Women’s Euro 2025 is about to take centre stage in Europe, but who are the favourites to lift the trophy come the end of July? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions.
The stage is set for the 2025 Women’s European Championship, with some of the world’s powerhouses ready to fight it out for the trophy.
It is the 14th edition of the Women’s Euros – taking place 41 years after the inaugural tournament in 1984. The competition will take place from 2-27 July in Switzerland, which becomes only the sixth country to host both the men’s and women’s European Championship.
Fourteen of the 16 qualified teams have previously appeared at the European Championship, with Poland and Wales the only two teams that are making their debut appearance.
World champions Spain are looking to complete a full trophy set with a maiden European Championship victory, having also clinched the inaugural Nations League title last year.
But they face stiff competition from defending champions England and eight-time victors Germany, while France are looking to shake off their label as the best team to never make a major final.
Only five nations have ever won the women’s Euros, and just two have won it more than once, but will that change this year? Here, we delve into the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.
Women’s Euro 2025 Favourites
Spain (24.8%)
As the reigning world champions, Spain are undoubtedly the team to beat as they look to clinch their first European Championship title.
They have solidified their position as the strongest team in Europe by adding a UEFA Nations League title to their collection under Montse Tome, beating France 2-0 in the final in February 2024.
After winning the 2023 World Cup, Spain will be looking to become only the second women’s team in history to win consecutive World Cup and Euro tournaments after Germany, who won five in a row between 2001 and 2009 (2003 and 2007 World Cups, 2001, 2005 and 2009 Euros).
Spain have failed to make it past the quarter-finals in each of the last three editions of the Euros and have never reached a final, but they are expected to lift the trophy at the end of July by our supercomputer, with a 24.8% chance of success.
They are also favourites to reach the quarter-finals (87.7%), as well as the semi-finals (66.6%) and the final at St. Jakob-Park, Basel (39.3%).
La Roja proved their worth in qualifying, topping their group, while no team in League A won more points (15) or scored more goals (18) than they did.
They will, however, be without all-time leading scorer Jenni Hermoso, who has netted 57 goals in 123 appearances for her country but has been left out of the squad. Yet they still boast a star-studded pool of players, which includes 10 Barcelona players fresh off winning a domestic treble.
Two-time Ballon d’Or Féminin winner Aitana Bonmatí will be key to any success. She made more passes that ended in the final third (126) than any other player at Euro 2022, while the Spaniard (182) also ranked first for passes completed in the opposition half, ahead of England’s Keira Walsh (171).
Irene Paredes, meanwhile, is the only player to have made 1,000+ touches over the last three editions of the Euros (1,243). The Spain captain has also completed the most passes over that time (883).
Both players were involved as Spain were beaten by eventual champions England in the quarter-final three years ago, so they will be hoping for a more positive end to their tournament this time around.
Spain’s campaign begins against Iberian neighbours Portugal, and they are expected to top Group B (66.2%) while across 10,000 pre-tournament simulations by the supercomputer, they qualified for the quarters 87.7% of the time. Italy are expected to join them (48.6%), while Belgium (29.4%) and Portugal (34.4%) are the group outsiders.
England (16.1%)
England have a title to defend in Switzerland, having claimed their first major tournament win when they triumphed on home soil in 2022.
The Lionesses are now aiming to be the second team to win the Euros in back-to-back editions after Germany, who won six in a row between 1995 and 2013 and two in a row between 1989 and 1991 (one as West Germany).
And they have a coach with a winning formula. Sarina Wiegman became the first boss to win the Women’s Euros with two different nations last time out, with her record at the tournament standing at 100%; she has 12 wins from 12 games.
In fact, should England progress to the quarter-finals, Wiegman will surpass Hope Powell and Christina Theune-Meyer (15) as the coach with the most matches managed at the Euros.
While England are not favourites, they are given a 16.1% chance of retaining their crown and are expected to face Spain in another major final, with the Opta prediction model rating their likelihood of making the final on 27 July at 28.2%.
England have won each of their last 14 group stage games at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros), the longest ever such run by a European nation, and are just expected to claim top spot in Group D (40.4%).
But England will be hoping to recapture their form from their stellar run to the trophy in 2022, where they scored 22 goals (including one own goal), a record for a team in a single edition of the competition across the men’s and women’s tournaments.
They have come under criticism in recent months after struggling to maintain their form – they won three of their Nations League group games (D1 L2) – and finished second behind Spain in Group A3.
England were also rocked by the international retirements of Mary Earps and Fran Kirby prior to the tournament, with Millie Bright also ruling herself out due to personal reasons, meaning they will be without a lot of experience.
They will still have Beth Mead, who was the joint-Golden Boot winner in the last edition (six goals), and Alessia Russo, who netted 12 goals in the Women’s Super League in 2024-25.
Mead also holds the record (since 2013, from when Opta have such data on record) for the most assists at a single edition of the Euros, providing four in 2022.
England face France in their group opener, and both teams are expected to go through to the quarter-finals, but it could be tight – Les Bleues finished above Wiegman’s side in qualifying for the tournament.
France (15.3%)
France are entering a new era, with long-time captain Wendie Renard, who has made 168 appearances, and all-time leading goalscorer Eugenie Le Sommer, who has scored 94 goals in 200 caps, left out of the squad for the tournament.
But France will hope this new era sees them get over the final hurdle; they have played in more major tournaments without ever reaching a final than any other European nation (12 – seven Euros, five World Cups).
They have progressed from the group stage in each of their last eight appearances at major tournaments (four apiece) and reached the semi-finals at the Euros for the first time in 2022, falling to Germany.
In fact, France have played (26) and won (11 – D8 L7) the most games at the Euros among teams that have never reached the final.
No team recorded more shots than France at Euro 2022 (108 – level with Germany), but only three teams had a worse shooting accuracy (42%).
So, it will be up to the likes of Kadidiatou Diani and Clara Matéo to improve on that as they aim to translate their fine club form to the international stage.
Diani shone for Lyon, as she netted 16 goals in all competitions, while adding a further 10 assists. She already has five goal involvements (two goals, three assists) for France in 2025.
Mateo, meanwhile, was the top scorer in the Première Ligue, netting 18 times for Paris FC, six more than Paris Saint-Germain’s Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who is also in the squad.
France are given a 15.3% probability of winning a first major tournament by the Opta supercomputer, with their chances of reaching each of the knockout stages just marginally lower than England’s. Their hopes of reaching their first final are rated at 27.4%.
Germany (14.8%)
Germany are the most successful women’s team in the history of the Euros, winning eight titles, and they fell just short of a ninth in 2022, going down 2-1 to England in extra-time at Wembley.
And it would be no surprise to see them in the latter stages of the tournament once more, as they have appeared in 69% of the Euro finals in history (9/13), though the last edition was the first time they had lost one.
Germany have played (46) and won (36) the most games at the Euros, boasting the best win rate (78%), though they are only the fourth favourite to get their hands on the trophy (14.8%) with our model.
Only Spain finish first in their group in more of the pre-tournament simulations, with Germany qualifying as Group C winners in 48.3%, and facing Poland in their opening match.
They also have the second-highest likelihood of making the quarter-finals (77.3%) but slip further down the pecking order for the last four (40.7%) and the final (26.3%).
They have both scored more goals (102) and average more goals per game (2.2) than any other nation in the competition’s history. Germany netted 14 of those in 2022, with six of those coming from the now-retired Alexandra Popp. That tally was level with England’s Mead for the most ever netted at a single edition of the tournament, leaving big shoes to fill this summer.
Sweden (6.0%)
Sweden were the inaugural winners of the Euros back in 1984 and have never failed to make it out of the group stage, constantly keeping themselves in the mix.
Only twice in their previous 11 appearances at the tournament have they failed to make it to the last four, in 2009 and 2017, while they have finished as runners-up on three occasions.
Sweden, along with England, are the only two European nations to reach the semi-final stage in each of the last three major tournaments. They finished third at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups and lost to the Lionesses in the Euro 2022 semi-finals.
They start against Denmark but are expected to finish second in Group C, behind Germany. However, they are given a 58.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Their chances of a second Euros triumph sit at just 6.0%.
Sweden do have the experience of Kosovare Asllani to rely on. With 18, she has made more appearances at the Women’s Euros than any other current international player, starting all of those games, and also has the most assists on record (since 2013) at the tournament (6).
Best of the Rest
Like Sweden, the Netherlands are given a slim outside chance of claiming a second title, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances at 5.4%.
The Dutch have won 17 of their last 22 games across the World Cup and Euros (D2 L3), with England (20) the only European nation to win more major tournament matches since Euro 2017.
They are in Group D along with England and France, though, meaning they would first have to upset the odds to make it to the knockout stage.
The Netherlands will have WSL record goalscorer Vivianne Miedema leading their line, and she is three goals away from becoming the first man or woman to score 100 times for the nation. Robin van Persie and Memphis Depay are the record scorers for the Dutch men’s team, with 50 goals apiece – 47 fewer than Miedema.
Denmark (3.6%), Italy (3.2%) and Norway (3.2%) are also given slim chances.
The hosts have won each of the last two editions of the Euros (the Netherlands in 2017 and England in 2022), but Switzerland’s hopes of extending that run sit at just 2.0%.
Debutants Poland (0.2%) and Wales (0.1%), meanwhile, are given the smallest chance of lifting the trophy and causing an incredible upset this summer.
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Who Will Win UEFA Women’s Euro 2025? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions Opta Analyst.
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