In its 2025 Yearbook, SIPRI estimates that there are 12,241 nuclearwarheads worldwide as of January 2025, with 9,614 in active military stockpilesand approximately 2,100 on high operational alert—most of which belong to theUnited States and Russia.
The report notes that China is rapidly expanding its nucleararsenal, with projections indicating it could match the intercontinentalballistic missile capabilities of the United States or Russia by the early2030s. SIPRI estimates that China has been adding nearly 100 warheads annuallysince 2023.
Regional Implications for the Middle East
The report’s release comes as Iran and Israel continue to exchangemissile and drone strikes, escalating fears that regional instability coulddeepen into a broader conflict involving weapons of mass destruction. Thecollapse of traditional arms control mechanisms, such as the New START Treaty,which is set to expire in 2026, further complicates the internationalcommunity’s ability to manage nuclear escalation.
SIPRI concludes its yearbook with a stark warning: “A dangerous newnuclear arms race is emerging,” driven by global power competition, weakeneddiplomatic channels, and a rapidly changing technological environment.
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