On Tuesday, the final manufacturing PMI data will be released for Japan, Switzerland, the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. Also on Tuesday, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Ueda, and Fed Chair Powell will speak at a panel discussion titled “Policy Panel” during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra.
Throughout the week, remarks are expected from various FOMC members and Friday will be a bank holiday in the U.S. in observance of Independence Day.
Both indexes are expected to deteriorate, largely due to the implementation of new U.S. auto tariffs. This tariff-related uncertainty is likely to exert pressure, particularly on the auto sector and other related industries.
On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is expected to stay on course with policy normalization, assuming the survey does not reveal a sharper deterioration in business sentiment. Analysts from Wells Fargo anticipate a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% in October, provided economic conditions remain stable and business outlooks hold up.
Overall, inflation continues to show signs of cooling, though this month’s slight uptick may be due to higher energy costs and rising goods prices. From a monetary policy perspective, the ECB is expected to deliver a final 25 bps rate cut at the September meeting, bringing the deposit rate down to 1.75%.
This week’s manufacturing data is expected to show a modest improvement but will likely remain in contractionary territory. Weaknesses in the sector are expected to persist as long as uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues, Wells Fargo analysts said.
June’s Swiss CPI release will be key in assessing whether the SNB’s recent rate cut to 0.00% was well-timed. May’s -0.1% y/y print, driven largely by lower energy and tourism-related prices, prompted the central bank to revise its short-term inflation forecast downward, projecting Q2 2025 inflation at 0.0%. With both April and May showing flat or negative readings, a positive June print is needed to support that quarterly projection.
In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs prior 0.4%; non-farm employment change is expected at 120K vs prior 139K; and the unemployment rate is likely to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%.
Wells Fargo analysts note that while generally employers are still reluctant to let go of existing workers, there are signs that layoffs have picked up with jobless claims rising to their highest level since 2021.
The services sector is performing slightly better than manufacturing, and this week's data is expected to show a return to expansionary territory. However, the sector remains vulnerable to trade-related headwinds. The anticipated improvement likely reflects modest stabilization, supported by resilient demand and easing cost pressures.
This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Market Outlook for the week of June 30th - July 4th )
Also on site :