Federal Reserve speakers on Monday include and Bostic and GoolsbeeEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde and de Guindos speaking on MondayCAD popped higher after the news that US-Canada trade talks are back onCanada rescinds Digital Services Tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the USJapan faces surge in food price hikes as inflation pressures intensifyChina PMIs - NBS says domestic consumption remains weak,Australia Private Sector Credit May 2025 % m/m (expected +0.7%, prior +0.7%)China official PMI data for June 2025: Manufacturing 49.7 (expected 49.7)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1586 (vs. estimate at 7.168)Australian private inflation survey, TD-MI Inflation Gauge +0.1% m/m (prior -0.4%)New Zealand data: Business Confidence (June 2025): 46.3 (prior 36.6)Saylor hints at another bitcoin buy, extending 11-week streakTrump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oilJapan May 2025 preliminary industrial production +0.5% m/m (expected +3.4%)US equity index futures and EUR rise, gold bouncing after its early dipUK business confidence hits highest level since 2015, says LloydsBOJ turns dovish - leans on ‘underlying inflation’ to justify slow hikes, messaging murkyEuropean Central Bank annual Sintra forum beings today, 30 June 2025Tcorp economist calls on RBA to abandon 2.5% inflation midpoint targetTrump troofs out, says he's a cost cutting RepublicanUS strikes on Iran nuclear sites less damaging than expected, intercepts revealTrump's chaotic trade policies to crush Australian commodity export earningsUSD set to get another thrashing after Trump's weekend debasement commentsTrade ideas thread - Monday, 30 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 30 June 2025Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISMs, EZ CPI, Japanese Tankan, China PMIs and Swiss CPIForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Ahead:
Early FX: Dollar Slips on Trump Rate Talk; Yen Gains Despite Weak Japan Data; China PMIs Mixed; Canada Scraps Tech Tax
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Opening ranges in early FX trade ahead of the Tokyo session saw the US dollar under pressure following weekend comments from former President Trump, which suggested further downside debasement risk for the currency:
“I don’t want to have to pay for 10 years debt at a higher rate.” “We’re going to get somebody into the Fed who’s going to be able to lower the rate.”
USD/JPY was an exception, dropping to around 144.10 after some early swings. This came despite a mixed Japanese industrial production report. May output rose 0.5% m/m — the best since February — but fell far short of the +3.5% expected. Year-on-year, output declined -1.8% versus a forecast +1.6% gain. Weak production forecasts for the coming months reflect the drag from US tariffs. While trade talks between Japan and the US are likely to continue for some time, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average hit an 11-month high.
In North America, Canada announced it will withdraw its planned digital services tax on US tech companies in a move to advance broader trade talks with the US. The decision, described as made “in anticipation” of a comprehensive agreement, came as Canada’s Carney and President Trump agreed to resume negotiations with the aim of reaching a deal by July 21. The Canadian dollar rose on the headlines.
US equity index futures traded higher, while gold reversed earlier losses to finish the session stronger.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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