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Is a recession looming? ...Middle East
The financial press is full of speculation over the prospects for a recession in late 2022 or 2023. While it’s not easy to predict turning points in the business cycle, two factors have at least some predictive power. First, certain economic fundamentals, such as an overheating economy, can make a recession more likely. Second, asset prices in financial markets often provide useful signals before the data show up in slower-moving macroeconomic indicators. Let’s start with the fundamentals. It is often said that if the Federal Reserve could predict a recession then it could prevent the recession. Strictly speaking, this is only true of recessions that occur when the economy is relativel
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