in stark contrast to previous years, particularly against the pass. UGA ranked in the top 10 in EPA-per-pass allowed in 2023 and 2021.
Georgia has proven the ability to rise to the occasion in certain spots this season. In 4 games against Clemson, Texas and Tennessee, UGA allowed just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. However, teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech were able to inflict some pretty serious damage on the Bulldogs (9.6 yards per attempt).
You never really know what kind of performance you’re going to get out of Georgia on a week-to-week basis — only that the ceiling remains incredibly high. And that goes for both sides of the ball.
When Georgia has the ball
Georgia’s offense is difficult to analyze for a number of reasons. For one, this was UGA’s worst offensive season in quite some time. The Bulldogs struggled mightily on that side of the ball in multiple games this year, including in wins over Kentucky and Texas as well as in a loss to Ole Miss. The Bulldogs were under 5 yards per play in all 4 of those games. Before 2024, the last time Georgia’s offense produced fewer than 5 yards per play for a full game was 2021.
Carson Beck’s season-ending injury further complicates the ability to analyze this offense. Gunner Stockton will step in for the rest of the postseason, but he doesn’t have much game experience. He completed 12-of-16 passes for 71 yards and a (rather embarrassing) interception against Texas in the SEC title game. Before being thrust into action against the Longhorns, he only had 1 other appearance against a power-conference opponent and that was in garbage time against Florida State in last year’s Orange Bowl.
With Stockton in the lineup, Georgia will be expected to run the ball more than usual. Nate Frazier and Trevor Etienne are a formidable duo in the backfield, but the Bulldogs haven’t been super efficient on the ground this season. They rank outside the top 40 in rushing success rate and EPA-per-rush this season, according to Game on Paper.
Defensively, Notre Dame’s strength is in the secondary. The Fighting Irish enter this weekend with the No. 1-ranked pass defensive efficiency rating in the country. Notre Dame has been merely mediocre against the run, but it generally performed the best in its biggest games this season. USC is the only power-conference team to rush for more than 5 yards a carry on the Irish this season. Notre Dame held Texas A&M, Army, Indiana and Georgia Tech to under 4.5 yards per attempt (adjusted for sacks).
Still, if Georgia is going to move the ball consistently, it seems likely that it will come from the ground game. Notre Dame enters this game ranked 90th in the country in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
Betting the spread in Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Georgia bettors can back the Bulldogs at -1 (-110) at a number of books, including Caesars. The best price for Notre Dame comes from FanDuel (+1.5 at -115).
In a virtual coin flip game, I’m inclined to back the more consistent team. Notre Dame has arguably been the nation’s most dominant team since its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Only Indiana has a better point differential than the Irish in 2024. Georgia has lacked consistency all season and now has to play with an inexperienced, backup quarterback in Stockton. I think Notre Dame finds a way to win.
PICK: Notre Dame +1 (-110 via Caesars)
How to bet the total in Georgia vs. Notre Dame
The total for this game is at 45.5 points across the board. However, the juice varies slightly from book-to-book. Over bettors can get -105 juice at ESPN BET while under bettors can get the same price at BetMGM.
I think this number is a bit too low. I think both teams will be able to run the ball with some measure of success even if the passing game stalls. Stockton and Leonard are both liable to have a bad turnover or 2 as well, which could help get this one to the over.
PICK: Over 45.5 points (-105 via ESPN BET)
Prop bet pick in Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame -1.5 (+146 on FanDuel) in the 1st quarter. This is almost purely a trends play. Notre Dame is +62 in the 1st quarter this season while Georgia is -5. UGA averaged a little over 4 points per 1st quarter this season, and that was with Beck under center. I don’t expect Mike Bobo and the Bulldogs to be overly aggressive with Stockton as he makes his first career start. Notre Dame averaged almost 7 yards per play this season in the 1st quarter against power-conference competition, so I expect Mike Denbrock to have a good game plan from the jump against the Bulldogs.
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