What does it mean for global oil prices?
Is the Strait of Hormuz completely under Iranian control?
So, Iran is actually capable of seriously disrupting or blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Probably yes. Iran could attempt to lay mines across the Strait, which is 34 km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point. The country's army or the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could also try to strike or seize vessels in the Gulf.
According to Eurostat data, for the energy products analysed in this article, the following figure shows their share in total EU imports in 2021-2024 and in the first quarters of 2024 and 2025. The share of energy products in total EU imports showed significant fluctuations due to strong volatility in their prices and reached 22.8% of total EU imports in 2022. This was followed by a significant decrease to 17.8% in 2023 and again to 15.4% in 2024. In addition, in the first quarter of 2025, there was a decrease of 1.7 percentage points (pp) compared to the same quarter of 2024. The distribution by products shows that the shares of liquefied natural gas (+0.6 pp) and gaseous natural gas (+0.2 pp) increased between the first quarter of 2024 and 2025, while the shares of petroleum oils (-2.3 pp) and coal (-0.2 pp) decreased.
Forex Markets
In technical analysis, we can see that the price has returned from the resistance level in the weekly time series. Despite this, MACD continues to give bullish signals. In the event that military action does not occur, price declines may continue. Otherwise, strong price increases will only be a matter of time. The target will be 88.30$.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint in global oil supply, with about 20% of the world’s energy passing through it. The geopolitical tensions between Iran, Israel, and the wider Middle East have the potential to disrupt this vital shipping route, which would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices. Analysts have warned that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could soar above $110 per barrel, exacerbating an already volatile global market.
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