WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Republicans appear ready to take an initial vote on their “big, beautiful bill” as soon as Saturday, which would set up final passage within a couple of days — though Majority Leader John Thune called the timeline “aspirational.”
GOP senators have been negotiating the sweeping tax and spending cuts package for weeks, trying to ensure the dozens of provisions meet the complex rules for writing a reconciliation bill and can garner the support needed to actually become law.
“We are continuing to explore options on all the outstanding issues,” Thune said Friday afternoon. But several Republican senators leaving a closed-door working lunch that lasted more than two hours told reporters they expect to see the final bill text possibly by Friday night before taking their first procedural vote at noon Eastern on Saturday.
However, when the Senate adjourned on Friday night, the time to convene again was at 2 p.m. Eastern — and no vote was scheduled.
Republicans were still going back and forth with the Senate parliamentarian throughout the day Friday as they tried to rework numerous policy changes she deemed not compliant with the guardrails for a reconciliation bill.
The special legislative process gets Republicans around the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster, but means the successful policy provisions need to have an effect on federal revenues, spending or the debt limit.
There were still various outstanding disputes among GOP senators about how exactly the bill should be structured. If those are not resolved before amendment debate begins, it could lead to Republicans publicly splitting on issues related to Medicaid, tax policy and several other issues.
Public lands, Medicaid provider tax
Montana Sen. Steve Daines said he’s still waiting to see whether the parliamentarian accepts a revised proposal from Utah Sen. Mike Lee that would lead to a sell-off of some public lands.
Daines didn’t want to comment on whether he’d bring up an amendment to strike the language from the bill, if it makes it into the final version of the package.
“He’s got to get it in the bill first. So it’s a hypothetical at this point,” Daines said. “I think there’s some trouble getting it through the parl. So I think that’s the most likely scenario.”
North Dakota Sen. John Hoeven said he believes Republicans have successfully reworked language addressing a change to the maximum percentage that states can set their Medicaid provider tax rate at. An earlier version reducing that rate from 6% to 3.5% over time was blocked by the parliamentarian.
“We think we’ve got it fixed, yeah. It’s just like on a number of these issues. We think we have it fixed. We don’t have the final word,” Hoeven said. “That’s what we talked about earlier. We think we’ll have the final word on this by the end of today, so we can start tomorrow.”
The Medicaid provider tax rate would normally be considered in-the-weeds, but has become a central debate within the GOP amid major concerns about how changes would affect rural health care systems.
Republicans may have also agreed to a final figure for a rural hospital fund meant to help offset the impact of Medicaid changes in the bill. That number will likely be higher than a previously floated $15 billion, but Hoeven didn’t say what the compromise will be.
“The number you all saw is $15 billion. It’s going to be bigger than that,” Hoeven said. “But I don’t have a specific number yet.”
Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pressing for that fund to be at least $100 billion.
SALT talks
Hoeven said that during the lunch, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., advocated for a $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductions, or SALT, for five years. The issue, also somewhat obscure, is crucial to the Senate bill making it back through the House, where GOP lawmakers from higher-tax states have been adamant the bill must help their constituents.
Hoeven said the goal is to reach final agreement among Republicans and clear those changes with the parliamentarian, so the Senate can take its procedural vote on the bill Saturday around noon.
Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin said he thinks both chambers are getting close to reaching a final deal on the state and local tax deduction.
“We still have some talking to do in the Senate, but I think we’re getting close,” Mullin said, declining to get into numbers.
Senators, he said, are planning to take the procedural vote around noon Saturday, setting up an amendment voting session that can last upwards of 12 hours and might begin later that day or Sunday morning.
“There’s a discussion about starting it earlier in the morning than in the middle of the night,” Mullin said. “So who knows?”
The bill clearing the House could come shortly after the Senate passes its version of the package, since that chamber’s 72-hour rule starts winding down once the Senate’s bill text is released, not once the Senate actually passes it.
“Putting on my hat from the House side. The 72-hour rule may not even have to be applied here because we’re amending the bill that’s already been put out,” Mullin said. “But I think what Speaker Johnson wants to do is give adequate time to go through it, which would be kind of a 72-hour rule anyway.”
Artificial intelligence
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz also said he expects the chamber will take the procedural vote around noon Saturday.
Cruz expressed confidence that a section in his committee’s bill preventing state and local governments from regulating artificial intelligence if they want part of a $500 million fund will survive a possible floor amendment.
“The provision is in the bill and I believe it will be in the final bill that passes,” Cruz said, appearing to brush aside weeks of criticism from fellow GOP lawmakers.
Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno was optimistic that both chambers will be able to pass the package before the party’s self-imposed Fourth of July deadline.
“Look, ultimately, at the end of the day, we’ll be in good shape. We’re going to get a bill across the finish line,” Moreno said. “The sausage-making can be ugly, but the final product is delicious.”
Sen. Ron Johnson was not as upbeat as some of his colleagues, storming up the steps just outside the closed-door lunch after it wrapped up, not wanting to speak to reporters.
“Notice I’m not really wanting (to) talk right now,” the Wisconsin Republican said.
“Go back downstairs,” he told a large group of reporters.
Asked about the timing of the procedural vote this weekend, Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley said, “it’s going to be brought up … there’s no question about that.”
“The question is, on final passage, will we need the vice president?” Grassley said. “And I’m glad he’s a Republican, but we gotta get it passed.”
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