The acquisition of Kevin Durant makes the Houston Rockets a contender. The growth of Jabari Smith Jr. could make them a champion.
The NBA offseason is a time of hope for all 30 teams, but it’s especially thrilling for teams on the fringes of contention that decide to take the jump.
This offseason, that team was undoubtedly the Houston Rockets. It would be easy to say they were championship contenders this past season, as they won 52 games and earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
But the Rockets lost a seven-game first-round series to the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors and did not have the on-ball creation necessary to make a serious run. So they added one of the more malleable superstars ever in Kevin Durant, albeit for his age-37 season.
Houston didn’t stop there, either, bringing in Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela as new additions, re-signing Aaron Holiday and Jae’Sean Tate, and extending the contracts of Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr. and Steven Adams.
The new additions are exciting and vault Houston into the tier of teams directly below the NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder. But for the Rockets to win in the playoffs, they’re going to need one of their returning talents to play to his potential.
The Right Fit for KD
The Rockets were seen by many outlets as the team most likely to acquire Durant this offseason because the fit was so apparent. However, that doesn’t mean it should be glossed over just how much he upgrades the team.
In the half court, the Rockets were near the bottom of the league in efficiency for most play types. The lone exception is post-ups, as Alperen Sengun was able to maintain a respectable efficiency despite a very high volume of them often with cramped spacing.
Sengun is a fantastic offensive player, but asking him to gain an advantage for the offense every play without the ideal complementary spacing or creation on the floor is a lot to ask.
The Warriors knew making life hard for the Turkish big man was the key to deadening the Rockets, and so they poured most of their defensive resources into stopping him in the playoffs.
It resulted in a dip in efficiency from Sengun (1.27 points per shot in the regular season compared to 1.12 in the playoffs) and some truly disastrous offensive games for the Rockets. They lost Game 7 at home 103-89 while shooting 40.5% from the field and only making six 3-pointers.
It was the kind of performance that makes a team desperate to upgrade, so the Rockets turned to one of the best offensive players of all time in hopes that he still has plenty left in the tank.
Durant’s game has certainly declined from his peak, but he can still score. Last season, he had the third-best adjusted field-goal percentage of his career (59.8%) and his second-best season from 3-point range (43.0%). He can still start and finish possessions and score on and off the ball.
The Rockets have solid role players, but outside of Fred VanVleet and Sengun, no one to put the fear into defenses. Now they have a five-alarm fire no team dares to leave open.
Because Durant fits into most systems, it’s been easy for teams to overlook what team works best around him. The Rockets, however, have all the pieces to supplement Durant at this point in his career.
The Phoenix Suns were a shallow team that needed Durant to play a ton of minutes to have any chance of competing. Because of that, they stretched him to his breaking point. Durant averaged 36.6 minutes in his age-36 season last year. It was the most by a player that old since Michael Jordan played 37.0 per game on the 2002-03 Washington Wizards.
KD won’t have to do that in Houston. The Rockets were the No. 2 seed in the West without him. They can play him fewer minutes and give him extra time off when he needs it.
They also don’t need Durant to be one of the best defenders on the team. Ryan Dunn was a nice find for the Suns, but they didn’t have good perimeter defenders or a massive presence at the rim. Durant was expected to carry a huge burden offensively and also cover his teammates on the other end.
The Rockets don’t need any coverage there because they have plenty of big, nasty, physical defenders. The Rockets needed someone to unlock doors they couldn’t get through before. When there are doors that just need to be kicked down? They already got plenty of guys for that.
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It’s extremely difficult to get through the playoffs playing one way. The Thunder leaned into being adaptable on the way to their title in 2025, and the Rockets clearly took note.
They now have a deep bench with three centers who will demand playing time and allow the team to keep utilizing dual big lineups. They also have depth on the wing, giving them plenty of options for trades down the line and a rotation that Ime Udoka will have a hard time juggling in the meantime.
What the Rockets need, though, is the ability to play big without two true bigs on the floor. There will be teams in the playoffs that make it difficult to play two of Steven Adams, Clint Capela and Sengun together for long stretches.
Fortunately for the Rockets, they have a 6-foot-10 player who can play like a wing on both sides of the floor when he’s at his best. And if Jabari Smith Jr. puts it all together this season, it will give his team a ton of flexibility come playoff time.
The idea of Smith is tantalizing, and he’s shown plenty of flashes. He can shoot, has a good jumper off the dribble in the midrange, and can use his size against smaller defenders. The former third overall pick only had 46 post-ups last year but averaged a sparkling 1.26 points per possession on them, per NBA.com.
But entering his fourth year, a lot of Smith’s value is still theoretical. He still shot just 43.8% from the field last year and 35.4% on 3s with an even assist-to-turnover ratio. DRIP projects him as below average on both ends of the floor because of his play last season.
The Rockets made a big bet that Smith will improve significantly, signing him to a five-year, $122 million deal. There is some sense to this thinking. He’s still only 22 years old and was in an offensive environment without enough creation. Now, he has the perfect mentor for a big wing in Durant, particularly as a defensive player.
Durant was an underrated defender in his prime and good at using his size, something Smith will have to do to be the backline help the Rockets need.
If Smith jumps up a level, the Rockets will have the flexibility to play a lot of different lineups. They can play him with zero, one or two traditional bigs on the floor, giving them varying looks to utilize against different playoff opponents.
Tari Eason is another big forward on the roster with the potential to play either forward spot and was probably better than Smith last season. He’s probably the backup plan in this role if Smith’s development stalls.
But Eason doesn’t have the ceiling of Smith and is two inches shorter. He also seems less likely to evolve into a great catch-and-shoot 3-point threat because of his other numbers.
The best version of the Rockets involves Smith starting next to Sengun and Eason coming off the bench as a supersub. The fully actualized Smith can shoot the lights out, attack closeouts and move the ball a bit quicker on offense. He’s also a massive defensive weapon that can be deployed at multiple positions.
That’s who the Rockets bet they’re getting when they extended him, and he’s in a better position to develop into that player now with the roster around him.
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NBA Free Agency: Will the New-Look Rockets Take Off With Kevin Durant, Improved Jabari Smith? Opta Analyst.
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