The Detroit Lions were looking like a force. It was Dan Campbell’s magnum opus, with an offense hitting body blows against overwhelmed defenses before capping off drives with designer play head shots and a defense that snuffed out opposing run games and dared offenses to beat their tight man coverage.
But the Lions, unfortunately, have suffered from an injury bug that has seemingly sent every type of player at every position group to the infirmary. While the offense is still one of the best in the league, even potentially being able to withstand the loss of David Montgomery, the defensive improvement (currently ranked fifth in FTNFantasy’s defensive DVOA statistic) has been a key reason for their viability as a Super Bowl favorite. The Lions are still the betting favorites in the NFC and tied as the overall favorite (with the Bills) at +425 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM’s book, which speaks to how good their offense has been and how they’ve been able to withstand previous losses.
The Lions have overcome losing star players like Aidan Hutchinson and key contributors like Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez amongst others. But how they overcome the losses of more true needle-movers like defensive tackle Alim McNeill (who played at an All-Pro level this season) and feisty cornerback Carlton Davis, a key component of their suffocating man coverage, will determine their viability as a contender.
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The Lions’ injuries have opened the door for other teams to jockey for position for not only the No. 1 seed in the NFC — which comes with a week to rest, heal and guarantee playing indoors for Jared Goff — but also for their own claim at another division title in the NFC North. The Eagles are nipping at the Lions’ heels for conference favorite (currently +450 to win the Super Bowl) and currently hold a 41% chance at the No. 1 seed, according to New York Times’ playoff simulator.
Philadelphia’s fantastic defense, dominant run game and explosive pass game has built as good of a case as anybody as Super Bowl favorites, but I wanted to focus on two other teams in the Lions’ own division, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, and their own cases as true contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.
Green Bay Packers
Current odds to win Super Bowl: +1300
Trailing the Lions and Vikings by two games with three to play and currently without tiebreakers to help, the Packers are essentially locked into being a wild-card team for the playoffs. Green Bay is comfortably the youngest team in the NFL, which provides a neat narrative framing for their improvement throughout the season, on both sides of the ball, especially since their Week 10 bye.
The Packers’ offense is a pleasure to watch. They major in several different run concepts in the run game, and are able to run each with equal aplomb. They can attack downhill with runs like Duo, and trust their line to get movement with double-teams and Josh Jacobs to burst through the open hole that presents itself.
They can attack on the outside with toss and zone plays, getting positive blocking from their tight ends (led by brawny Tucker Kraft aka Doomguy) and a wide receiver room that is willing to scrap. Christian Watson has become a pleasant surprise as a blocker, going from outright poor at it to someone who’s actually willing to fit up on defensive backs at the point of attack.
The Packers also feature their wide receivers as runners, primarily with multi-threat Jayden Reed getting the touches. They lead all NFL teams with 10 rushing first downs and eight explosive runs (gains of 12 or more yards) on their designed runs to WRs this season. Three offenses are tied for second with four explosive WR runs. Reed himself has six.
These runs are offshoots and concepts that are great at controlling overzealous defenders that start honing in on the Packers’ primary runs. And a way to tie into things like the Packers’ spinner package, which features split backs, motion and plenty of backfield eye candy after the snap of the ball. Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich (whose head coach profile should be growing based on the past two seasons) do a phenomenal job of not only tying their plays together, but tweaking the motions and backfield action to change who gets the ball or who is just a ghost on a weekly basis.
It was difficult for me to narrow down the exact plays I wanted to showcase in this article. The Packers, especially lately, have simply put that much good stuff out there with their designs and execution. How their players and coaches answered when Jordan Love missed time with an injury and had to start Malik Willis — a player acquired in the same month before his first Green Bay start — was one of the better coaching jobs by any team this season. And the Packers didn’t just throw the run-heavy game plans in the trash when Love returned as starter, instead taking pieces of their spin action series and implementing into their base game plans going forward. (And also inspiring every team that played against the Colts afterwards to steal from the Packers’ own Week 2 gameplan.)
Packers’ passing game behind Jordan Love has been great too
On top of this varied and well-designed run game that ranks ninth in early down success rate since the Week 10 bye, there’s Love, the trick shot-addicted quarterback that has never faced a tight window that he doesn’t like to throw into. With Love on the field, the Packers’ offense ranks as a top-10 passing attack in terms of success rate (10th) and EPA per dropback (tied for eighth with the Eagles) and averaging the second-most overall yards per play on offense (6.3, behind only the Ravens). But this is a young team with a young offense, especially in the pass-catching room. And young teams and players take time to gel, grow, and work through early season botches and missteps. The Packers neatly fit that narrative of an offense starting to put it together after a deep breath over the bye week.
How has that Packers passing game been performing since Week 10? I’m glad you asked. Because it’s been exceptional and the performance is matching the intent of this offense: a willingness to pound the rock, daring safeties to creep up, and then having their big-armed QB launch throws over, under, and around defenses.
Since Week 10, the Packers rank first in explosive pass rate (a comical 20.2%, for reference), first in EPA per dropback, third in dropback success rate (behind only the Lions and Dolphins), and third in EPA per play (behind only the Bills and Lions) … while also featuring a top-10 efficient run game and Love taking sacks at a miniscule 3% rate (third in the NFL among qualifying QBs). The latter is an astounding stat that speaks to Love’s sack avoidance, considering how aggressive the Packers’ pass game is.
This is an offense with a formula for January, especially with pass-catchers like Watson, Kraft, Reed and Romeo Doubs all playing strong football in recent weeks (and tight end Luke Musgrave potentially returning soon). I trust this unit, even with their youth, to be up for the weekly task of facing playoff game plans, something they proved capable of in last year’s playoffs.
But this unit has added even more layers to their game planning (and a more dependable run game with Jacobs). It’s not just an explosive and exciting unit that lives off highlight plays. The minutiae of this offense has solidified into something reliable — and scary for opponents to defend.
with not a ton of space just outside redzone, this is a nice job by Jordan Love to throw Romeo Doubs away from the defender and give him a chance on the ball.
Doubs finishes with an outstanding catch for the TD. pic.twitter.com/a4XU1Gr2m8
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 16, 2024
Packers’ defense has also been sharp post-bye
The Packers’ defense has also started to sharpen its play after the bye week. A unit that has relied heavily on turnovers (shoutout to safety Xavier McKinney) has started to figure out a formula, and particular players, that work for them.
The Packers currently rank eighth in defensive DVOA and sixth in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent performance more heavily. Since Week 10, the Packers rank second in the NFL in sacks (18) and eighth in defensive success rate. They are steady against both the run and pass, too. These are underlying stats that match the eye test when watching the Packers’ defense. It’s not all perfect, but it’s a unit that feels like it has found something that works.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has primarily been a single-high aficionado as a defensive play-caller throughout his career. And while he still has majored in Cover 3 during in his first season as the Packers’ defensive coordinator, he also has started to use Cover 2 as his primary change-up. Actually, he’s been using Cover 2 so much since the bye — the Packers’ use of Cover 2 nearly double from 15.8% to 27.9% (easily the highest rate in the NFL) after Week 10 — that it can be more accurately categorized as another fastball in Green Bay’s arsenal.
Hafley, and especially the Packers defensive backs, have been doing a great job of disguising their main coverage look, Cover 3, and then rotating to Cover 2 at the snap of the football. It’s a great way to dissuade defenses from trying to run the ball into what they think will be a loaded box. It’s also two coverage looks with completely different answers for the quarterback to find after the snap of the ball. The clips below against the Seahawks show how the Packers almost baited Geno Smith into a sideline throw, not anticipating that there would be a cloud (Cover 2-playing) cornerback in the flat.
The Packers defense, especially since their bye week, have loved to use Cover 2 as their change-up to their standard Cover 3 looks. They do a great job of holding their single-high shell before rotating after the snap. pic.twitter.com/VlEbUTAMWL
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