The 36 US bases on the frontline of Iranian retribution ...Middle East

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Washington has an extensive military presence in the Middle East with about 40 bases and installations stretching from Turkey to Oman and from Saudi Arabia to Iraq. In total there are some 40,000 US personnel in the region.

Tehran faces a test of its resolve amid evidence that its ability to strike back may yet prove limited and be fraught with risk of provoking further strikes that may imperil the regime itself.

The Pentagon has spent decades on projecting American military muscle in the Middle East, and much of that effort has been aimed at containing its main regional foe in the shape of Iran.

At the core of this presence is American air power.

The USAF also has important bases at Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates, where it stations the F-22 Raptor fighter, as well as Al-Asad in Iraq, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia and Incirlik in Turkey, which hosts an arsenal of some 50 tactical nuclear bombs.

It is the force tasked with keeping the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels at bay as they attempt to harass shipping passing through the Red Sea.

Which are the most likely targets for Iran?

In 2020, the Islamic Republic attacked two US bases in Iraq – the Al-Asad air base and Al Harir base in Erbil – in retaliation for the assassination in Iraq of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The proximity of these two bases to Iran, which according to US sources can be reached within less than 15 minutes after launch of a ballistic missile, make them among the most likely targets for a reprisal attack.

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Qatar has acted as a broker in peace talks between Israel and Hamas, the Iran-backed militia which runs Gaza. Al Udeid is also used as a major base for Qatar’s own air force as well as hosting contingents from major allies, including the UK.

Smaller American bases in Syria, Jordan and Iraq may also be vulnerable to attacks using drones and other munitions fired by Iran-backed proxies. On 14 and 15 June – within 48 hours of the start of Israel’s attack on Iran – three US installations in Syria were reportedly attacked. In January last year, three American personnel were killed and 47 injured in a drone attack on Tower 22 – a US forward operating base in north Jordan.

On one level, it would be of little surprise were Iran to launch some form of assault on US forces or installations in the region or beyond.

But it has already seen its once-fearsome proxy militias of Hezbollah and Hamas vastly weakened by Israeli’s offensives since the 7 October massacres.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, said: “If the Iranians choose a broader military response against US forces, there are targets across the Middle East, especially in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but all would risk widening the conflict at a time of extreme vulnerability for the Iranian regime.”

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As one Western diplomatic source put it: “The Iranians have a long history of what they call drinking a cup of poison in order to ensure survival. It may well be that they’re preparing to drink that poison once more to live to fight another day.”

Prior to Israel’s strikes, Iran had amassed an arsenal of some 2,000 missiles of varying ranges and capabilities – ranging from Soviet-era Scud missiles to modern ballistic weapons.

Iran is also thought to have suffered many losses of the mobile missile launchers it needs to make attacks.

As a case in point, the Houthi movement in Yemen on Sunday declared a month-long ceasefire in the Red Sea to be at an end and vowed to attack American naval forces in revenge for the US attack on Iran.

What about non-military targets?

Brands ranging from Microsoft to Coca-Cola, and ExxonMobil to Starbucks have considerable operations in countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

According to one estimate, there are also 300,000 American citizens living in the Middle East and North Africa, including 80,000 in Saudi Arabia alone.

The Western diplomat said: “It has to be remembered that for any country with a presence in the Middle East, it is not just military assets that are at risk. There is also a soft underbelly of commercial interests and people getting on with their lives.”

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