Who are the favourites to lift the FIFA Club World Cup trophy in 2025? With the knockouts about to begin, the Opta supercomputer’s Club World Cup predictions break down each team’s chances of success.
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup group stage is now over. We’ve seen 48 games and 144 goals scored – 7% of those by Bayern Munich in their 10-0 rout of Auckland City.
As expected, European clubs have performed well in the competition. Of the 12 sides from Europe to take part in the group stage, only three (Porto, Atlético Madrid and Red Bull Salzburg) have been eliminated.
Teams from the UEFA region had the greatest win rate (61.1%) and best points-per-game tally (2.03) in the group stage, but South American clubs have also done well. Admittedly, much of that is down to the excellent performances from Brazilian teams, with all four – Palmeiras, Botafogo, Fluminense and Flamengo – making it to the last 16 and at least one guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals.
None of the four African teams made it through to the knockout stage, while Al-Hilal will be Asia’s only representatives in the last 16.
With the final 16 teams at the tournament now known, who are the favourites to lift the trophy on 13 July?
The Opta supercomputer is sticking to its guns, giving Paris Saint-Germain the greatest chance of success. The Ligue 1 and UEFA Champions League winners were the pre-tournament favourites at 18.5%, but following the group stage, that has increased to 20.6% with half of the clubs remaining.
PSG eventually won Group B despite finishing level on points with Botafogo and Atlético Madrid following a shock defeat to the Brazilians on Matchday 2. Comprehensive victories over Atlético and Seattle Sounders have given the supercomputer enough confidence to stick by its initial prediction, though.
The only club to win all three of their group-stage games, Manchester City remain the second favourites, with their current chance of success (20.4%) a bit higher than their pre-tournament projection (17.8%). Champions League finalists Internazionale (12.4%) are considered third likeliest to win the tournament.
Real Madrid endured a difficult 2024-25 campaign, but with Xabi Alonso now in the dugout, they remain a dangerous team for anyone to face. Although unbeaten in the group stage and looking stronger as the competition progresses, they face a tricky encounter with Juventus in the next round.
As things stand, the Opta supercomputer sees them win the tournament in just 9.7% of the 10,000 simulations, which is just below Chelsea (10.4%) and Bayern Munich (11.3%), with the Germans potential opponents for Madrid in the semi-finals.
Despite the strong performances of the four Brazilian clubs in the group stage, none of them won the Club World Cup more than 1% of the time across the supercomputer’s latest 10,000 simulations. Palmeiras (0.9%) are deemed to have the best chance, followed by Flamengo (0.5%), Botafogo (0.4%) and Fluminense (0.1%).
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FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Predictions: Opta Supercomputer’s Knockout Projections Opta Analyst.
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